Splash Picks NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 1: Player Projections & Fantasy Picks, 9/13

Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? Week 1's Sunday slate features a Jaguars offense entering year two of its system and a Falcons team turning to its third-string quarterback on the road. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for Sunday's Week 1 action, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.

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Browns vs. Jaguars and Falcons vs. Steelers: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars host the Browns in a home opener with one of the deeper receiving groups of Lawrence's career, while Atlanta travels to Pittsburgh already down to its third quarterback option after injuries to both Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa. Both games carry real question marks, whether that's how far Jacksonville's offense has come in year two under Liam Coen or how conservative Atlanta needs to play it behind a fill-in starter. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this slate.

Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 1

Trevor Lawrence NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs

There's real substance behind the belief that Trevor Lawrence is ready to take another step in Year 2 under Liam Coen. He capped last season with a franchise-record 38 total touchdowns and was nearly unstoppable down the stretch, throwing 19 scores against only seven picks during Jacksonville's eight-game winning streak to close the year. The engine behind that surge, Parker Washington, Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers, and Brenton Strange, is fully intact, while Travis Etienne's departure to the New Orleans Saints in free agency leaves the ground game in the hands of an unproven backfield of Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez That uncertainty on the ground shifts more of the workload to Lawrence's arm, and clearing multiple passing touchdowns against a Browns defense still working out its identity up front looks like a strong bet.

Cooper Rush NFL Splash Picks Pick: Lower 30.5 Pass Attempts

With both Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa out of the picture with injuries, Atlanta is turning to its third option at quarterback in Cooper Rush for a road opener against a tough Steelers defense that returns T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward up front and added corner Jamel Dean and safety Jaquan Brisker over the offseason. That's not the ideal recipe for a pass-heavy game plan, and it's exactly the kind of spot where a coaching staff tends to protect its quarterback by leaning on the run. Rush doesn't have the arm talent or rapport with this offense to be trusted with a heavy workload right out of the gate, especially against a defense built to make life difficult on unproven passers. Look for Atlanta to ride Bijan Robinson and keep this one on the ground as much as possible, which should keep Rush's attempts in check.

Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Week 1 Sunday

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Lawrence and Rush as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

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