Did you have the FOMOs about missing fantasy championship week? Are you feeling a little left out? Well don’t worry my sweet little fantasy football friend. Because DFS is here for you. I’m here for you. The #FAmily, is here for you. And we aren’t going away. Not now, not through the NFL playoffs. So let’s load up some lineups and see if we can get some hundred dollar bills to dry those tears with.
Top Tier: the safest and most expensive guys available if you want to pay up
Mid Tier: affordable players that offer the best bang for your buck
Value Tier: the bargain bin players that are risky by nature but can have the huge upside in terms of value created
Fades: The guys we feel are the worst value proposition that you should actively avoid
Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!
NFL DFS TE Top Tier
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
We’re doing things a little differently here in the top tier this week because its kind of a unique situation with the top options. On each website, there is a different tight end I like best. For instance, Travis Kelce is the guy I’m using on FanDuel. He’s only 13.8% of your budget over there whereas on DraftKings and Yahoo, he’s 16-17%. George Kittle on FanDuel is 12.33% and T.J. Hockenson is 11.67%, so you might as well just pay up for Kelce.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
On Yahoo, I like George Kittle. Both Yahoo and FanDuel are half-PPR which is the preferred format for Kittle since he makes his money on A. touchdowns (two in both of the last two games) and B. big plays (over the last five years, no tight end has more 40+ yard plays than George Kittle and he’s the only tight end with MULTIPLE 70+ yard plays — of which he has three). Kelce is 17.5% of your budget on Yahoo, Kittle is 10%, and Hockenson is 9.5%, so this is where you use Kittle.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
On DraftKings, however, I like Hockenson. Kelce is 16.2% of your budget, Kittle is 11.8%, and Hockenson is 9.8%. DraftKings is full-PPR, which is the better format for Hockenson as he has three games with double-digit targets this year (Kittle has one and it wasn’t with Brock Purdy) and he’s coming off a 16-target game. Jaire Alexander will be on Justin Jefferson in a game that should be high scoring so Hockenson should have plenty of opportunity for targets in this one. We don’t always separate out the plays like this but, this week, it makes sense to do so.
NFL DFS TE Mid Tier
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
Over the last four weeks, Evan Engram leads all tight ends in targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy points. He’s made us a lot of money this year. So there is no more fitting play in fantasy championship week than Evan Engram against the lowly Houston Texans. He’s about as safe as you are going to get yet he’s not priced up with his “elite” counterparts. Let’s take advantage of that. He’s around 9%-9.5% on all three platforms so not a bad play on either of them.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Last week, we hated Cole Kmet in a game that saw 20+ MPH winds. He was in the Fades section. This week we love him. The game will be played in a dome in Detroit. The Lions are a bottom five team vs. the tight end. The over/under is 52.5 points so there is shootout potential. Cole Kmet plays virtually every snap (over the last four games he’s literally only missed three snaps). Oh, and the last time these two teams played, Cole Kmet had a 35% target share and scored two touchdowns. It's a smash spot for Cole Kmet in the mid tier. He’s 8.5%-9% of your budgets on all formats so pick your poison. He’s slightly cheaper than Engram on all three so, if you need to find a little money somewhere, it’s not a bad pivot.
NFL DFS TE Value Tier
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
Look, Trey McBride isn’t Zach Ertz. But he’s being used like him. He plays a massive snap share and he also plays a good chunk of snaps at a WR spot. In fact, he played 31 snaps at WR last week to 28 in-line so more WR snaps than TE technically. We’ll take that. Also, Colt McCoy is back. In the two games McCoy started, he targeted Trey McBride 11 times. Five or six targets is more than you are going to get from anyone else in this price range. I mean, McBride is literally the bare minimum price on Yahoo. And he’s not far off on the other two.
EDIT Colt McCoy has been ruled OUT after a set back with his concussion. Trey McBride is off the menu. Added a bonus play.
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We had been calling for it all year and it looks like it has finally happened. Cade Otton has essentially pried the full job away from Cameron Brate. In fact, Cameron Brate only played 8 snaps which is fewer than Ko Kieft (14) and Kyle Rudolph (11). But Cade Otton dwarfed them all with his 68(!) snaps and his 43 routes run. Otton is more expensive than McBride on Yahoo and FanDuel so we like McBride over there but Otton is cheaper than McBride on DraftKings so that’s where we are going to utilize him.
BONUS DART THROW
Jelani Woods, Indianapolis Colts
We are adding a bonus play for this week based on recent news - Kylen Granson was just ruled OUT. In games with Kylen Granson, Jelani Woods has never played more than 38% of the snaps. In the two games without Granson? He's played 63% and 64%. In Week 12 Woods had 8 catches on 9 targets for 98 yards and last week he had 3 catches on 5 targets for 43 yards. Even 3 catches for 43 yards isn't bad at his price of $2,800 we've seen how high the upside can be and the Giants aren't a bad matchup.
NFL DFS TE Fades
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
People are really excited to see Dallas Goedert back - I am too. But this is not the spot to utilize him. The Saints are the top team vs. the tight end and it’s not all that close. Demario Davis, Marcus Maye, the Honey Badger - it’s all bad news up the middle. DeVonta Smith has really hit his stride and A.J. Brown is A.J. Brown, so I’m really not interested in paying up for a guy coming off an injury and coming off a three target game in a terrible matchup. A matchup that isn’t even particularly meaningful for the Saints.
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
I know what you are thinking. Gerald Everett is coming off a rough game so will have low ownership. He’s the cheapest he’s been all year. And he popped for us in the past. But this guy was rarely playing a full snap share, even when healthy. He hasn’t played more than 80% of the snaps all season. The one thing we liked about him was that Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams were hurt. Now, he’s behind Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for targets. Either pay up for the mid-range guys or pay down for the value guys. Don’t settle for a bad play in no man’s land.