Week 5 of the NFL season is in the books, and I’ll remind you that it’s important to not just look at the box score when evaluating players and stating whether their fantasy football stock is up or down. Many times, the numbers under the hood can paint a more accurate or complete picture of a player’s usage, value, or role. That’s the idea behind our Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers series. Throughout the season, we’ll monitor these underlying metrics and trends to identify fantasy football breakout candidates, waiver wire targets, trade targets, sleepers, and players who have seen their fantasy football stock go up or go down. Also, be sure to check out a few players I identified as possible fantasy football buy-low and sell-high candidates! If you want to stay ahead of your league, these are the fantasy football trends and fantasy football values you need to know as Week 5 is in the rearview mirror, and we head into Week 6 of the NFL season.
Biggest Fantasy Football Risers Before Week 6
Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s Tuten time in Jacksonville. He handled a 91.7% designed carry share in Week 5, easily his highest in a game this season, and his snap continues trending the right way. Check it out below, courtesy of FantasyPoints Data:
- 48.2% -> 49.1% -> 48.3% -> 57.4% -> 66.2%
With a season-high 22 carries in Week 5, he only mustered 72 rushing yards (3.27 YPC), but for the entire season, he boasts a 4.26 YPC mark, 14.3% explosive run rate, and 2.48 yards after contact per attempt (eighth-best amongst RBs with at least 30 carries), per FantasyPoints Data. Furthermore, he has a 42.3% route participation rate over the last two weeks, and his marks in Weeks 4 and 5 were the first two times this season where he’s jumped over 40% in a game, per FantasyPoints Data.
After Houston in Week 6 and then the team’s bye, he has a solid schedule over the next month plus, which should help him cement his role as the clear-cut lead back for Jacksonville.
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts
Two touchdowns in Weeks 1-2 saved Warren’s fantasy days those weeks, but over the last three weeks, he’s averaging seven receptions and 59.7 yards per game! He’s coming off a season-high 83 yards against the Steelers in Week 5, and he now has a touchdown or 40 yards in every game this season. Despite an underwhelming 1.37 yards per route run through five weeks, per FantasyPoints Data, he is one of just five tight ends to have a target share north of 20% on the season.
Another thing to note from Week 5 that could be beneficial going forward: His average depth of target (aDOT). In Week 5, he recorded an aDOT of 9.89, whereas his previous single-game high this season was 4.80 in Week 1, per FantasyPoints Data. His 89 air yards were also his highest in a game, and in fact, it was more than what he posted through the first four weeks (65 air yards), per FantasyPoints Data.
Biggest Fantasy Football Fallers Before Week 6
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts isn’t a QB1 in fantasy right now. Hurts isn’t even a top 15 QB in fantasy points at the moment. By the production, he’s a mid-tier QB2, and his fantasy points have dropped each game, bottoming out at 13 fantasy points in Week 5. Despite handling an above-average designed carry share and rush attempts per game at the QB position, his designed carry share is trending down. This year, it sits at 8.4%, whereas it was 13.2% last season, and at least 18% in each of the four seasons prior, per FantasyPoints Data. The offensive line has been atrocious; his wideouts are banged up, bad separators, or aren’t efficient, and it’s impacted Hurts.
Through five weeks, his turnover-worthy play rate would be his highest since 2021, his yards per attempt sits at just 6.06, and he’s completed less than 60% of his passes thus far. Hurts has been solid in the intermediate passing game, but short passing has been his kryptonite, as seen by his 61.8 passer rating and 0:2 TD/INT ratio on 77 attempts in the 0-9 yard range.
Things aren’t the brightest in Philly at the moment, and if Hurts needs rushing scores to inflate his fantasy production, he’ll need more opportunities, as the Eagles have the 12th-fewest plays in the red zone thus far, per FantasyPoints Data.
Rashid Shaheed, Seattle Seahawks
Despite the hype coming into the year with Shaheed and becoming a more prominent part of the offense, it hasn’t come to fruition through five weeks. Shaheed has topped 30 receiving yards in just one game, and he has three or more receptions in just one game as well. His 61.1% route participation rate is behind both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp, and a 12.2% target share, 0.97 yards per route run, and 5.33 yards per target simply isn’t going to get it done, per FantasyPoints Data.
The separation numbers leave a lot to be desired, and in Week 5, 90.9% of his routes came on the perimeter, which was far and away his highest mark in a game this season. If he isn’t going to be moved around or be schemed up for touches, where’s the upside? If you take away his rushing touchdown in Week 4, his highest fantasy output (PPR) in a game this season is 6.9 points. In fact, on 18 targets, he has 18.6 fantasy points, and on three rush attempts, he has 9.7 fantasy points.
Fantasy Football Buy-Low Candidates
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Players with an RB1 pedigree typically don’t ever really present themselves as buy-low opportunities, but we somewhat have that with Brown. Through five weeks, he’s averaging just over 13 fantasy points per game, but his 3.46 yards per carry and 1.32 yards before contact per attempt leave a good bit to be desired, per FantasyPoints Data. The buying opportunity with Brown here is due to the fact that Samaje Perine played a larger role in Week 5, and now the team goes on bye, so the recency bias and the long wait until the next game may give the fantasy team that has Brown in your league some panic. Or, perhaps they are struggling, can’t afford to lose another game, so you can swoop in, take on Brown’s bye week, but have him the rest of the way. He’s involved in the passing game, and he’s still the team’s lead back, and to be fair, it’s been a rough schedule for him as a RB to begin the season.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Is this a league-winning move, or even a flashy, glamorous one? No, but with the injuries at RB and the bye weeks looming large, it’s possible that your fantasy team could use some help at RB or a potential flex option. Sure, Spears had just two carries against Houston, but he caught all nine of his targets for 28 yards in that game. Week 5 was Spears’ most involvement in a game this year, as he posted his highest snap share and highest route participation rate in a game this season, per FantasyPoints Data. Cam Ward has targeted RBs slightly above the league average, and his checkdown rate (11%) is above the league average as well, per FantasyPoints Data. He’s good with the ball in his hands, and with Tennessee likely going to be playing from behind a ton, he could be an interesting flex option in deeper PPR formats. He’s a very low-cost acquisition that won’t take much to get.
Fantasy Football Sell-High Candidates
MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers
Wait, MarShawn Lloyd put up 16.7 fantasy points in Week 5? Okay, add him to the trade block! Green Bay’s offensive line can’t run block; they are extremely pass-happy (67.8% pass rate), and Lloyd’s inefficiency is troubling. Sure, while his O-Line isn’t helping him much, Lloyd has a well below average 1.32 yards after contact per attempt, 2.8 yards per carry, and the second-highest stuff rate (57.5%) amongst RBs with at least 30 carries through the first five weeks, per FantasyPoints Data.
He has one of the worst rush yards over expectation (RYOE) marks in the league at -55.5, and he’s posted a negative RYOE in all five games this season. Even in Week 5, despite two TDs inflating his fantasy production, he posted just 3.1 yards per carry and -11.2 RYOE.
Green Bay will remain pass-happy, Lloyd will remain largely ineffective, and while he does have a strong-ish presence in this backfield, it’s time to capitalize on this performance, which I will remind you, was his first game with double-digit fantasy points this season.
Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins
Willis topped 20 fantasy points in Week 5 for the first time in a game this season, despite throwing more interceptions (2) than TD passes (1), completing just 55% of his passes, and throwing for 137 yards. Everyone knows that Willis’ mobility is the key that unlocks his fantasy success, and he just posted 74 yards and a score on eight rushing attempts. His 13.3% designed carry share in Week 5 was his highest mark in a game, and he’s a very effective scrambler (9.8 yards per scramble), per FantasyPoints Data.
He does have 12+ fantasy points in all but one game this season, but issues with his supporting cast and play caller give me some pause moving forward. No De’Von Achane. He’s throwing to three rookie wide receivers. His starting tight end has yet to catch more than 35 passes in a season. Bobby Slowik has this offense operating at a slower pace, the second-lowest pass rate over expectation, and a below-league-average RPO rate, per FantasyPoints Data. Why not utilize the RPO game with your hyper-mobile quarterback?
As good as he might be able to be with his rushing upside, he’s completed more than 60% of his passes in just one game this season, and if you’re able to upgrade the stability of your QB2 by including Willis in a deal coming off a good game, I’d be highly interested in doing that.