Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? Both the Steelers and Browns enter this AFC North showdown at 2-1 off surprising Week 3 wins, with the winner taking sole possession of first place. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 4 matchup, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.

Steelers vs. Browns: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Pittsburgh bounced back from a rough Week 2 with a season-best 411 total yards in its win over Cincinnati, while Cleveland has gotten a standout rookie season from Denzel Boston in its own surprising start. Aaron Rodgers has been a high-volume passer all season, and this divisional rematch carries real stakes for first place in the AFC North. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this matchup.

 

 

 

Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for TNF, Week 4

Denzel Boston NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 37.5 Receiving Yards

As a rookie, Boston has already claimed the role of Cleveland's top receiver, leading the team with 195 yards and two scores through three games while playing a full-time X on 91.1% of the offense's snaps. He was quiet in Week 3, just 41 yards on two catches, but Cleveland's passing attack only completed four total balls to wide receivers that day, making it more about game flow than a dip in his role. With that snap share and target priority intact, a bounce-back to his season average of roughly 65 yards per game is very realistic against a Steelers defense facing this caliber of rookie for the first time.

Aaron Rodgers NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 34.5 Pass Attempts

Rodgers has thrown the ball at a steady, heavy clip all season, attempting 40 passes in Week 1 and 39 in Week 2 before Pittsburgh's offense found its footing in a Week 3 win over Cincinnati. The 42-year-old has relied on a high-frequency, quick-passing approach for most of the year, and Cleveland's offense has had trouble putting together long, sustained drives, which typically means more possessions for Rodgers to work with. Clearing 34.5 attempts has been the standard through three weeks, and Thursday's matchup doesn't look like the spot where that changes.

Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Steelers vs. Browns

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Boston and Rodgers as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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