Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Week 3's Sunday slate features a hot-handed quarterback in Las Vegas and a Colts offense working with a thinner receiver room. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 3 slate, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

Raiders vs. Saints and Texans vs. Colts: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Kirk Cousins and the 2-0 Raiders travel to New Orleans for a potential shootout against a Saints defense that's had trouble in coverage, while Daniel Jones and the Colts host Houston with top receiver Alec Pierce now on injured reserve. Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis run game figure to be the story of that second matchup, while Cousins looks to keep his hot start going on the road. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this slate.

 

 

 

Best Underdog NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 3

Kirk Cousins NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs

Cousins has thrown for six touchdowns across Las Vegas' first two games, a big reason the Raiders are off to their best start since 2021 at 2-0. He's playing efficient, downfield football even with a still-developing group of pass catchers, and this week's matchup against New Orleans brings a defense that opened the year by allowing 469 total yards and 31 points in a shootout loss to Detroit, though the unit did clean things up in a Week 2 win over Baltimore. Brock Bowers is also expected to make his season debut after missing the first two games with a knee procedure, adding another red-zone threat to an offense that's already found the end zone through the air at a high rate. Averaging three touchdown passes per game through two weeks, Cousins clearing 1.5 scores again looks very reasonable.

Daniel Jones NFL Underdog Pick: Lower 216.5 Passing Yards

Jones has posted 166 and then 210 passing yards through his first two games back from a torn Achilles, both totals well shy of this line. Indianapolis also just placed top receiver Alec Pierce, who racked up 210 yards and three touchdowns against Houston across two games last season, on injured reserve, thinning out an already inconsistent passing attack. Jonathan Taylor has carried this offense instead, piling up 190 rushing yards through two weeks, and the Colts should keep riding him to control tempo against a Texans run defense that's had real trouble slowing anybody down. Between the receiver losses and a clear run-first plan, staying under 216.5 passing yards fits how this offense has operated.

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Week 3 Sunday

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Cousins and Jones as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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