Sleeper NFL Picks For AFC Championship Sunday, 1/25: Player Projections & Fantasy Picks

Our Sleeper strategy for this AFC Championship showdown focuses on game script correlations. We are looking at the quarterbacks to define the narrative of this game. We are targeting a scoring prop for a young quarterback who has found his stride and a volume-heavy approach for a backup quarterback forced to throw due to a stifling run defense. With the Patriots' defense forcing the action and the Broncos potentially playing from behind or unable to run, we expect specific outcomes for our featured signal callers.

Sleeper Fantasy Football Picks for AFC Championship Sunday

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Drake Maye Sleeper Fantasy NFL Pick: More Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Drake Maye has silenced critics during this postseason run. The sophomore quarterback has shown poise beyond his years, coming off a stellar performance where he threw three touchdown passes against a tough Texans defense in the Divisional Round. Facing a Denver defense that may force him to throw to keep up, Maye will have opportunities in the red zone.

The Patriots have been creative near the goal line, often using play action to free up tight ends. Two passing scores is a solid bet for the QB leading this Cinderella run.

Jarrett Stidham Sleeper Fantasy NFL Pick: More Than 30.5 Pass Attempts

This number might seem high for a backup, but game script is the key factor here. If the Patriots take an early lead, or if their run defense continues to allow fewer than 70 yards per game and stifles Denver’s ground attack early, Stidham will be forced to drop back.

Additionally, short, high percentage throws essentially serving as long handoffs are a staple of the offense when protecting a backup QB. Stidham should rack up attempts simply by trying to move the chains methodically underneath the coverage. Negative game script plus an inability to run equals 31 or more dropbacks for Stidham on Sunday.

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