We close out Week 5 with a matchup that could possibly be a Super Bowl preview featuring the Buffalo Bills heading to Southern California for a primetime matchup with the Los Angeles Rams. And it’s not just that these two teams that are contenders to win their respective conferences. SoFi Stadium will host the Super Bowl next February so it’s entirely possible these two teams meet in the same location just four months from now for the biggest game of the year.

This game is projecting for a lot of offense. There are playmakers on both sides and the last two NFL MVP’s are represented in this matchup as well. The sportsbooks are anticipating plenty of scoring in this game so there’s an opportunity to get a nice return with our NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook to help you finalize your lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. And maybe this article helps you find conviction in some player props as well!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Bills vs. Rams Game Preview

As much as this game is a potential Super Bowl preview, it’s also a rematch of a high-scoring matchup from the 2024 NFL season. These two organizations met in the same barn and delivered a 44-42 showcase with the Rams getting the win at home, despite being outscored 21-6 in the fourth quarter. Both Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford threw for over 300 yards. Josh Allen scored SIX total touchdowns (three passing, and three on the ground) and Puka Nacua popped for a dozen catches for 162 yards and a score. If these two teams can repeat anything close to that kind of magic, then we’re in for a treat this evening.

As things currently stand, the Buffalo Bills have the lead on the AFC East. However, they are coming off a loss at home to the New England Patriots who moved to 3-2 on Sunday. The Patriots offense has looked more functional over the last two weeks and a loss Monday night would drop the Bills into a tie with their division rivals. The Bills are averaging 31.8 points per game so they’re certainly able to put points on the board. Unfortunately, they’re also allowing 26.8 points per game to opposing offenses.

The Los Angeles Rams currently sit at 2-2 in the always-competitive NFC West division. A win seems almost necessary for L.A. after the San Francisco 49ers beat the Seattle Seahawks on the road on Sunday to move to 5-0. And even with the loss, the Seahawks are still 3-2 so at best, the Rams would keep pace with Seattle while staying two games behind the 49ers. Injuries have taken a toll on the Rams defense with Myles Garrett landing on IR. Even Aaron Donald has dealt with some back issues after retiring for a couple years. However, he is slated to suit up and he should be fine for this matchup.

The sportsbooks are very optimistic about this game being an offensive barn burner. As of Monday morning, the Rams are favored by 3.5 points but the over/under is sitting at 54.5 points which tied for the highest total among all the Week 5 matchups. Offensive output is the name of the game for this matchup. It’s a fun matchup to dissect and get some betting action on because it’ll be incredibly entertaining if these teams perform like they did two years ago.

 

 

 

Bills vs. Rams Notable Injuries & Inactives

The visiting Buffalo Bills have already ruled out Ed Oliver and Joshua Palmer. Oliver’s absence on the defensive side will surely be missed. Defensive back Dee Alford is listed as questionable after not practicing late last week due to an ankle injury. In addition to Palmer, fellow wideout DJ Moore is also listed as questionable. He didn’t practice Thursday or Friday, but he was a limited participant in Saturday’s session.

The Los Angeles Rams are once again skirting the injury report as best as they can. As of Monday morning safety Quentin Lake is questionable after not practicing late in the week. We’ll also be monitoring any news regarding Grant Stuard and Josaiah Stewart. The noteworthy injury news is relegated to the Rams defense so we’ll keep an ear to the ground.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 10/12

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $13,200

Allen is off to an incredible start to the 2026 NFL season even if he’s still prone to committing some untimely turnovers. But in two games already this season he’s flexed to the tune of 35+ fantasy points due to his rushing upside and touchdown equity.

Allen has already thrown for six touchdowns and rushed for seven(!) more through four weeks. According to Sam Hoppen, entering Week 5, Allen ranks top five among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play (0.31), completion percentage over expected (6.0%), and average depth of target (9.8 yards). With the total for this game sitting at 54.5 points, Allen is going to be a very popular option at MVP/Captain for our MNF DFS picks. He’s also -130 to score a rushing touchdown for tonight’s matchup as he continues building up his MVP resume.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $12,400

We have plenty of players capable of breaking the slate with huge scores for the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook. We already started with Allen, who can throw for 300+ yards and score a rushing touchdown or two. Nacua is a star receiver with a huge ceiling for this matchup. After missing Weeks 2 and 3, Nacua returned in Week 4 to catch 9-of-12 targets for 125 yards and he scored a touchdown on the ground.

The Rams have an implied team total just under 29 points so Vegas is expecting them to score touchdowns. Nacua touts a 26.6% target share and the Bills are allowing opposing offenses to get into the red zone about four times each game. When these two teams met in 2024, Puka caught 12-of-14 targets for 162 yards and he scored a pair of touchdowns. So he’s in an up-tempo matchup that likely turns into a shootout and if that’s the case, then Nacua is likely doing a lot of damage.

Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $9,800

I’m hoping this is an opportunity to possibly get a little leverage on Adams at MVP/Captain for our MNF DFS picks. The outlook for Adams so far this year has been simple. When Puka Nacua has played, Adams’ production has been sub-par. But when Nacua’s missed time, Adams has popped off. In Week 1 and 4, when Nacua was available, Adams posted seven receptions on 16 total targets and 12.8 total fantasy points in those two games. In Weeks 2 and 3, when Nacua was absent, Adams went for 130+ receiving yards in both games and scored a pair of touchdowns. In each game he provided 20+ fantasy points.

Now for this matchup, Nacua will be on the field. And Adams is coming off a game where he only had four catches for 32 yards. However, he still registered a 95% snap share, nine targets, and 133 air yards according to LaQuan Jones. Buffalo tends to bleed production to opposing wide receivers and the Rams do run a consolidated offensive scheme. So I do still believe in his ceiling even if Nacua is on the field, and in terms of Captain ownership, Adams could be a leverage pick.

Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $5,600

Let’s go a little off the wall with this Captain recommendation, shall we? It may shock some people to see Coleman, who is arguably a value play, in this section. But Coleman has a few things working in his favor for this matchup. For the most part, the Buffalo Bills don’t consolidate their targets like the Rams do. But Joshua Palmer has already been ruled out. And DJ Moore is questionable after only registering a limited practice session on Saturday heading into Week 5. If Moore is ultimately ruled out, it’s wheels up for Coleman because he may rarely come off the field.

Coleman had a rough couple of seasons getting his footing in the NFL. But his third year is currently off to a better start. He’s caught six passes in two-of-four games this year, and last week he went for over 100 yards for the bonus on DraftKings while finding the end zone. And even if Moore is active for this matchup, I’m still willing to play Coleman at Captain in some lineups so the downgrade would be minor. He is still a deep target for Josh Allen and he carries more big play upside than Khalil Shakir.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $11,200

Cook is going to see plenty of volume. He also has touchdown equity to his name as well. He’s scored in three straight games and he recorded the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings in Weeks 2 and 3. This matchup for Cook basically boils down to the Bills O-line against the Rams run defense and if they can open up the gaps for Cook.

The Rams have allowed just 78 rushing yards per game over their last three outings after getting torched by the San Francisco 49ers on the ground to the tune of 174 yards during their Week 1 tilt in Australia. But the Buffalo offensive line ranks first in yards before contact per carry (2.61) and stuffed run rate (9.5%).

Cook sees good volume on the ground and occasionally has goal line touchdowns taken from him by Josh Allen. But there is a narrative where he sees 20+ carries and this might just be the time of game flow where he’s utilized in the passing game more. He is viable as a Captain/MVP candidate, but I do prefer the players above just a little bit more.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $10,400

There are so many players who I had to leave out of the Captain/MVP section simply because I try to limit just four players for that portion of the article. Both Cook and Williams have upside and are worthy of playing as the Captain or MVP in your own NFL DFS Showdown lineups.

But Kyren hasn’t popped for a 100-yards bonus yet. But in fairness to him, he’s been close with 80+ rushing yards in three straight games. Additionally, his usage in the passing game lately has been outstanding. He’s caught 16-of-20 targets just in the last two weeks for 137 total yards. Entering Week 5, the Bills have allowed 7.8 targets per game to opposing running backs so if you think Kyren can maintain the passing game usage, then I recommend loading up on some shares. It also doesn’t hurt his case that he’s scored four times in as many games already this season.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

It’s crazy that it’s taken this long into the article to get to Stafford. But the price on DraftKings is outstanding when you consider he’s the reigning NFL MVP who has recorded the 300-yard passing bonus in three straight games entering Week 5. Moreover, he’s attempted 50+ pass attempts in back-to-back games leading into this matchup. When these teams met back in 2024, Stafford threw for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Again, the price tag is so easy to fit in as a Flex option at just $9,000 on DraftKings because starting quarterbacks should probably be priced higher. The Bills are allowing 274 passing yards per game. If there’s a weakness to this Bills team, it’s that the defense bleeds production, especially to good offenses. Buffalo has surrendered 29+ points to three-of-four opponents this season and they’ve given up 340+ yards of offense in each game so far. Stafford is very capable of facilitating offensive drives that can march down the field against this defense and put points on the board.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

As we alluded to in Keon Coleman’s section, it’s possible we finally see the Bills’ offense operate in a more consolidated nature if DJ Moore is ruled out. But if Moore is active, he will be in play as well and I’ll include him in the player pool below but I’m not going to dedicate too much time to a player who may not play.

But Shakir is a player who can see a healthy amount of targets. He’s a PPR cheat code without a significantly high ceiling if he isn’t scoring. He’s seen at least six targets in three-of-four games this season and last week he caught seven receptions on eight targets for 82 yards and a lot of that damage came once Moore left.

He doesn’t quite get the deep targets that Coleman is likely to see, and Shakir is used on plays that take less time to develop so any big plays have to be made by him after the catch. He provides a good floor given the potential targets that could be funneled to him, but I’m not entirely convinced he has a high ceiling for this NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $4,600

With so many expensive options worth spending up for, we do need to find some salary-saving NFL DFS picks that can round out our lineups. With Terrance Ferguson getting hurt in Week 3, Higbee has stepped up for Los Angeles in their last two games. In that span, Higbee has caught 13 passes on 17 targets for 129 yards and a score.

And let’s not forget that Sean McVay experimented with a lot of 13 personnel packages last year when Puka Nacua was hurt. They won’t run many packages like that for this game because Nacua and Adams are both available. However, McVay likes getting his tight ends involved. We’ve seen it with Higbee and I don’t think we should be sleeping on Colby Parkinson for this matchup either. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see McVay swerve us and get Parkinson some high value targets with Higbee emerging as the trendy option on paper.

Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $7,200

The pricing on FanDuel is a bit egregious. I’d rather target Coleman or Shakir on the Buffalo side than pay $7,200 for Corum who has seen his touches drop off the last two weeks. And the fact is that he’s simply been outplayed by Kyren Williams. Corum’s averaging less than three yards per carry across his last two games after averaging over six yards per carry in Weeks 1 and 2.

But if this turns out to be a game script where Corum can get back to 10-to-12 touches then this is a great opportunity for him to find the end zone. But he’s not trending in the right direction so by playing Corum it’s largely on blind faith. Kyren outsnapped him just a week ago 70-to-13. Sean McVay will ride the hot hand in this matchup and Corum doesn’t quite have momentum at the moment.

Konata Mumpfield, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $2,200 | FanDuel: $4,000

The one downside to this NFL DFS Showdown slate is the lack of confidence in any punt plays. And sure, that should be the case with most Showdown slates. The players priced in this range are here for a reason. So we are throwing darts on value options. Perhaps a value option like Greg Dortch or Skyler Bell take on a larger role for Buffalo. The possibilities really open up if DJ Moore can’t play.

But on the L.A. side we have Konata Mumpfield. In Week 3, without Puka Nacua, Mumpfield caught four-of-eight targets for 93 yards and a touchdown. In Week 4, with Nacua back on the field, Mumpfield saw his role diminish which was to be expected. But he still saw three targets before injuring his rotator cuff. But the Rams aren’t concerned about the injury heading into this matchup so he should be good to go.

So if Moore plays, then I may chase value with some pass catchers on the Los Angeles side of the board. But if Moore is ruled out, we can make some adjustments to our NFL DFS lineups and try to find value/punts with the Buffalo Bills.

 

 

 

Bills vs. Rams DFS Player Pool, 10/12

Player Pool

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