Sleeper NFL Picks For MNF, 1/12: Player Projections & Fantasy Picks

Our Sleeper strategy for this Monday Night Football showdown focuses on game script correlations. We are targeting a volume-heavy approach for a veteran quarterback forced to abandon the run and a reliable tight end acting as a security blanket in a hostile environment. With the Texans' elite run defense forcing the action and the Steelers likely playing from behind, we expect heavy volume for our featured players.

Sleeper Fantasy Football Picks for MNF, 1/12

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Dalton Schultz Sleeper Fantasy NFL Pick: More Than 4.5 Receptions

Dalton Schultz has established himself as C.J. Stroud’s primary safety valve, especially in high-pressure situations. While the Steelers boast a formidable pass rush led by T.J. Watt, their aggression often leaves voids in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field—Schultz's sweet spot.

The Steelers' defense ranks 13th in Pass DVOA, making them a solid but beatable unit through the air compared to their stout run defense (6th in Rush DVOA ). With the ground game likely facing resistance, Stroud will turn to the quick passing game to move the chains. Schultz has been a target magnet in "must-have" situations, and 5 catches is a standard workload for him in a competitive playoff atmosphere.

Aaron Rodgers Sleeper Fantasy NFL Pick: More Than 33.5 Pass Attempts

This is a pure game-script play rooted in defensive metrics. The Texans' defense is elite, ranking #2 in Rush Defense DVOA (-20.0%). It is nearly impossible to run the ball consistently against them, meaning the Steelers' traditional ground-and-pound attack will likely hit a wall early.

Combined with the fact that Pittsburgh is a 3-point underdog, Aaron Rodgers will be forced to drop back often to keep pace. Even if the efficiency isn't there against Houston's #2-ranked Pass Defense, the sheer necessity of moving the ball will dictate volume. Negative game script plus an inability to run equals 40+ dropbacks for Rodgers tonight.

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