We wrap up and put a bow on Week 11 with an inter-conference matchup as the Dallas Cowboys head to Sin City to take on the Las Vegas Raiders. These two teams have a combined five wins on the year. This is arguably a must-win for the Cowboys as they sit at 3-5-1 after dropping back-to-back games heading into their Bye week.

The Raiders are the basement dwellers of the AFC West at 2-7 with arguably no shot at the playoffs unless they win every remaining game on their schedule. The NFC playoff picture is very tight as the conference is absolutely loaded with good teams. It feels as if one or two NFC teams could win 10 games and still miss out on a Wild Card spot. That’s just how good that conference is this season. So Dallas can’t afford to lose this game. Let’s dive into the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook to close out Week 11!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Cowboys vs. Raiders Game Preview

Las Vegas plays host for our MNF DFS picks with the Cowboys and Raiders going at it for 60 minutes in primetime. This matchup isn’t too exciting for the landscape of the NFL. However, for season-long fantasy football and NFL DFS Showdown contests, it could provide for some entertainment.

For starters, the Raiders allow 24.4 points per game while Dallas allow 30.8 which is second most in the NFL. As far as yardage goes, Vegas surrenders 320.8 yards per game while Dallas gives up closer to 400. Moreover, the Dallas offense averages the fourth-most points per game (29.2) and the fourth-most yards per game (378.4). So even if Vegas has a middling defense, the Cowboys offense can put up points in this matchup.

The sportsbooks are projecting a competitive, high scoring game. The over/under is set at 49.5 points and the Cowboys (-3.5) are road favorites so if your fantasy football matchup is coming down to Monday Night Football, then you either still have a fighting chance or you’re not quite in the clear yet.

The nice part about this game is that we have two organizations with rather consolidated offenses, which is great when building our lineups because it may just take one cheap or contrarian option to really set our lineups apart for single-and-three-entry max contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Pricing isn’t overly aggressive either for a game that could see some star players put up big numbers. Here are the top plays for the Week 11 NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Raiders Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Dallas Cowboys have only ruled out defensive tackle Solomon Thomas for this Week 11 matchup. But they’re also listing Alijah Clark as questionable and Ajani Cornelius as questionable. I would expect a few more healthy scratches ahead of this week’s Monday Night Football matchup.

The Las Vegas Raiders have only ruled out backup quarterback Aidan O’Connell for this matchup and no other player is even listed as questionable. Similar to Dallas, there will likely be some healthy scratches for the Raiders, so we need to monitor inactives 90 minutes before kickoff.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 11/17

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,200

Lamb is the most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. In three games since returning from injury he’s averaging 10 targets per game with 259 receiving yards in that span. In those three games he’s seen target shares of 26.7%, 28.6%, and 33.3% while also receiving three of the team’s six targets in the end zone according to Warren Sharp. In three-of-six games that he’s appeared in so far this year, he’s hit the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings.

The Raiders don’t particularly defend any position incredibly well. Maxx Crosby is certainly their best player on defense and his name appears in trade rumors on an annual basis and yet he seems happy to stay in Vegas on a bad team. To each their own. But Lamb, whether he lines up in the slot (33%) or out wide, will likely see plenty of targets and be a big reason why Dallas puts points on the board. This is just a classic recommendation for a player likely to see plenty of volume in a relatively soft matchup.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $11,400

It wasn’t a pretty start to Ashton Jeanty’s NFL career as the first three games were rather forgettable. But over his last six games he has six touchdowns. Efficiency hasn’t been a high mark for him as he’s averaging under 4.0 yards per carry on the ground and just over 60 rushing yards per game. However, he still has involvement in the passing game with 10 targets in two games since the team’s Bye week.

The matchup doesn’t get much better this week for Jeanty than against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game (143.0) and the great thing with Jeanty is that he makes plays happen on his own. He’s forcing about five missed tackles every game and he’s a YAC machine. The Vegas O-line ranks dead last in stuffed run rate (27.6%) and they’re second-to-last in yards before contact per carry (0.71) so maybe it’s actually very impressive Jeanty’s averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Either way, the matchup and volume are in his favor in this matchup so feel free to load up on Captain shares!

Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $12,200

Williams is no stranger to the Las Vegas Raiders as he faced them seven times during his time with the Denver Broncos. He never had a memorable game against them but in two of his last three performances against Vegas, he did record at least five receptions for 40+ yards.

Williams is having the best season of his career with Dallas. He has nine touchdowns in as many games while averaging just under 80 rushing yards per game. The Raiders are actually only allowing about 106.6 rushing yards per game but over their last three contests that number inflates to 129. The Dallas offensive line ranks 10th in stuffed run rate (14.9%) and they’re 12th in run block win rate (72%).

I am moderately concerned about the lack of involvement in the three games leading up to the Cowboys Bye week, but I’m optimistic that they can once again get him going with some cheap passes where he can provide some yardage. At the end of the day, it feels like a good opportunity for him to get 15+ touches in this matchup for our Cowboys vs. Raiders DFS picks.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $9,600

I was a bit surprised with the pricing on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Brock Bowers. He’s priced perfectly in the mid-range which feels a bit reactionary following the dud performance he had in Week 10 against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are a nightmare matchup for all tight ends in fantasy football. In Week 11, Bowers draws the Cowboys and the interesting part of this matchup is he may draw coverage over the middle from Logan Wilson, who the Cowboys acquired from the Cincinnati Bengals. So far this year, Wilson has just a 48.8 coverage grade per Pro Football Focus and Bowers is the kind of elite player who can dominate this matchup.

The pricing still boggles my mind as Bowers, despite missing significant time this season, still has three games this year with at least eight targets and he had a monstrous spike week in his return from injury two weeks ago. That’s the ceiling we can chase in this matchup where Vegas may actually be able to generate production through the air even if Geno Smith isn’t very good.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $12,800

So Dak actually cooled off a little bit in the two games leading into the Dallas Cowboys’ Bye week. He averaged 35 pass attempts in those two games, which is fine, but he totaled just 438 passing yards and one lone touchdown pass. But one of those matchups came against the Denver Broncos.

As Dallas emerges from its week off, they get a safe matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. I do like the “ceiling” more for the skill position players on both sides in this game. Previous quarterbacks that have faced the Raiders have had more “floor” games than the type that break the slate. Per Warren Sharp, Drake Maye, Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix all scored outside the top 15 at the quarterback position when they faced the Raiders.

But Dallas is at least rested and the Raiders don’t have a great pass rush aside from Maxx Crosby. Among qualified quarterbacks, Prescott ranks 10th in EPA/Play (0.17), 12th in completion percentage over expected (3.6%), and he’s 5th in turnover-worthy play rate (1.8%). He could certainly have a stat line where he throws for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns but that won’t be enough to be optimal at Captain. However, that can still work for us as a flex play.

George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $8,800

In the three games since CeeDee Lamb has returned from injury, Pickens hasn’t really seen his production drop off. Now he hasn’t scored since Lamb returned, but he still saw volume heading into the team’s Bye week. He just saw back-to-back games with nine targets and the Raiders represent a top six matchup for opposing wide receivers.

Pickens is second among all receivers in end zone targets (14) behind only Davante Adams entering Week 11. Despite the lack of touchdowns from Weeks 7-9, he’s still getting targeted deep. Both defenses in this game play heavy doses of zone coverage and Pickens has been better this season against zone concepts so he’s certainly in play if he continues to average roughly 80 receiving yards per game. If he finds the end zone, then we’re cooking with gas.

Geno Smith, QB, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $10,200

Overall, Geno Smith is terrible and is clearly not the long-term solution for the Las Vegas Raiders at quarterback. He ranks 28th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (-0.10), 22nd in success rate (44%), 20th in completion percentage over expected (-1.0%), and he’s 26th in turnover-worthy play rate (3.7%). To top it all off, he’s 30th in average depth of target (6.1) so he’s not exactly producing deep down the field.

But as always, we are more than comfortable playing quarterbacks against the Dallas Cowboys defense. My lone reservation is that Dallas is coming off the Bye week with fresh legs and they also acquired Quinnen Williams at the NFL Trade Deadline. Williams can certainly help this defensive line that has ranked poorly across plenty of run/pass defensive metrics.

As far as Smith is concerned, if there’s a trailing game script against Dallas, the secondary is still weak enough that Smith can rack up production. Smith does have more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (11) this season, so we just need him to be great for one game and hopefully we get a spike performance similar to what he did against the Jacksonville Jaguars two weeks ago.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $8,200

Ferguson has been the one player that has taken the production hit with CeeDee Lamb returning in Week 7. Ferguson didn’t catch his lone target in Week 8, but he did catch five passes on seven targets in Week 9 for 50 yards. But he didn’t find the end zone and he lost a fumble. 

Over the last four games for the Raiders, they’ve had to defend the likes of Cade Otton, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, and Hunter Long. Those four tight ends collected a total of 140 receiving yards (Otton had half of that total), and none of them found the end zone. You can beat the Raiders on the ground and on the perimeter. Tight ends haven’t had much success against Vegas across the middle of the field, so I am a bit nervous about this recommendation. But for a $7,400 play I like the potential for a pass catcher that can possibly get seven targets.

Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $7,400

It hasn’t been pretty for Tucker since his monstrous game back in Week 3 when he scored three times. In fact, he hasn’t scored since then. He did lead all Raiders receivers in routes run last week in the team’s first game without Jakobi Meyers. That only resulted in three targets, but he also has a soft matchup in Week 11 for our Cowboys vs. Raiders DFS picks.

The Dallas defense is healthier since coming off their Bye week, but they’ve still surrendered 16 touchdowns to opposing receivers on the year. Tucker has the ability to pop for 60+ yards on maybe four or five catches. If he can find the end zone, then a similar stat line is all we need for him to be optimal as a flex option for our NFL DFS Showdown lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $4,200

Mayer actually outproduced Brock Bowers in Week 10 but I won’t dwell on that too much because we know most weeks that won’t be the case. What is significant is that Mayer played 62% of the team’s offensive snaps. In the two games since the Raiders traded Jakobi Meyers, the team has leaned more on 12 personnel (two-tight end sets) and Mayer has seen 11 targets in that span.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $5,200

It’s not pretty and it does feel like we’re chasing last week’s production. But in his second game with the Raiders, he only played 57% of the snaps and he surprisingly led the team in targets with six. He likely doesn’t need much time to get acclimated to the offense since he obviously is familiar with Pete Carroll and has a rapport with Geno Smith from their time in Seattle.

With the Raiders recently trading Jakobi Meyers to the Jacksonville Jaguars, there’s certainly an opportunity here for snaps and targets. And of course, in his third game with the Raiders, he’ll get a tasty matchup against the Dallas Cowboys who allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers according to Mike Clay.

Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $2,000

There aren’t many plays that I feel great about in the value/punt range. On the Dallas side, I will include the likes of Ryan Flournoy, Jalen Tolbert, and KaVontae Turpin in the player pool below. And for the Raiders, you can certainly make an argument for some of their younger pass catchers including Dont’e Thornton Jr.

I’m mostly going with Schoonmaker because, while he also carries uncertainty and isn’t going to see much volume, he’s incredibly cheap and gives us plenty of budget/roster flexibility. In six-of-nine games this year he’s seen at least two targets. And even if he can only get us maybe two receptions for 20-30 yards, we can leave with that because it’s something we can work with at such a cheap tag and he allows us to spend money elsewhere.

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Raiders DFS Player Pool, 11/17

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-