The 2026 college football season rolls on! Saturday’s matchup between #1 Texas and #14 Tennessee headlines the CFB Week 4 slate. That means it’s time to dive into #1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee predictions before the game kicks off. We’ll preview the game, break down the matchup, and dish out expert #1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee picks. Plus, get to know the latest #1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee odds ahead of Saturday’s showdown. 

#1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee Predictions for CFB Week 4, Saturday 9/26

Before we get to our #1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee predictions, let’s set the stage for Saturday’s game. Texas enters as a 5-point road favorite with a 54.5 over/under. Tennessee is a live home dog, though, as the Vols try to knock off the No. 1-ranked team in the nation. 

Without further ado, let’s dive into our #1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee picks. There’s a certain betting angle worth locking in before Saturday’s matchup kicks off. Good luck! 

#1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee Expert Pick: Under 54.5 Total Points (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

Texas is rightfully favored on the road here, but Tennessee is very live to pull off the home upset. It’s very tempting to take the Volunteers to cover the spread, but let’s look at the game total instead. This projects to be a lower-scoring matchup with both defenses setting the tone. 

Tennessee can light up the scoreboard, as evidenced by its 40+ points in all three games so far this year. However, this will be a tougher test against an upper-tier Texas defense. Led by new coordinator Will Muschamp, the Longhorns currently rank 23rd nationally in defensive EPA/Play and 33rd in defensive success rate. 

Against Ohio State earlier this season, Texas bowed up defensively in the second half en route to the comeback win. The Longhorns allowed just 3.9 yards per carry and a 53% completion rate overall in the victory. They mostly limited a dangerous offense, outside of star WR Jeremiah Smith. 

Texas can do something similar to Tennessee. The Volunteers have a talented quarterback in Faizon Brandon, but the true freshman could struggle a bit against this defense. The Longhorns will likely stack the box to stop the run, as Tennessee deploys a run-heavy scheme, and force Brandon to make plays. It may lead to more unsuccessful drives than we’re used to seeing from the Vols. 

On the other side, Texas has plenty of offensive talent itself. However, Arch Manning and Co. notoriously struggled on the road last year. The Longhorns averaged just 19.8 PPG on the road last season. One of those was a 45-38 overtime win against Mississippi State. If we take that game out, they averaged only 13.5 PPG across the four other road matchups. 

Manning and Texas could struggle to throw it against Tennessee, which ranks 31st in defensive EPA/Pass this year. The Vols can ramp up the pressure and force Manning into bad throws, especially if they focus coverage on stud wideout Cam Coleman. It also doesn’t help that lead RB Hollywood Smothers is questionable to play, which hurts the effectiveness of Texas’ run game. 

 

 

 

How To Watch #1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee CFB Week 4

  • Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
  • Time: 12:00 PM ET 
  • Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
  • TV: ABC

#1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee Odds, Spread, Total & Betting Lines

After checking out our #1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee predictions, let’s take a look at the betting lines for this college football matchup. Here are the latest #1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee odds from BetMGM Sportsbook ahead of Saturday’s showdown. 

  • Spread: Texas -5 (-118) | Tennessee +5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Texas -210 | Tennessee +170
  • Over/Under: 54.5 (Over -112 | Under -105)

 

 

 

#1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee Injury Report & Latest News

Texas Longhorns:

  • RB Hollywood Smothers – Questionable
  • TE Nick Townsend – Out
  • DL Justus Terry – Out
  • DB Xavier Filsaime – Out
  • OL Jordan Coleman – Out

Tennessee Volunteers:

  • RB Javin Gordon – Questionable
  • DL Nathan Robinson – Questionable
  • TE Ethan Davis – Out
  • WR Joakim Dodson – Out
  • LB Jaedon Harmon – Out
  • DB Edrees Farooq – Out
  • DB Dylan Lewis – Out

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