Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Week 7's Sunday slate features a veteran quarterback facing a winless Dolphins secondary and a Texans receiver with a real history of finding the end zone. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 7 slate, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Dolphins vs. Jets and Giants vs. Texans: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Geno Smith and the Jets host a 0-5 Dolphins defense that has allowed 11 passing touchdowns in five games, while Nico Collins and the Texans are double-digit home favorites against a Giants team coming off a loss to New Orleans. Both players have favorable scoring setups. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this slate.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 7
Geno Smith NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs
Smith has been one of the league's most careful passers, throwing seven touchdowns against one interception and completing 68.9% of his passes through six games, and he faces a Miami defense that has been a disaster against the pass. The 0-5 Dolphins have allowed 11 touchdown passes, a 76.6% completion rate, and a 115.0 opponent passer rating, the second-highest in the league, while recording only four sacks. Omar Cooper Jr. gives Smith a deep threat after a 103-yard game, but the Jets rank 32nd in red-zone efficiency, and the total sits near 39, so scoring chances could be limited. Clearing 1.5 touchdown passes is a matchup-driven play, and this matchup is about as good as it gets.
Nico Collins NFL Underdog Pick: Anytime TD
Collins has three touchdown catches in four games, including two in his 118-yard return against Dallas, and he has topped 70 receiving yards in three of them. Houston is a 10-point home favorite averaging 30 points per game over its two-game win streak, and Collins has recorded at least 75 yards and a touchdown in three of his past four home games. The Giants rank fifth against the pass, and Harrison and Dell are both joining the offense, so the targets will be shared, but Collins remains the top red-zone option for a Texans offense that has scored touchdowns on 10 of 18 trips. Anytime touchdown looks like a fair play for a receiver with this much scoring history.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Week 7 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Smith and Collins as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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