Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Week 4's Sunday slate features a Cardinals rookie who just turned in his first true workhorse game and a Vikings back who's taken over as the clear lead option. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 4 slate, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

 

 

 

Cardinals vs. Giants and Dolphins vs. Vikings: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Jeremiyah Love and the Cardinals travel to face a Giants team after his breakout Week 3, while Aaron Jones and the Vikings host a winless Dolphins team as a massive home favorite. Both backs have seen their workloads trend in the right direction over the past two weeks. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this slate.

 

Best Underdog NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 4

Jeremiyah Love NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 15.5 Rushing Attempts

Love turned in his first true workhorse game in Week 3, carrying 21 times for 90 yards while adding five catches for 19 yards and a touchdown, a season-high workload for Arizona's rookie first-rounder. That kind of usage matches the investment the Cardinals made in him as the third overall pick, and there's no sign the team plans to scale back after finally riding him as the bell cow. With that momentum building and a Giants defense that hasn't forced many teams away from the ground game, clearing 15.5 carries looks very attainable.

Aaron Jones NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 67.5 Rushing Yards

Jones has carried this offense since Jordan Mason fractured his thumb and went on injured reserve, averaging 20 carries and 81.5 rushing yards over his last two games as Minnesota's clear lead back. This matchup sets up about as well as it gets, with the Vikings sitting as an 11.5-point home favorite against a winless Dolphins team that has allowed a league-high 30.3 fantasy points per game to running backs. With Justin Jefferson also out and Minnesota leaning even harder on the ground game, clearing 67.5 rushing yards looks very reasonable for a back already averaging well beyond that over his last two games.

 

 

 

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Week 4 Sunday

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Love and Jones as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

How to Play These Underdog NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Get Over $1,000 in Bonuses

Ready to build an entry around these picks? Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code ALARM and unlock over $1,000 in bonuses to get started. Just create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and the bonus offers apply automatically, no extra steps needed. Check out all of Fantasy Alarm's active offers for even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Week 4 Sunday slate that's already stacked with value.