Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Both the Steelers and Browns enter this AFC North showdown at 2-1 off surprising Week 3 wins, with the winner taking sole possession of first place. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 4 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

Steelers vs. Browns: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Pittsburgh bounced back from a rough Week 2 with a season-best 411 total yards in its win over Cincinnati, while Cleveland has gotten a standout rookie season from Denzel Boston in its own surprising start. Jaylen Warren has quietly been one of the more reliable pass-catching backs in the league, and this divisional rematch carries real stakes for first place in the AFC North. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this one.

 

 

 

Best Underdog NFL Picks for TNF, Week 4

Denzel Boston NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 37.5 Receiving Yards

Boston has quickly established himself as Cleveland's top receiver as a rookie, leading the team with 195 yards and two touchdowns through three games on a 91.1% snap share as the offense's full-time X. His Week 3 line was modest, just 41 yards on two catches, but that happened in a game where Cleveland's passing attack completed only four total balls to wide receivers. With his role and snap count unchanged, a return closer to his 65-yard season average looks likely against a Steelers defense yet to see this caliber of rookie receiver.

Jaylen Warren NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 23.5 Receiving Yards

Warren has been reliable out of the backfield all season, hauling in 10 of 14 targets for 110 yards across three games and clearing this receiving total in each one, with lines of 27, 34, and 49 yards. Rodgers has shown a clear willingness to check the ball down to backs and tight ends, throwing to that group on 18 of his 37 attempts in the season opener alone. With that level of trust in the short passing game and Warren locked in as the top receiving back, clearing 23.5 yards for a fourth consecutive week looks very likely.

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Steelers vs. Browns

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Boston and Warren as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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