NFL TNF Best Player Prop Picks: Week 5 - Thursday, 10/2
Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off with a divisional showdown on Thursday Night Football as the San Francisco 49ers host the Los Angeles Rams.
With two high-powered offenses and plenty of star power on both sides, it’s the perfect stage for some intriguing player prop opportunities.
Our NFL expert Jon Impemba breaks down his favorite picks for this primetime matchup, helping you lock in the best value ahead of kickoff.
Best NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Picks: Brian Robinson Over 19.5 Rushing Yards
This play comes down to game script and opportunity. The 49ers enter Thursday night banged up on offense, missing QB Brock Purdy, TE George Kittle, and wideouts Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings. With so many key weapons sidelined, it’s reasonable to expect San Francisco to lean heavily on the ground game against the Rams.
That opens the door for backup RB Robinson Jr., who has quietly cleared this rushing total in all four games this season posting a low of 20 yards and as many as 33 in Week 1.
There are two clear paths to the over: either Robinson picks up yards in his usual rotational role as the Niners run the ball, or he gets extra late-game carries if the Rams run away with this one and San Francisco looks to rest Christian McCaffrey.
Either way, the volume outlook makes the over on Robinson Jr.’s rushing prop an appealing play.
49ers vs Rams Player Props: Joshua Karty Over 1.5 Field Goals Made
We hit on Karty’s field goal prop last week against the Colts, cashing the over 1.5 in the first half, and I’m ready to run it back tonight. The Rams get a home matchup against a 49ers defense that, while banged up on offense, remains relatively healthy on the defensive side and should make life difficult for Matthew Stafford and company.
That sets up plenty of “bend but don’t break” scenarios, where stalled drives turn into field goal attempts. Sean McVay has no problem leaning on his kicker, and with Karty’s range including the ability to hit from 50+ the over 1.5 field goals is once again a strong play.
49ers vs Rams Player Prop Bets: Puka Nacua Over 1.5 1st Q Receptions
Puka Nacua remains the clear focal point of the Rams’ passing attack, and with Los Angeles favored by 8.5 at home in a modest 43.5 total, the expectation is that he does his damage early.
Last week he set the tone right away, drawing three targets in the first six plays and converting two with ease. Look for a similar script tonight heavy involvement from the jump before game flow potentially slows things down late.
Betting on Nacua to cash early looks like the smart angle here.
Thursday Night Football Player Props: Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown
Davante Adams is the go-to anytime touchdown pick to start things off with a bang.
The Rams' star wideout has scored in three consecutive games, dominating as a red zone beast with a 47% target share in those high-stakes situations through the season's opening month.
The 49ers boast a stout run defense, and while Kyren Williams is a touchdown-scoring machine, expect Adams to see plenty of end-zone opportunities tonight against San Francisco's pass defense.
49ers vs Rams Player Props: Mac Jones Over 33.5 Pass Attempts
This one carries some variance, but the game script sets up for a pass-heavy night from Mac Jones.
With the 49ers coming in as road underdogs and shorthanded on offense, they’ll likely need to lean on the air attack just to keep pace with the Rams.
Jones has already shown he’s not shy about slinging it, racking up 39 and 41 attempts in his two starts this season. Expect Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson to be his primary downfield options, with Christian McCaffrey absorbing plenty of short targets to balance things out.
If San Francisco falls behind in the second half, Jones should be airing it out non-stop, making the over on his passing attempts an attractive play.
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