Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books, and all of the estimating of roles, splits, and more can be set aside because we have actual usage and numbers to break down. It’s important not to just look at the box score when evaluating players and stating whether their fantasy football stock is up or down. Many times, the numbers under the hood can paint a true picture of a player’s usage, value, or role. That’s the idea behind our Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers series. Throughout the season, we’ll monitor these underlying metrics and trends to identify fantasy football breakout candidates, waiver wire targets, trade targets, sleepers, and players who have seen their fantasy football stock go up or go down. Also, be sure to check out a few players I identified as possible fantasy football buy-low and sell-high candidates! If you want to stay ahead of your league, these are the fantasy football trends and fantasy football values you need to know as Week 1 is in the rearview mirror, and we head into Week 2 of the NFL season.

 

 

 

Biggest Fantasy Football Risers Before Week 2

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Oh, man! It’s hard to imagine a better first game for Lamar Jackson under new play caller Declan Doyle. After an underwhelming 2025 season, Jackson comes out in Week 1 and racks up 324 passing yards and one touchdown, while adding 40 yards and a score on the ground. With Doyle calling the shots, Jackson was under center at a higher rate than the previous year, and under center in Week 1, he posted a 116.7 passer rating and over 14 yards per attempt, per FantasyPoints Data. Furthermore, play action is going to be a staple for this offense, as Jackson posted a 118.8 passer rating and over 16 yards per attempt. 

While I wasn’t a believer that this Colts defense would be great in 2026, I don’t believe this is a scenario where this performance was more about Indy’s defense than Jackson and the Baltimore offense. Doyle comes from the Ben Johnson coaching tree, and we know the offensive mastermind that Johnson is.

It was somewhat hard for Jackson to really go up given that he was usually the second or third quarterback off the board, but this was a dominant start, and exactly what fantasy managers wanted to see.

David Montgomery, Houston Texans

While I believe there will be weeks when Woody Marks is a bit more involved, Montgomery was excellent for the most part in his Houston debut. Three yards per carry isn’t great by any means, but 20 carries, three touchdowns, and some work in the passing game was awesome. He was the RB1, not 1A, handled all of the team’s carries at the goal line, and he even posted a higher route participation rate than Marks.

One thing I’ll be curious to see going forward is if Houston cuts out the zone rushing attempts and leans into a heavy man/gap run concept. On zone runs in Week 1, Montgomery averaged just 1.64 yards per carry, but on man/gap concepts, Montgomery (4.67 YPC) and Marks (6.57 YPC) were both far more effective.

There were some questions throughout the fantasy draft season of just how much of a split there would be in this Houston backfield. While I think there could be a little fluctuation from week to week, I think it’s clear that the team loves what Montgomery brings to the table, and at the very least, he’ll be the 1A.

Kaelon Black, San Francisco 49ers

If there were any questions about who the RB2 was in San Francisco, we got our answer. Christian McCaffrey.

Just as we all expected, Kaelon Black handled more carries than McCaffrey in Week 1, and played over 40 percent of the snaps! Black posted 4.64 yards per carry against a solid Rams defense, and albeit the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt amongst Week 1 RBs with at least 10 carries, he has cemented himself as the guy behind McCaffrey. He caught his only target for five yards, so it does feel like he’ll need to find the end zone to pay off as a flex play. 

I’m not confident about him as your flex guy quite yet, outside of very deep formats, but it’s clear that if anything were to happen to McCaffrey, he will become a legit workhorse for this Niners team. Oh, and I’d expect a good amount of carries for him the next two weeks, as San Fran should be playing with leads against the Dolphins and Cardinals in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively.

Biggest Fantasy Football Fallers Before Week 2

Makai Lemon, Philadelphia Eagles

Well, it was an active Week 1 for Lemon, but also not all that active, to say the least.

The Good: Lemon had an 84.8% route participation rate, and he caught three of his four targets.

The Bad: The rookie wideout posted -0.18 yards per route run, -1 air yard, and ended the day with negative receiving yards. In fact, no one had fewer receiving yards than Lemon in Week 1. NO ONE!

At least the rookie was out there, so fantasy managers have that to hang their hat on, but in terms of the final box score, that was a rough debut. Also, cover your eyes for a troubling stat regarding Lemon’s debut below:

The good thing is that Lemon can only go up from here, and the fact that he was out there as much as he was after missing time in the preseason with a hamstring injury is highly encouraging.

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

The WR3 on a lackluster offense is typically not very lucrative for fantasy, and that narrative seems to be in play after just one week with the Titans. Despite some offseason hype for Ward and the Titans’ offense with Brian Daboll coming into town, the Titans mustered just 10 points against the Jets. In this game, Ridley had a below-league-average separation score; he didn’t see a single target, and Ward completed fewer than 60% of his passes with a porous 4.38 yards per attempt.

Four Tennessee receivers saw a target in this game, but as previously mentioned, Ridley didn’t see a single target. Most of his snaps came when lined up out wide, and in Week 2, the Titans take on an Eagles squad that allowed a 69.5 passer rating and the fifth-lowest fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers, per FantasyPoints Data.

 

 

 

Fantasy Football Buy-Low Candidates

Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

I’ll admit that I’m skeptical that someone is going to be willing to move off Loveland after one week where the Bears put up 50+ points as a team, but perhaps the Loveland owner in your league is a bit overreactive, or simply always willing to make a deal. Yes, in a game the Bears nearly scored 60 points, Loveland didn’t catch a single pass, despite an elite 84.2% route participation and strong 13.50 average depth of target (aDOT), per FantasyPoints Data. He lined up out wide more compared to his rookie season, and while the box score isn’t what fantasy managers wanted, the numbers under the hood look ready for sustainable fantasy production week in and week out.

Again, you might not be able to acquire Loveland, but a goose egg in Week 1 can send some fantasy managers into an overreactionary state. Also, what’s the worst that can happen? You send a trade offer or express interest, and they say no?

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While the Bengals defense was going to be improved in 2026, I think we all expected Mayfield to do a bit more than 216 yards passing in this one. Fortunately, his fantasy day wasn’t a complete disaster, as he totaled 30 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. His 4.48 average depth of target (aDOT) was underwhelming, per FantasyPoints Data, but he still completed an excellent 82.1% of his passes. Overall in Week 1, he posted an elite 92.5% adjusted completion percentage and a zero point zero turnover worthy play rate, per FantasyPoints Data. 

The Browns, Vikings, Packers, and Cowboys are the next four teams on the docket for Mayfield and the Bucs, and three of those four teams allowed 3+ passing touchdowns in Week 1. If you need some quarterback help but don’t want to break the bank for a low-end QB1, Mayfield is going to be your guy to target.

 

Fantasy Football Sell-High Candidates

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Depending on the state of your running back room, you may not be in a position to offload Hall, and I will admit, there was a lot to like from Hall in Week 1. The Jets handled this game, and the game script was solid for Hall, as he handled 22 carries for 102 yards and a rushing touchdown. It is worth noting that Braelon Allen ran more routes in this one, though Hall still did more with the couple of targets he received. Hall is the lead guy in this backfield, and it’s encouraging that there were only two cooks in the kitchen instead of three, and the schedule over the next three weeks for Hall is quite good.

However, I can’t help but think that against teams other than the Titans, things might look a little different for this Jets offense. If someone in your league is a believer in the Jets after Week 1, or simply willing to overpay for a RB who saw 20+ carries in Week 1, floating out Hall to see what you could get might be worthwhile for your squad.

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

Despite showing up here as a sell-high trade candidate, Hubbard’s Week 1 role was solid, all things considered. He handled 45.5% of the carries and posted a strong 58.1% route participation rate, per FantasyPoints Data. Sure, it wasn’t just Jonathan Brooks taking some carries, as AJ Dillon also got in the mix, but Hubbard handled all of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line, en route to 20+ fantasy points in Week 1.

His 1.50 yards after contact per attempt was below the league average, and I firmly believe that with each passing week, Brooks is going to be more involved, eventually getting to a point where it’s a near 50/50 split, or Brooks even takes a slight lead. Sometimes in fantasy football, it’s about being a week early rather than being a week late. Once Brooks gets a more sizable chunk of the workload or has a day with multiple big plays and a touchdown or two, the window to deal Hubbard is going to slam shut. If you can flip Hubbard+ for a better, more stable running back, I’d be looking to do that sooner rather than later.