Super Bowl 57 DFS Showdown Playbook: Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
Published: Feb 12, 2023
Updated: Feb 13, 2023
Super Bowl 57 is finally here and we have one last shot at winning some money playing NFL DFS. The stage is set for a fantastic match-up between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles and there are countless ways you can build your DFS showdown lineup. The trick is to follow your narrative. If you think the Eagles are going to win, make a decision as to how you think they do it and build your lineup that way. Same if you think the Chiefs do it. Build a game script in your mind and follow through with it with you lineup selections. Far too many people put together lineups without thinking about game flow, so be a step ahead of them, map it out in your head and build accordingly.
Now before we begin, for those who are new to the process, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to the Super Bowl 57 action.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -1.5
- O/U: 50.5
- Weather: retractable roof, but if open – low-70s, partly cloudy with winds blowing SSW at 10 mph
Kansas City Chiefs
- Kadarius Toney, WR – ankle (questionable but expected to play)
- Lane Johnson, RT – groin (questionable but expected to play)
- Avonte Maddox, DB – toe (questionable but expected to play)
2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings
Kansas City Chiefs
- vs Pass: 20th
- vs Run: 15th
- vs Pass: 1st
- vs Run: 21st
**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.
Patrick Mahomes, QB Kansas City Chiefs
No one needs to be convinced that Mahomes is a fantastic play in the top spot of your showdown lineup and if you do, you may want to be careful with how heavy you play this week. He put in another full practice on Wednesday and no longer carries an injury designation, so it looks like the two weeks off in between the Conference Championship and Super Bowl did the trick. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in 11 of 19 games this year, over 400 twice and has thrown for at least two touchdowns in all but five games between the regular season and the playoffs. We expect him to be throwing again this week, so lock him down.
Jalen Hurts, QB Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts will probably be the highest-owned in the captain’s seat this week because of the rushing upside, but we also expect him to throw more than usual this week which could lead to an explosive stat-line. This season and throughout the playoffs, Hurts has averaged 25.8 DK points and 24,84 FD points and all of his props – rushing yards, passing yards, even anytime touchdowns – indicate another stellar performance.
Travis Kelce, TE Kansas City Chiefs
If you’re concerned that the Eagles ranked sixth in DVOA against the tight end and will likely double-team Kelce, then you probably faded him last week as the Bengals ranked even higher in DVOA. That didn’t turn out so well for then as Cincinnati still gave up seven catches for 78 yards and a touchdown to the Chiefs’ most-prolific pass-catcher. Mahomes to Kelce is about as automatic as you can get and if the Chiefs are going to win this game, they will need a very strong effort from him.
A.J. Brown, WR Philadelphia Eagles
Brown had an amazing first season with Philadelphia, posting career-bests in targets (145), receptions (88) and receiving yards (1,496). He also tied his career-best in touchdowns with 11. His numbers in recent games look mediocre for his price-tag, but you have to remember he was bothered by a hip issue and the game script for the Eagles playoff games did not call for a lot of throwing by Hurts. This week will be different as the Eagles are going to have to throw the ball and the Chiefs rank 31st in DVOA against the opposition’s Np. 1 receiver and have allowed an average of 81.2 receiving yards per game to them this season.
Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays
DeVonta Smith, WR Philadelphia Eagles
If you are fading Brown because of his price or if you’re stacking Eagles, then understand Smith is going to be a very popular play this week. The match-up on paper isn’t as tasty as Brown’s is and he was pretty quiet against the 49ers, but he caught 6-for-61 and a touchdown against the Giants and closed out the regular season with four 100-yard efforts and four touchdowns over his last six games. It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs keep L’Jarius Snead and Trent McDuffie on the outside instead of leaving rookie Jaylen Watson on Smith.
Dallas Goedert, TE Philadelphia Eagles
The season started off well for Goedert as he and Hurts connected for 544 yards and three touchdowns on 43 catches through the first nine games. But injury struck and Goedert missed the next five weeks. Upon his return, Hurts missed time with his shoulder injury, so the two have been rekindling their on-field relationship over the last three games. In that short span, Goedert has averaged six targets per game and caught 16 passed for 127 yards and a touchdown, so things are looking strong. The Chiefs ranked 19th in DVOA against the tight end and allowed an average of 50.4 receiving yards per game, so opportunity is definitely knocking here.
Miles Sanders, RB Philadelphia Eagles
Talk about a magical season! Sanders posted career-highs in rushing attempts (259), rushing yards (1,269) and touchdowns (11) this year and averaged 4.9 yards per carry when most people were writing him off after failing to find the end zone at all in 2021. He is also coming off a two-touchdown performance in the Conference Championship last week and everyone seems to be high on him for the Super Bowl. Just be cautious. Using Sanders means you expect the Eagles to be ahead in this game and will run the ball fairly heavily. If that’s your narrative, then go for it. But keep in mind that running room might be tough for Sanders who usually runs between the tackles. To neutralize players like Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap, you usually want to run the ball to the outside or utilize more dump-off screens. That’s not exactly Sanders’ wheelhouse, so just take note of that.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB Philadelphia Eagles
While Gainwell’s heavier-than-normal workload over these last few weeks can be attributed to game script and the Eagles’ caution on letting Hurts run all over with a bum shoulder, you can also look to what was written up above about Sanders. Outside-zone work and dump-off screens are in Gainwell’s wheelhouse and if Sanders is struggling to break through between the tackles, we could see more work for Gainwell. Also, if you believe the Chiefs grab and hold a lead during this game, the Eagles should have to throw more which puts Gainwell in a better position to out-snap Sanders.
Isiah Pacheco, RB Kansas City Chiefs
Brought along slowly throughout the year, Pacheco has looked fantastic over his last few games and he is definitely blossoming into a favorite of Andy Reid’s. Just look at the snap share from the Conference Championship and his 10 carries with five receptions. He won’t completely supplant Jerick McKinnon, but considering that you need a strong between-the-tackles running game to beat the Eagles, Pacheco should see strong decent touches, especially if the Chiefs come out swinging, score early and take a lead.
Jerick McKinnon, RB Kansas City Chiefs
If you believe the Eagles are going to be leading in this game throughout, then McKinnon makes sense. He still profiles as the better pass-blocker, so If the Chiefs find themselves in a hole, they will go even heavier with the pass thus keeping McKinnon on the field more. We’ll also see our fair share of dump-offs, especially with how string the Eagles pass-rush is. He was the darling of DFS for a good chunk of the season, so if you are on that Eagles-win narrative, he’s your guy.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Kansas City Chiefs
He’s been putting in full practices and doesn’t seem to have an injury designation, so it looks like the knee is fine. Early in the season, he developed into Mahomes’ top target behind Kelce and had a few really good games, including two 100-yard efforts each with a touchdown. The problem, as always is that we just don’t know who Mahomes will lock onto, or even if he even will. He could spread it around, so JuJu, like all of the Chiefs receivers, comes with substantial risk. Could be boom or bust.
Kadarius Toney, WR Kansas City Chiefs
If Toney can actually stay healthy and on the field, he could have an explosive game against the Eagles. Reid loves his gimmicks, a lot of pre-snap motion and a lot of misdirection. Confusing the defense and then getting the ball into Toney’s hands could be exciting to watch. There’s been a lot of hype about him and his potential role in the Chiefs’ game plan, but as with any receiver from this team, there is a lot of risk.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Kansas City Chiefs
Two schools of thought on MVS right now. First, is that you fade him because everyone will be on him after his explosive performance during the Conference Championship. The second is assuming everyone else is going to think that same thought so you lock him in as a contrarian play and hope Mahomes continues to target him. It would be surprising to see him even come close to the 116-yard with a touchdown game, but if you’re building multiple lineups, you may want to have some exposure.
Quez Watkins, WR Philadelphia Eagles
Watkins doesn’t see a world of targets, but he’s consistently playing over 50-percent of the snaps. If we expect Snead and McDuffie to be preoccupied with Brown and Smith, that would leave Watkins to face Watson which would be a somewhat favorable match-up. He’s got the speed to stretch the field and has been both a deep-threat and red-zone target for Hurts, so if you’re looking at the Eagles passing game and need to save some alary, Watkins makes sense.
Skyy Moore, WR Kansas City Chiefs
He doesn’t see much in the way of targets, but he does return punts and kicks, so if you’re thinking maybe he runs one back, you can take a look. It gives him a slight edge over just a random dart-throw. Moore will also be on the field when the Chiefs spread the defense with four and five receivers, so since we really never know which way Mahomes is going to go, why not? Again, not someone to lock onto if only setting one lineup, but worth a shot.
*Both kickers are intriguing choices as salary savers so keep them in mind. A good strategy is to match up the kicker with the quarterback of the team you think will win, so if you’re thinking Eagles, use Hurts and Jake Elliott together. The same if you favor the Chiefs. Mahomes and Harrison Butker will certainly work.
**A game with such a high over/under and with two such powerful offenses, it’s tough to play a defense. If you need to use one, then the Eagles are probably the way to go as they led the league in sacks and were way ahead of the pack in the turnover game as well.
Dart-Throw DFS Bargains
Boston Scott, RB Philadelphia Eagles
Everyone and their grandma are all over his over-8.5 rushing yards prop and if you believe the Eagles not only win but hold a lead throughout the game, you can throw a dart here. After all, he does have a rushing touchdown in each of his last three games.
Justin Watson, WR Kansas City Chiefs
Another Chiefs wide receiver to get some exposure to if you are a max-lineup player. He doesn’t see consistent targets but he usually sees a pretty decent snap-share. He didn’t against the Bengals, but perhaps with Mecole Hardman out, he returns to his usual share.
Noah Gray, TE Kansas City Chiefs
If you are fading Kelce because you fear the double-team, then you can definitely save some salary and throw a dart at Gray. We’ve seen him come up with a few catches here and there, so there is some chance, but he should only be used if you are a multi-lineup player.
For more Super Bowl 57 Insights, check out the latest episode of Cash It with Howard Bender & Adam Ronis:
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- DFS Position Top Plays: QB I RB I WR I TE I D/ST
- FAmily Times Podcast