Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Week 6's Sunday slate features a Raiders quarterback facing a Buffalo defense that has been giving up touchdown passes and a Giants back drawing a soft Saints run defense. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 6 slate, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Bills vs. Raiders and Saints vs. Giants: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Kirk Cousins and the Raiders host a Bills team that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in three of its last four games, while Cam Skattebo and the Giants welcome a Saints defense that has struggled against the run all season. Both offenses should have chances to produce. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this slate.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 6
Kirk Cousins NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs
Cousins has been steady as a touchdown producer, throwing three scores in each of the first three games, two against the Chiefs, and one in last week's blowout loss to the Patriots, for 12 on the season. Buffalo's defense ranks 27th in the league, and it has been burned for multiple touchdown passes by Goff, Maye, and Stafford in three of its last four games. With the Raiders about 4.5-point home underdogs and a total near 54, Las Vegas should have to keep scoring to stay in it. A quarterback who has reached two touchdown passes in four of five games clearing 1.5 looks like the right side.
Cam Skattebo NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 13.5 Rushing Attempts
With Dart out for the season and Winston running the offense, the Giants have made Skattebo their engine, handing him 81 carries through five games (16.2 per game), including 20 in his Week 3 outing against Tennessee. The Saints' run defense has been the league's softest by DVOA, ranking 32nd, after allowing 128.7 yards per game through three weeks and 205 rushing yards to Atlanta in Week 4. The Giants are a slight home favorite, and even though Skattebo has yet to top 100 yards in a game, volume is the key here. Clearing 13.5 carries looks like a reasonable ask.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Week 6 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Cousins and Skattebo as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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