Let's get ready to break down my top player prop bets for this Sunday's Week 9 action in the NFL. We've got some juicy matchups on tap, like the Colts against the Steelers, Chiefs versus Bills, and Falcons at Patriots, and I'm honing in on spots where the stats, trends, and game scripts line up perfectly for these plays. I've been digging into the numbers all week, and these are the ones I'm buying hard into, let's get after it!

 

Best NFL Week 9 Player Prop Picks: Jonathan Taylor First Touchdown

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is a strong option to score the first touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend. Through eight games, he leads the league with 850 rushing yards on 143 carries at 6.0 yards per attempt and 12 rushing touchdowns. He's also scored the first touchdown for the Colts in each of the last two games. The Steelers allow 4.4 yards per carry and eight touchdowns to running backs, and with Taylor handling most of work, this +300 line has a ton of value this weekend.

 

NFL Week 9 Player Prop Bets: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns

This is a play we've hammered a lot lately and Mahomes hasn't really let us down with three or more passing TD's in three straight games an four of the last five. The line for Mahomes 2.5 passing touchdowns is at +155 against the Buffalo Bills this weekend. He's thrown 17 touchdowns so far this season and with Isiah Pacheco ruled out the Chiefs may look to lean on Mahomes even more in this contest.

 

NFL Week 9 Player Props: Kayshon Boutte Over 37.5 Receiving Yards -113

We infamously nailed the Boutte game when the Patriots faced off against the Saints as he was returning home to Louisiana and showed out. The production has continued for Boutte int he weeks since that explosive performance and what we love here is that Boutte is the Patriots deep threat and literally nobody has been throwing the deep ball better than Drake Maye in the history of the NFL. No, that's no hyperbole, those are actual facts. With the Patriots without Rhamondre Stevenson this weekend I'm expecting the Patriots passing attack to really drive the offense even more this weekend which means Boutte should be getting his fair share of targets. 
 

 

NFL Week 9 Player Props Top Picks: Joe Flacco Over 34.5 Pass Attempts

The shoulder soreness is certainly something you need to consider when taking this play and I completely understand if you choose to fade it knowing that at some point Flacco could make whatever is going on in his arm worse BUT at least for now everything is good to go and he has a really good matchup to throw the football this weekend against a BAD Chicago Bears pass defense. Flacco has only gone under 34.5 passing attempts twice this season with one of those misses coming last week when he attempted just 34 passes. 

 

NFL Week 9 Player Props Top Picks: Tyler Allgeier Under 24.5 Rushing Yards

The Patriots have one of the NFL's elite run defenses, surrendering the league's second-lowest yards per carry at 3.5. They've stifled top backs all season: Quinshon Judkins managed just 19 yards on 9 carries before his injury, Tony Pollard 18 on 6, Alvin Kamara 31 on 10, James Cook 49 on 15 and no runner has cracked 50 yards against them. Now they face Tyler Allgeier, who's nursing a knee issue and typically sees only 20-30% of Atlanta's offensive snaps. With limited touches against this dominant front, it's hard to see him gaining any traction.

 

NFL Week 9 Player Props Top Picks: Brashard Smith Over 2.5 Receptions

I'm still feeling the sting from last week when Smith didn't get a single target by Mahomes after having gone four straight games with at least three catches and 20+ yards receiving. But, we put that behind us and move forward to Week 9 where the Chiefs will be without Isiah Pacheco and therefore should thrust Smith into an increased snap share even if Kareem Hunt is going to be the lead running back. As I stated before, prior to last weeks goose egg the rookie RB had at least three catches in four straight weeks and three catches is what we need here this week against the Buffalo Bills this weekend.

 


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