Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Week 5's Sunday slate features a Broncos offense getting a new play-caller and a Raiders passing game facing a Patriots secondary missing four cornerbacks. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 5 slate, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

Broncos vs. Chargers and Raiders vs. Patriots: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Sean Payton is taking back play-calling duties for a Denver offense that has struggled to run the ball, and the Broncos are favored on the road against a winless Chargers team. Kirk Cousins and the Raiders head to Foxborough to face a Patriots defense that has ruled out Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, Karon Prunty, and Channing Canada. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this slate.

 

 

 

Best Underdog NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 5

J.K. Dobbins NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 13.5 Rushing Attempts

Dobbins has been the lead back in every Denver game, with 46 carries through four weeks and double-digit attempts in each of the last three, and the offense is about to look different with Sean Payton taking over the play-calling from Davis Webb. Payton ran the offense for the Broncos from 2023 through 2025, and Dobbins averaged 15.3 carries per game over his 10 games last season. Coleman is still on injured reserve, so the carries should again run through Dobbins, with Harvey working more as a receiver. The Broncos are 3.5-point favorites on the road against a winless Chargers team, which sets up a script that favors the run. He has reached this mark only once so far, with 17 carries against the Rams, but a play-caller who wants to get back to basics makes 13.5 carries a reasonable ask.

Kirk Cousins NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 224.5 Passing Yards

Cousins leads the NFL with 11 touchdown passes through four games and is averaging 256.5 passing yards, and he threw for 365 yards last week against the Chiefs. He now faces a Patriots defense playing without cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III, plus backups Karon Prunty and Channing Canada, which leaves New England with just four healthy corners. The Raiders are 3.5-point road underdogs and should be throwing often, and the forecast calls for showers but only light wind. Clearing 224.5 yards looks very doable for a quarterback playing at this level.

 

 

 

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Week 5 Sunday

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Dobbins and Cousins as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

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