The NFL Sunday Week 7 slate wraps up with a matchup out of the NFC featuring the Atlanta Falcons heading West to take on the San Francisco 49ers. The Falcons are coming off a huge win last Monday night with an upset victory over the Buffalo Bills. But the Falcons have been a team so far that’s played much better at home than on the road. Can they buck that trend on a short week?

The San Francisco 49ers have been battling injuries for a large majority of the season. They currently sit at 4-2 on the season and it’s amazing that we sit here in Week 7 and the healthiest player for the 49ers has been Christian McCaffrey. These two teams look to jockey for position in the NFC standings Sunday night so let’s check out the latest Falcons vs. 49ers DFS picks for Sunday Night Football.

 

 

 

Falcons vs. 49ers DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 10/19

The latest Sunday Night Football Playbook highlights the top Falcons vs. 49ers DFS picks and lineup building strategies. The hometown San Francisco 49ers have been decimated by injuries. Defensively they lost Nick Bosa to a torn ACL and as of last week, they lost Fred Warner to a season-ending ankle injury. Things haven’t gone much better on offense. Brock Purdy has only been able to make two starts this year. George Kittle has been on IR since Week 1 after he sustained a hamstring injury. And the combination of Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings have missed significant time as well. And on top of all this, we still have no idea when Brandon Aiyuk will return. Through sheer will and good coaching, the 49ers have managed to get to 4-2 and share the lead for the NFC West with the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams.

The Atlanta Falcons come in with significant momentum. The beat the Washington Commanders in Week 4. The following week they got some rest with the Bye week. And last Monday, with fresh legs, they stunned everyone and beat the Buffalo Bills at home. Both Bjian Robinson and Drake London had massive games. Bijan Robinson specifically has really backed up the ADP this year with his heavy involvement and overall production.

But it remains to be seen if this team can be as dominant/consistent on the road. The Falcons are 3-2 but they also took a 30-0 beating on the road against the Carolina Panthers. On a short week, they have to travel across the country to take on the 49ers. And while Atlanta’s great defensive efforts stand out, they’ll have their hands full containing Christian McCaffrey in the passing game. Let’s dive into the matchups and top players for our Falcons vs. 49ers DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Falcons vs. 49ers SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Falcons +1.5 (-105)
    • 49ers -1.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Falcons (+105)
    • 49ers (-125)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 47.5 (+100)
    • Under 47.5 (-120)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Falcons +1.5 (-105)
    • 49ers -1.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Falcons (+108)
    • 49ers (-126)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 46.5 (-118)
    • Under 46.5 (-104)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Falcons vs. 49ers SNF, October 19th

Conditions are looking perfect for our Falcons vs. 49ers DFS picks on Sunday Night Football. With this being a West coast game, the sun will still be out around kickoff with temperatures at 74 degrees with clear skies. As the sun sets the temps will cool into the high 60’s. There’s no rain in the forecast and winds should not exceed 10 miles per hour.

 

Falcons vs. 49ers Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 7

The visiting Atlanta Falcons have ruled out a few players on defense ahead of this matchup. Jordan Fuller, Jalon Walker, Clark Phillips III, and Billy Bowman Jr. have all been ruled out for Week 7. The absence of rookies Walker and Bowman are certainly impactful, but this defense has been playing at a pretty high level so far. On the offensive side, Ray-Ray McCloud has been ruled out due to personal reasons while Darnell Mooney is questionable to play but it does sound as if there’s a very good chance he’s active.

We received clarity on the 49ers’ situation on Friday. Mac Jones will get the start once again for San Francisco as Brock Purdy has been ruled out. Ricky Pearsall has also been ruled out and Marquez Valdes-Scantling was placed on IR so that opens up opportunities among the value pass catchers but even Skyy Moore has been battling an ankle injury.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $12,200 | FanDuel: $13,400

There really isn’t much that needs to be said with regard to Bijan Robinson. He’s found the end zone in back-to-back games and is fresh off a monstrous performance against the Bills where he popped for 238 total yards on 25 touches.

This is a volume play. He has touchdown equity, he’s collected a 100-yard bonus on DraftKings in four-of-five games this year, and on top of it all he has at least five targets in every game this year. The Falcons are beating good teams with back-to-back wins over the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills. Bijan is a big reason why.

The 49ers aren’t a bad matchup for running backs. They’re somewhat middle of the road. But they gave up rushing touchdowns to both Rachaad White and Sean Tucker last week. Even the week prior Kyren Williams caught a pair of receiving touchdowns. He’s definitely reached the level of being matchup proof and the ceiling is once again high for Bijan as we dig into our SNF DFS picks.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $13,200

The crazy thing about McCaffrey’s season so far, especially for DraftKings, is that he hasn’t registered a single 100-yard bonus yet. The good news is the heavy involvement in the passing game. He’s a running back and he’s averaging 10 targets per game. So far he has 46 receptions for 444 yards and a receiving touchdown. The rushing totals aren’t great. He’s totaled 336 rushing yards but he’s averaging 3.1 yards per carry. But he’s scored three rushing touchdowns as well.

The volume and receiving upside keep him in play. That combination is raising both his floor and his ceiling. But the Falcons are proving to have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Just last Monday they limited the Buffalo Bills to just 14 total points to hand Buffalo their second straight loss. James Cook was limited to just 87 rushing yards and didn’t record a catch. Ray Davis did find the end zone on a 16-yard touchdown catch.

Atlanta’s defense has been legitimate against good competition. But CMC has proven to be a bit matchup proof because of his involvement in the passing game. Atlanta has to travel on a short week and may have a bit of a Monday night hangover after last week’s win. So I’m in no position to recommend fading CMC for our SNF DFS picks. 

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

In last week’s NFL DFS Showdown Playbook for Monday Night Football, we highlighted London in the Captain section but made note of his performances with Darnell Mooney off the field. With Mooney inactive Monday night, London popped for 10 receptions on 16 targets for 158 yards and a score, and he came very close to an additional touchdown, but he stepped out of bounds just before the goal line as time expired in the first half.

Darnell Mooney has been practicing in a limited capacity ahead of this matchup so we still have some appeal with London. The most common type of zone coverage schemes are Cover 3 and Cover 4. The San Francisco 49ers deploy those shells at a fairly high rate (56%). According to Kyle Borgognoni of the Fantasy Footballers, London accounts for 40% of Atlanta’s receiving yards against this coverage.

London also joins Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua as the only receivers with at least a 30% target share and 3.00 YPRR so he’s in elite company. But I do think we tread carefully with London at Captain. There are two factors in play that could impact his ceiling. If Darnell Mooney plays, then London’s volume and production might take a small hit. Additionally, Michael Penix hasn’t quite been as good on the road as he has been at home.

Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $8,800

Kendrick Bourne has been stepping up in big ways amidst all the injuries to the San Francisco 49ers wide receivers. Ricky Pearsall has been ruled out and Marquez Valdes-Scantling was placed on IR on Friday. So there will be plenty of opportunities for Bourne, but this is a tough matchup.

Bourne has posted 142 receiving yards in back-to-back games with 15 receptions on 20 targets. He’s averaging 18.9 yards per catch in that sample size. So with the volume and receiving bonus on DraftKings, he’s been a worthwhile piece to the player pool. The matchup is difficult this week, however. The Falcons are allowing the fewest passing yards per game (139.4), the third fewest yards per pass attempt (5.4), and the second lowest opponent completion percentage per game (57.69%).

It’s a touch matchup across the board for a lot of the skill position players for the 49ers. But I do want to see if the Falcons are a bit hungover from last Monday’s big win because the 49ers should be capable of putting up a fight at home and Bourne should once again be heavily involved.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

 

Mac Jones, QB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,000

 

As of Friday, the 49ers officially ruled out Brock Purdy so we at least know who the starting quarterback will be early on for our Falcons vs. 49ers DFS picks. Mac Jones has been more than serviceable for the 49ers as their starting quarterback. He’s not doing anything special, but Shanahan caters the offense to his strengths.

 

Among qualified quarterbacks, Jones is top 10 in success rate (53.3%) and he’s 13th in turnover worthy play rate (2.6%). He didn’t have a great performance last week against Tampa Bay. He threw a pair of interceptions and didn’t record a touchdown. And yet, he still returned 16.2 fantasy points because he was able to register the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings. In fact, he’s now done that in back-to-back games.

 

There isn’t much rushing upside but there is volume. And with Ricky Pearsall ruled out once again, we know he’s going to feed Kendrick Bourne in addition to Christian McCaffrey. For our SNF DFS picks, it’s nice knowing this offense is a bit consolidated even in a bad matchup.

Michael Penix, QB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $10,600

Penix is coming off the biggest win of his career over the Buffalo Bills last Monday. But let’s not act like he had a monstrous fantasy performance.  He threw for 250 yards and a touchdown while adding six rushing yards on the ground. It was far from dominance. Bjian Robinson and Drake London were easily the more optimal plays.

Penix enters Week 7 ranking 31st among 35 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected (-4.8%) and he’s 17th in EPA/Play (0.10). There’s obviously room for improvement and the Falcons offensive line is giving him clean pockets as they rank 9th in pressure rate allowed (29.1%) and 6th in pass block win rate (65%).

Fortunately, the 49ers pass rush isn’t exactly in an elite tier without Nick Bosa. Entering this week they’re 22nd in pressure rate (28.4%), 29th in sack rate (3.4%), and 25th in blitz rate (20.7%). Penix will likely see plenty of opportunities and in a competitive matchup he may have a healthy amount of pass attempts, but the performances in his previous two road games this year are giving me some pause, but at the end of the day, he still correlates well in 4:2 or 5:1 Atlanta stacks.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $7,800

Per his own words, Kittle is at 100% and fully intends on playing Sunday night so he’s a nice addition to the SNF DFS picks. At full strength, Kittle is one of the best in the game at his position. And let’s not forget, back in Week 1 he was seeing heavy involvement early on. He caught all three of his targets (including a touchdown) in the first quarter against the Seahawks that week and he had an additional reception early in the second quarter before leaving with injury. If he really is back at 100% like he says he is, then the 49ers should get him involved.

We should at least acknowledge that hamstring injuries are no joke. Hamstring and groin injuries are easy to re-aggravate so I can’t quite list him as a core play. And he also has to go against Atlanta’s defense and they’ve been brutal in terms of production they give up to tight ends. Dawson Knox found the end zone last week but that was his only catch on two targets. In Week 4, the Falcons gave up 27 points to the Washington Commanders, but Zach Ertz was held to just two receptions on four targets. It’s great to see Kittle back and I’ll be monitoring his player prop lines but I’m keeping expectations in check for this matchup.

I won’t be highlighting Jake Tonges as a value play below, but he’ll make the player pool. With Kittle returning, Tonges may take a backseat to the veteran. And similar to Kittle, it’s a tough matchup for Tonges. But he’s still affordable and has probably done enough to warrant staying involved in the offense.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $6,000

FanDuel’s offering Jennings at a very nice price tag. Even the cost on DraftKings isn’t terrible considering what we know about Jennings’ upside. And there’ no Ricky Pearsall, and there are value receivers who may miss this game as well.

Jennings doesn’t carry an injury designation into this matchup. For season-long fantasy football leagues he’s very difficult to trust. However, for our Falcons vs. 49ers DFS picks, we lean into that kind of variance. Sure, we assume some risk. He played through injury last week and only caught one pass on three targets. Even on this week’s injury report he popped up with ankle, rib, and shoulder issues. That’s far from ideal.

But if he’s active, casual players won’t want to go here. Jennings played over 75% of the snaps on offense last week. In this game with no Pearsall or MVS, he should be on the field plenty and he’s priced perfectly to make our NFL DFS Showdown lineups as a flex play, with some consideration for Captain as well.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $5,800

It’s not a great matchup on paper but I’m content playing Pitts assuming considering he’s capable of putting up a stat line in this game of maybe four or five catches for 40-50 yards and perhaps he finds the end zone. If that’s the case, then at $5,800 on both sites he’s likely optimal as a flex play.

Now Pitts is dependent on touchdowns, as has been the case with several tight ends. He’s only found the end zone once this year but the 49ers will be without Fred Warner so I’m inclined to upgrade Pitts a little bit in this matchup. Last week Cade Otton caught five passes for 51 yards against San Francisco. In Week 4, Brenton Strange caught six passes for 45 yards. Trey McBride had five receptions for 43 yards and a score and Juwan Johnson similarly had five receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown as well against this defense. If Pitts can do something similar in terms of the catches and yards, he can likely make the optimal lineup, but we definitely want him to find the end zone.

Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $5,200 | FanDuel: $5,000

We recommended Allgeier as a value play last week in the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Showdown Playbook and it paid off. The analysis last week was that we were getting exposure to an affordable running back that was still seeing 10-to-12 touches per game. And that’s once again the case this week.

Allgeier has found the end zone in three of his last four games. And it’s not like this is solely a running back getting garbage time production. His touchdown last week was in the first quarter, so kudos to anytime who bet Allgeier to score the first touchdown of the game. Alas, the Falcons do give Bijan Robinson plenty of relief throughout the game and Allgeier still has a nice role as the 1B to Bijan’s 1A.

Demarcus Robinson, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $4,400

It’s not pretty but just by default we have to mention Demarcus Robinson. We know that San Francisco’s noteworthy pass catchers are all severely hurting. That’s no surprise. But even some of D-Rob’s fellow value receivers are battling injuries. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was placed on IR due to a calf injury and Skyy Moore might be limited with an ankle injury.

Robinson does have five receptions on 10 targets over his last two games. And even the likely starters (Pearsall and Jennings) are a bit beat up. So even if one of those two were to miss the game, Robinson is likely slotting in as the team’s WR3 for this tough matchup against Atlanta. At this price tag, a receiver with D-Rob’s big play upside can pay off such a cheap price tag.

Casey Washington, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $3,400

This recommendation requires reading between the lines a little bit. We love this play if Darnell Mooney is unable to suit up. We slightly downgrade it if Mooney is active, but we don’t completely turn away from Washington as a value.

Last week, Washington was second in wide receiver snaps behind Drake London when Mooney was inactive, but he didn’t register a catch. But the more surprising news was that Ray-Ray McCloud was a surprise inactive last week due to a coach’s decision. McCloud also didn’t practice early in the week for personal reasons. If we’re reading into this properly, he may be unhappy with his role and the organization is willing to list him as a healthy scratch. So even if Mooney is active for this game, with McCloud out again in Week 7, I think we can still play Washington. 

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

As of Friday morning, this game is fairly close to a pick ‘em at most sportsbooks. The San Francisco 49ers have an implied team total of 24.5 points while the Atlanta Falcons sit at 23 points. The visiting team draws some appeal because under Jeff Ulbrich, the Falcons have become a formidable defense. Entering Week 7, the Falcons rank 1st in blitz rate (41.8%), 8th in pressure rate (34.8%), and 3rd in sack rate (8.9%). Any defense will have trouble containing Christian McCaffrey but this defense just limited Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to 14 points. But can the defense back that performance up again on a short week?

The 49ers D/ST doesn’t draw a ton of interest entirely. They lost Nick Bosa earlier in the year and they lost Fred Warner last week. This defense is certainly rolling with the punches and trying to tread water. They have just two takeaways and three sacks in their last four games. In their last three games they’re allowing 26 points per game to opposing offenses. Entering Week 7 they’re 22nd in pressure rate (28.4%), 29th in sack rate (3.4%), and 25th in blitz rate (20.7%). Even when at full health, they weren’t bringing in double-digit fantasy points and they’ll have their hands full containing Bijan Robinson and Co.

Eddie Pineiro should draw plenty of attention as players build out their NFL DFS Showdown lineups. With Mac Jones under center the last couple games, he’s moved the offense effectively enough to put Pineiro in position for volume. He’s a perfect 8-for-8 over the last two weeks and five of those field goals have been from 40+ yards out. He’s made at least two field goals in five straight games so there’s a good floor and a great ceiling.

We don’t have as much confidence in Parker Romo, as he hasn’t exhibited as much of a ceiling as Pineiro. I do get the sense that Atlanta doesn’t fully trust him kicking from range. Over his last three games he’s only 3-for-6 on field goal attempts and none of his conversions have been from 40+ yards. Both kickers make for good flex plays in their respective team stacks. In general, Pineiro is the one that should draw more ownership based on his reliability and volume of late.

 

 

 

Falcons vs. 49ers DFS Player Pool: SNF, 10/19

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-