Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today to close out Week 5? The Bills visit the Rams on Monday Night Football in a potential Super Bowl preview, with a total of 54.5 and Los Angeles a slight favorite. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Bills vs. Rams: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Both offenses have moved the ball with ease, with the Rams averaging 417 yards per game and the Bills averaging 31.8 points, and both defenses have been vulnerable. Kyren Williams has taken over the Rams' backfield, while Josh Allen has to work without Joshua Palmer and possibly DJ Moore. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this one.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for MNF, Week 5
Kyren Williams NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 68.5 Rushing Yards
Williams has been the Rams' engine on the ground, running for 85, 88, and 80 yards in the last three games and averaging 5.4 yards per carry on the season. He has also taken on a bigger role, with 70 of the team's 84 snaps and 26 touches against Philadelphia, while Corum's carries have dropped to 11 across the last two games. Buffalo's defense ranks 27th in the league in total defense and 25th in scoring defense, and the Rams are favored at home in a game with a 54.5-point total. If Los Angeles gets a lead, Corum could cut into his work, but a lead back at this level of efficiency, clearing 68.5 rushing yards looks like the right side.
Josh Allen NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 32.5 Pass Attempts
Allen's attempts have run 29, 31, 26, and 33 this season, with the high coming in last week's loss to the Patriots, and this matchup points toward the high end of that range. The game total is 54.5, the Rams offense is averaging 417 yards per game, and Buffalo's defense ranks 27th in total defense, so the Bills figure to have to keep scoring to stay in it. With DJ Moore questionable with a shoulder injury and Joshua Palmer out, Allen has leaned on Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, and he should keep the ball in the air if the game becomes a track meet. Clearing 32.5 attempts is a stretch above his average, but this is the kind of game that gets him there.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Bills vs. Rams
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Williams and Allen as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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