Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? Week 3's Sunday slate features a receiver on one of the hottest starts in football and a Colts offense working with a thinner receiver room. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 3 slate, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.

Raiders vs. Saints and Texans vs. Colts: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Chris Olave and the Saints host a 2-0 Raiders team in what projects as a potential shootout at the Caesars Superdome, while Daniel Jones and the Colts welcome Houston with top receiver Alec Pierce now on injured reserve. Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis run game figure to be the story of that second matchup, while Olave looks to keep building on one of the best starts of any receiver in football. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this slate.

 

 

 

Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 3

Chris Olave NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 77.5 Receiving Yards

Few receivers have been better than Olave through two weeks, with 18 catches on 23 targets for 268 yards and a touchdown, a pace trailing only Amon-Ra St. Brown among all NFL wideouts. He's done a lot of that damage from the slot, where his 105 yards rank third leaguewide, and this week he draws a Raiders defense that ranks 29th in the league in yards allowed to slot receivers. Rookie first-rounder Jordyn Tyson is set to miss a month or two with a hamstring injury, leaving no threat to Olave's target share as New Orleans' clear top option. A receiver averaging 134 yards per game, clearing 77.5 in a matchup this favorable looks very attainable.

Daniel Jones NFL Splash Picks Pick: Lower 216.5 Passing Yards

Through two games back from his torn Achilles, Jones has thrown for 166 and then 210 yards, both comfortably below this number. Indianapolis also just lost top receiver Alec Pierce, who put up 210 yards and three scores against Houston across two games a year ago, to injured reserve, further thinning a passing attack that hasn't been especially explosive to begin with. Jonathan Taylor has been the driving force of this offense, already up to 190 rushing yards through two weeks, and the Colts figure to lean on him even more to control the game against a Texans defense that can't stop the run. With the receiver room down a key piece and the offense built around the ground game, staying under 216.5 passing yards looks very likely.

Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Week 3 Sunday

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Olave and Jones as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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