Week 10 of the NFL season is here and we have four big teams on byes with the Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles and Rams all off this week. That means no Patrick Mahomes, no Tua Tagovailoa and no Jalen Hurts for this week's DFS slate. That said, it's time to dig into our NFL DFS Week 10 projections and rankings. Each week we will break down our top plays, values and fades at the QB position to help you build your NFL DFS lineups for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slate.
Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!
NFL DFS QB Top Tier Picks
Well, after his early season struggles which we can only attribute to the calf injury we have seen Burrow turn the corner over the past few weeks. In Week 9 he threw for 348 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills which followed his 283 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers. Since his abysmal Week 5 performance against the Titans, Burrow has thrown for 10 touchdowns with just two interceptions. This week he faces off against the Houston Texans who have a good, not great, secondary who allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 250+ and two scores in Week 9. With Cinci at home this week and Burrow still at a great price I think he contends for the top overall QB this week.
Listen, no doubt this kid is a stud, but this is a prove it game for me this week. On the road this season Stroud is averaging just 227.8 passing yards per game with only three touchdowns in four games. At home this season he is averaging 340 yards per game with 11 touchdowns. Yes, a lot of those numbers are boosted from the Week 9 performances against the Buccaneers but if he is really going to elevate himself into that next tier of star QB's then he has to perform well this week on the road against the Bengals. I love the talent, the matchup is pretty good too. I will have some shares this week given the state of the position but I really want to see Stroud perform well here.
I'm honestly shocked to see Prescott priced under $7,000 here on the slate as he comes off three straight performances of at least 24 fantasy points and back-to-back games where he has finished with over 30 fantasy points. The Giants season is all but over at this point. They have an offense that can't move the football and now go on the road to face a defense that manhandled them back in Week 1. Their secondary is horrid and they traded away one of their best defensive players in Leonard Williams at the deadline. This has the making of another big week for Dak and Ceedee Lamb.
NFL DFS QB Mid-Tier Picks
Something will give here. As Howard Bender has pointed out, the 49ers pass defense is not very good lately, having given up big games in back-to-back weeks to Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow before their bye week. The Jaguars are also coming off of their bye week and will be home for this matchup. It's not that Lawrence has been awful this season, he is completing 68.3-percent of his passes on the year but he just nine passing touchdowns through eight games. The issue with the touchdowns is the running game. Travis Etienne has seven rushing touchdowns on the season. If Lawrence can find his way to two passing touchdowns this week then he hits value. Let's bet against the idea that the 49ers secondary may have figured something out over the bye week as they look to defense Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram here this week.
From a DFS standpoint we have to love the Commanders offensive approach which is to throw the football more than any team in the NFL. For better or for worse we see Howell attempting 40+ pass attempts per game which means the yardage volume tends to be there for him which also means we don't need those big touchdown games for him to hit 20 points because of it. On days where he does throw multiple touchdowns he goes and breaks the slate like we saw on Week 8 against the Eagles. Now, I do think the Seattle defense is getting better and they tend to play better when at home in Seattle but I'm still going to give Howell a look here in tourneys.
The FOMO factor I think will be in full effect here with week with Kyler Murray expected to make his season debut for the Cardinals in Week 10 at home against the Atlanta Falcons. The price isn't too bad given what we've seen his ceiling be when the Cardinals offense is moving. He has some mobility but coming off the torn ACL we just likely temper some expectations here. He is a GPP only play if I'm making multiple lineups.
NFL DFS QB Value Picks
Yes, I have a value play as the cover of the QB Coach this week and yes that QB happens to be Baker Mayfield who I have dogged consistently for most of, if not all of, his NFL career. That said, I've played him a handful of times this year with the Bucs and this is another spot where I'm going to do that. The Titans pass defense is not very good and we have Mayfield here at home, Good value for a guy who can easily go for 250 and two scores in this matchup seeing how good the Titans are at stuffing the run, the Buccaneers should be forced to throw.
We just saw C.J. Stroud throw for 470 yards and five touchdowns against the Buccaneers secondary last week and while the wide receiver talent may not be comparable we can't forget the fact that Levis did throw for four touchdowns in his NFL debut. The Buccaneers secondary is not good and Levis definitely has a cannon for an arm.
NFL DFS QB Fade
Too expensive in too tough of a matchup against a good Cleveland Browns defense. He likely goes way under-owned given the matchups on this slate and the fact that he has failed to payoff this price tag way more often than he has exceeded value this year.