We’re going to have strange weeks in fantasy football. Hunter Henry does nothing in Week 2 while blocking on 21% of his pass plays - in Week 4, he comes out and scores 2 touchdowns. That was the big play this week as Mark Andrews and Dalton Kincaid were off the main slate. T.J. Hockenson from our article came in the top 3 at least - as did Jake Ferguson after CeeDee Lamb left the game with an injury after one carry.

There’s no use dwelling too hard on the outcomes from previous weeks. We care about the statistics. And we now have another week of data to work with and apply towards Week 4. Three data points help us establish some trends. So let’s get into it. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Top Tier Picks For Week 4

Travis Kelce TE Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $6,100

Look, this might be the last time we bet on Travis Kelce. He hasn’t looked quite like himself lately. And the Chiefs will soon be getting Rashee Rice back, who operates in the same portion of the field as Kelce. But this week, we are willing to pay up here one last time in what should be a good situation.

Xavier Worthy is returning to offer his field-stretching prowess. He and Tyqan Thornton have the kind of speed that teams need to respect over the top. That should open things up for Kelce, who was averaging nearly 7 catches a game in weeks when the Chiefs had Worthy but did not have Rashee Rice. He’s historically put up some pretty great games against the Ravens, including a performance of 11 catches on 11 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown on January 28, 2024, against them. Brock Bowers has not looked like himself with the knee injury either, so we’re going with Kelce in the potential shootout game - he’s also $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings. 

Tyler Warren TE Indianapolis Colts - DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $5,800

The glass ceiling on rookie tight ends has long since been smashed, so we’re not afraid to use them, even early in the season. Tyler Warren has already set the tone this year with his strong usage, so why shy away from him now? His 81.6% route participation is top 7 for a tight end, and his 23.9% target share is currently third. His 2.41 yards per route run is also second among qualified tight ends behind only Tucker Kraft. The profile is rock solid.

This week, we expect the Colts to be without Alec Pierce, which will see Adonai Mitchell elevated. Josh Downs is a part-time player out of the slot, so not the target competition we expected. This matchup with the Rams also has a 50-point over/under, so it could create the shootout conditions where fantasy thrives. We love him on DraftKings, especially as he’s been one of the most heavily featured tight ends so far on screens with three and three games. That’s free real estate. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For NFL Week 4

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints - DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $5,700

I don’t have a ton of sources out there, but I do know who to check with on some Bills rumblings. And the word on the street is that the Bills will likely be conservative with Matt Milano’s peck injury and hold him out again. When Matt Milano is playing, the Bills are a tough matchup for tight ends. When he is not, it’s a much softer matchup. 

He played the first two weeks this year, shutting down tight ends. Last week, they played the Dolphins, who haven’t used their tight ends with Waller out. That leaves the Bills as the number one-ranked team vs. TE, which will scare some people off - but they are not the best team without Milano. And Juwan Johnson is the second-most-targeted tight end in the league so far this year with 28. If Milano is a go for this weekend, we might change this pick, but as of now, we like it. 

Kyle Pitts, TE New England Patriots, DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $5,200

I’m not worried about this toe situation for Kyle Pitts. If anything, the questionable tag will keep people off him. Last week, he was also limited with the toe during the week, then had no injury designation for the game. And he went out and ran 43 of 45 snaps. In fact, on the season, the only tight end who has a higher route participation than Pitts’s 90.5% is the great Trey McBride (94.4%).

Not only does Pitts have a high route participation, but he also has a decent target share. He had three receptions vs. man, and they’ve actually thrown him a screen so far, which was severely lacking in years past. With his 99th percentile speed, he always has a shot to take one of those and scamper for 50+ yards - he had two such plays last year. Last week was an unmitigated disaster for the Falcons, but that happens sometimes. Washington has been a good matchup for tight ends, as we saw with the monster game for Tucker Kraft, so maybe Pitts can follow in those footsteps.   

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Value Picks For NFL Week 4

Chig Okonkwo TE Tennessee Titans - DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $4,900

We’ve said it time and time again. If we believe a player is underpriced continuously, then we aren’t going to stop using them until that price changes. If it ain’t broke, then we hope they don’t fix the pricing. Last week, Chig Okonkwo was $3,400, and he finished as the TE6 out of the main slate options - we’ll take that.

This week, he’s once again priced as the TE14 on the main slate. And this is a slate with not only the typical Thursday and Sunday night football but also an international game and two Monday night games that take away guys like Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson, and Tucker Kraft. Yet they are still going to find 13 guys to price ahead of Okonkwo?

The rationale is the same here. This guy is running more routes this year than ever in his career. He’s got 97th percentile speed so he can break off a big play at any moment. He’s been paying off his price for us each week in cash games with what he’s doing each week. But one of these weeks could see a big touchdown.

Cade Otton TE, Carolina Panthers - DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $4,900

You might think I’m crazy for this one. We are going to consider a guy who has scored zero points in two out of three of these games? Yes, the optics aren’t good - but hear me out.

The deployment for Cade Otton has actually been good, believe it or not. He’s literally TE3 in route participation at nearly 89% on the year, which is behind only Trey McBride and Kyle Pitts. He’s oddly not being asked to pass block a lot, even with the offensive line injuries - under 10% in each game. In fact, he’s been running 68% of his routes from a WR spot.

The truth is that Otton generally has not been good when the Buccaneers have two good WRs. He’s been good in the past when Chris Godwin or Mike Evans has been out. But this year, the Bucs have just had too many good WRs. Until now. With Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan out already and at best on a partial snap share, we don’t see how Cade Otton can be left out again. So we’re considering this contrarian play that no one will be using, given how much his price has fallen. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Bonus Dart Throw NFL Week 4

Tommy Tremble TE, Carolina Panthers - DraftKings: $2,700 | FanDuel: $4,400

Who doesn’t love a good bonus dart throw in the min price range? And this might surprise some folks, as I have historically not been a Tommy Tremble fan. A lot of that stems from my belief that Ja’Tavion Sanders is the better pass-catching tight end and deserves to play more. The Panthers might like their tight end rotation, but it generally holds each of them back from reaching their full potential upside. We want one clear pass-catching tight end for fantasy.

When Tommy Tremble was out last year, Ja’Tavion Sanders had some games with 5, 6, 7 targets. But the same has been true when Sanders has been out as well. In Week 13 last year, when Sanders was out, Tremble caught 5 of 8 targets for 77 yards. The Panthers traded away Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette has been nicked up, and Jalen Coker is still on IR. That saw David Moore step into the WR2 chair last week, and he’s not a big target threat. The Patriots' defense has allowed 20+ points in all three weeks, and if Christian Gonzales is back this week to cover Tetairoa McMillan, that could mean more underneath targets for everyone else. 

NFL DFS TE Fades For Week 4

Mark Andrews, TE Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $4,300 | FanDuel: $5,300

We usually aren’t a fan of chasing last week’s points. Too many folks hop on board, and the ownership can be high, especially after a Monday Night Football game that everyone watched. We’ll do it sometimes if we like the conditions, but we don’t really like the conditions here. The Chiefs have made Mark Andrews a priority in every single matchup he’s had with them, as you can see below per Pro Football Reference. Whether or not Isaiah Likely is playing, I’m probably not chasing last week’s performance. 

 

Dalton Kincaid, TE Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $4,500 | FanDuel: $5,600

Folks might be shocked by this one, as I’m a fan of the player. But we have to be unbiased when it comes to DFS. And, from a statistical standpoint, Dalton Kincaid doesn’t really have the usage we like to see from a guy who is priced as a top 5 DFS option this week. They are pricing based on results, which TDs have played a big part in. But Kincaid is actually TE28 in route participation, and he’s not even a TE1 in target share. He’s still a solid option for us in weekly leagues, but if I’m paying up in DFS, I need a guy running more than 60% of the routes.Â