Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? The 5-2 Jaguars visit the 4-4 Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night, with Jacksonville a roughly 9.5-point favorite and the total near 40. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 9 matchup, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.
Jaguars vs. Ravens: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Baltimore's quarterback room has been decimated by injuries, leaving undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano to start against the NFL's top rush defense by DVOA, and the Ravens are heavy underdogs. We like the Baltimore picks to reflect that game script. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this matchup.
Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for TNF, Week 9
Derrick Henry NFL Splash Picks Pick: Lower 18.5 Rushing Attempts
Henry is the NFL's leader with 158 carries, but the Ravens' losing streak has pulled his workload down to 17, 17, and 11 carries over the last three games. Baltimore is a 9.5-point underdog against a Jacksonville team that ranks first in rush defense DVOA and gives up just 77.4 rushing yards per game, and an offense scoring 11 points per game is not likely to sustain long drives. Defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton's injury gives Baltimore some hope, but a negative game script should hold down Henry's carries. Under 18.5 rushing attempts looks like a good bet.
Joe Fagnano NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 1.5 Interceptions
Fagnano's first career start comes on a short week against a Jacksonville team that shares the league's best turnover margin at plus-7. He threw an interception and lost a fumble in his debut against Buffalo, throwing 21 passes while taking four sacks and 12 hits behind a battered Baltimore line, and he is still working through an ankle injury. The Jaguars rank fourth in overall defensive DVOA and forced three turnovers last week, including two interceptions, and with the Ravens roughly 9.5-point underdogs, Baltimore may have to throw its way back into the game. Two interceptions is a tall order, but this is a favorable setup for a high-variance rookie.
Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Jaguars vs. Ravens
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Henry and Fagnano as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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