NFL Week 5 kicks off tonight with the Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders matchup on Thursday Night Football. Let's now break down some NFL Underdog Fantasy picks for this Lions vs Packers TNF game. Our top NFL picks today feature Bears QB Justin Fields and Commanders RB Brian Robinson. Enjoy these NFL Underdog top plays and Thursday Night Football picks as you watch tonight's game. As always, be sure to check out the latest NFL injury updates ahead of this TNF Bears vs Commanders showdown. If you're making more NFL picks tonight or making NFL DFS lineups, check out our NFL daily projections. Now, let's dive into the top NFL Week 5 picks on Underdog Fantasy for Thursday Night Football Bears vs Commanders. 

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NFL Underdog Fantasy Top Picks

Week 4 Thursday Night Football Lions vs Packers Picks

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears – HIGHER Than 192.5 Passing Yards 

It’s been a rough start to the season for Chicago Bears fans and Justin Fields backers. The team is 0-4 after blowing a lead against the Broncos last week. Fields has nearly as many interceptions (5) as touchdowns thrown (7) and hasn’t yet taken that Year 3 leap that we all thought possible. Even so, this passing yards line is really low for a few reasons. 

First, Fields has at least 200 passing yards in three of four games so far and the only time he was lower was in a blowout loss to the Chiefs. Last week, the Bears’ passing attack looked a lot better with Fields throwing for 335 yards and four TDs while going 28-for-35 through the air. Yes, it was against the lowly Denver defense – but it’s a good sign nonetheless. 

The Washington Commanders defense is allowing 230 passing yards per game through the first four games. Three of four opposing quarterbacks have 200+ passing yards against Washington, and the only one that didn’t was Joshua Dobbs back in Week 1. We’ve also seen Russell Wilson and Jalen Hurts throw for 300+ yards in this matchup already. The Commanders have been stronger against the run and should force the Bears to throw it more here. With Washington favored by six, the game script should result in more passing attempts for Fields as Chicago likely trails and plays catch-up in the second half.

Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders – HIGHER Than 15.5 Rushing Attempts

Coming into this season, we didn’t know for sure how the Washington Commanders’ backfield workload would be split between Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. Through four games, though, it’s clear that Robinson is the early-down rusher with Gibson playing more of a pass-catcher role. Robinson has 61 rush attempts compared to Gibson’s 13. When the Commanders want to run the ball, it’s Robinson getting the majority of those carries. 

The second-year back has 16+ rush attempts in two of four games this season, but the results require some context. In Washington’s two wins over Denver and Arizona, Robinson had 19 and 18 carries. In the two losses, his rush attempts dropped to 10 and 14 with the Commanders playing from behind and throwing it more against the Bills and Eagles. For this TNF matchup vs Chicago, we should see a favorable game script for Robinson with the Commanders favored six points at home. Ideally, the offense leans on the ground game to control possession early and then later on when/if Washington is leading. 

The Bears rush defense, meanwhile, ranks 21st in DVOA so far this season and opposing offenses are realizing the weakness there. In Week 1, the Packers ran it 32 times against Chicago but carries were split between AJ Dillon, Aaron Jones, and Patrick Taylor. In Week 2, the Buccaneers ran it 34 times with lead back Rachaad White totaling 17 carries. The Chiefs had 37 rush attempts in Week 3 vs the Bears with both Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire having 15 attempts apiece. Last week, the Broncos only ran it 19 times but they were also playing from behind and throwing more. This matchup and game flow should call for close to 20 carries for Robinson with the lion’s share of rush attempts in the Commanders offense. 


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