Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today to close out Week 4? Monday night brings a 1-2 NFC South clash in the Superdome, with New Orleans down its starting running back and Atlanta leaning on one of the league's best ground games. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

Falcons vs. Saints: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

The Saints placed Etienne on injured reserve this week, which hands Kamara the lead role in a backfield that also includes Kendre Miller, while the Falcons bring the NFL's second-ranked rushing offense into a game against a Saints run defense that ranks 27th. Atlanta's defense is the opposite story, ranking first against the run and 29th against the pass. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this one.

 

 

 

Best Underdog NFL Picks for MNF, Week 4

Alvin Kamara NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 11.5 Rushing Attempts

With Etienne on injured reserve and unable to return until Week 9, Kamara steps in as the lead back in New Orleans after carrying nine times in each of his first two games back from an MCL sprain. Etienne had averaged 10 carries across the first three weeks (nine, eight, and 13), and after he left the Week 3 loss to the Raiders, Kamara played 55% of the snaps and took 71.4% of the rushing attempts. Ian Rapoport reported that Kamara is expected to carry the load, though Kendre Miller will work in, and Atlanta has the NFL's top-ranked run defense. With the Saints slight home favorites, a bump to 12 carries is a reasonable expectation.

Brian Robinson NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 30.5 Rushing Yards

Brian Robinson has settled into a steady role as Bijan Robinson's backup, carrying nine, 11, and 10 times for 132 yards (44.0 per game), and he has topped 30.5 rushing yards in every game with totals of 31, 51, and 50, including a touchdown last week. Atlanta's rushing attack averages 173.0 yards per game, second in the NFL, and New Orleans ranks 27th against the run at 128.7 yards allowed per game, with 108-plus rushing yards surrendered in every contest. A reliable 10 carries against a defense this soft should be enough to clear 30.5 yards again.

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Falcons vs. Saints

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Kamara and Robinson as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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