Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? The winless Buccaneers visit the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football with an undrafted rookie at quarterback, and Dallas favored by 8.5 points. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 5 matchup, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

The Cowboys are one of the NFL's highest-scoring teams and have seen the over hit in all four games, while the Buccaneers are 0-4 with Baker Mayfield out and Jalon Daniels making his second career start on a short week. Dallas should be able to lean on its lead back for volume, and Tampa Bay's rookie quarterback has done most of his damage with his legs so far. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this matchup.

 

 

 

Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for TNF, Week 5

Javonte Williams NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 17.5 Rushing Attempts

Williams has taken 62 of Dallas' carries through four games, and no other Cowboys back has more than nine. After 24 carries in the first two games, he has been given 19 in each of the last two, including a three-touchdown day against Houston, and he has accounted for 18 of the team's 25 red-zone rushing attempts. Dallas has often been playing from behind, but this week it is an 8.5-point home favorite against a 0-4 Tampa Bay team, and a comfortable lead means Williams should see plenty of clock-killing carries late. The Buccaneers' third-ranked run defense may hold his yardage down, but the volume should be there to get him to 18 carries.

Jalon Daniels NFL Splash Picks Pick: Lower 181.5 Passing Yards

Daniels' first career start showed a quarterback who does more with his legs than his arm, producing 148 passing yards on 27 attempts with two interceptions and three sacks, while adding 55 yards on eight scrambles. He is working with an offense that averages 278.3 total yards per game and has surrendered 16 sacks through four weeks, and he makes his first road start on a short week while Mayfield recovers from a dislocated thumb. Even if Tampa Bay has to chase points, his mobility is the bigger part of his game, and the Cowboys have given up the most rushing yards of any defense to dual-threat quarterbacks. With his only start sitting well below this line, the under at 181.5 looks like the better side.

Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Williams and Daniels as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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