Looking for the best NFL player prop picks today for Week 8's Sunday slate? From a Jaguars lead back facing the worst run defense by EPA to a Cardinals passer heading into the week's highest-total game, there is plenty of value to dig into. Below, we break down our top NFL Sunday Week 8 player prop picks, complete with the lines and the matchup context behind each play.
Best NFL Sunday Week 8 Player Prop Picks
Week 8's Sunday slate features several defenses in tough spots, with Indianapolis ranking 29th in rush defense DVOA, Dallas 30th in pass defense DVOA, Miami 30th in DVOA against tight ends, and the Raiders 25th in pass defense DVOA and near the bottom in passing touchdowns allowed. Here are the props we like best from that slate.
Colts vs. Jaguars Player Props: Bhayshul Tuten Over 66.5 Rushing Yards
Tuten has been Jacksonville's lead back all season, rushing for 388 yards on 94 carries through six games (64.7 per game), and he has topped this number three times, with 73, 73, and 72 yards in Weeks 3 through 5. He has played at least 58% of the snaps in each of the last three games, averaging nearly 18 touches per game on roughly two-thirds of the backfield opportunities, and he caught two touchdowns in the Week 6 loss to Houston. Indianapolis is a matchup to like, ranking last in EPA per rush and 29th in rush defense DVOA while playing without DeForest Buckner after his trade, and Jacksonville is a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points coming off its bye, a script that favors the ground game. His 4.1 yards per carry leaves little margin and Chris Rodriguez took 11 carries for 55 yards against Houston, so this is not a lock, but a lead back this heavily favored against the league's worst run defense by EPA looks like a good bet to clear 66.5.
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets: Jacoby Brissett Over 37.5 Pass Attempts
Brissett has thrown 282 passes in seven starts, an average of 40.3 per game, including 52 in Week 3 and 48 last week in a loss to Denver, and he has thrown at least 40 passes in 10 of his 19 starts since taking over in Arizona, where the team is 3-16. The Cardinals are roughly 6.5-point underdogs in a game with a 54.5-point total, the highest on the Week 8 board, and Dallas is tied for the most total yards allowed in the league and ranks 30th in both pass defense DVOA and completion rate allowed, while Arizona's own pass defense ranks last in DVOA, which should keep Dak Prescott's offense scoring and Arizona throwing to keep pace. Brissett averages just 5.7 yards per attempt, so he produces through volume, and coach LaFleur has confirmed he remains the starter. The risk is a lopsided game that leads to rookie Carson Beck late, but clearing 37.5 attempts looks like a good bet.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Player Props: Eli Raridon Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
Raridon has quickly become the Patriots' second tight end option, catching 12 passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns on 16 targets through six games, including a career-high 57 yards on five catches against Las Vegas and 56 yards and a touchdown on three catches against Chicago last week. He has topped this number in three of his six games (30, 57, and 56 yards), has the highest PFF receiving grade among rookie tight ends at 80.8, and has not dropped a pass all season. Miami gives up the fifth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends and ranks 30th in DVOA against the position, and New England is a favorite of roughly a touchdown, with two-tight-end sets a regular part of the offense. Hunter Henry remains the primary tight end with 26 catches for 296 yards, so Raridon's volume is limited and touchdown-dependent, but clearing 25.5 receiving yards looks like a fair bet.
Raiders vs. Jets Player Prop Bets: Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Smith is coming off a 23-of-30, 287-yard, three-touchdown game in a 28-25 loss to Miami, and he has 10 touchdown passes and two interceptions through seven games while completing about 69% of his passes. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just two of those games, so this is a matchup bet, but the Raiders rank 30th in passing touchdowns allowed, 27th in EPA per pass allowed, and 25th in pass defense DVOA, including 27th against WR1 and 29th against WR2. Smith has found a groove with rookie Omar Cooper Jr., throwing 60 passes for 539 yards and four touchdowns across the two games since Cooper returned from injured reserve, and Cooper has 218 receiving yards over that span. The game is close to a pick'em with a total of 45.5, and while Breece Hall is limited with a quad injury and the Jets are 2-5, Smith's efficiency and the Raiders' defensive problems make clearing 1.5 touchdown passes a fair bet.
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