Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? The Lions and Bills both enter 1-0 for a Thursday night showdown that also doubles as the regular-season debut of Buffalo's new Highmark Stadium. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 2 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

Lions vs. Bills: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Both of these teams opened the season in dramatic fashion, with Buffalo escaping Houston 36-31 and Detroit needing overtime to beat New Orleans 31-30. The last time these two met, back in December 2024, they combined for 90 points in a 48-42 Bills win, and the number on this one, 54.5, suggests the market expects more fireworks. Buffalo is currently a 4.5-point home favorite. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this one.

 

 

 

Best Underdog NFL Picks for TNF, Week 2

Josh Allen NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 30.5 Pass Attempts

This game projects as one of the highest-scoring matchups of the Week 2 slate, with the total sitting at 54.5, the largest number of the week. Detroit's defense just gave up 410 passing yards and three touchdowns to Tyler Shough in Week 1, a real step down in competition compared to what Allen brings to the table. Buffalo also added a legitimate difference-maker in DJ Moore, who opened his Bills career with 100 yards and a touchdown on a team-high eight targets in Week 1. With that much scoring upside on the board and a full complement of weapons at his disposal, Allen pushing well past 30.5 attempts feels like the right side.

Jared Goff NFL Underdog Pick: Lower 35.5 Pass Attempts

Detroit made its offensive priorities clear in Week 1, feeding Jahmyr Gibbs a career-high 29 carries en route to 186 yards from scrimmage, and Dan Campbell said afterward that Gibbs still has more in the tank. With David Montgomery now in Houston and new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing building the offense around his new bell cow back, there's every reason to expect the Lions to keep leaning on the ground game rather than letting Goff push toward 40 attempts again as he did in the Week 1 overtime win. A run-heavy script paired with a more controlled passing approach points toward a lighter workload for Goff through the air this time. Staying under 35.5 attempts lines up with where this offense appears to be headed.

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Lions vs. Bills

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Allen and Goff as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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