Looking for the best NFL MNF player prop picks to close out Week 8? The 5-2 Bears visit the 4-3 Seahawks at Lumen Field on Monday night, with Seattle favored by about three points and the total set at 46.5. Below, we break down our top Bears vs. Seahawks player props, complete with the lines and the matchup context behind each play.
Best NFL Monday Night Football Player Prop Picks
Seattle has the league's best defense by DVOA and has allowed the fewest yards per game, while Chicago comes in with a surging offense led by Caleb Williams. Kyle Monangai is out for a fourth straight game, and the Seahawks are without left tackle Charles Cross. Here are the props we like best for Monday night.
Bears vs. Seahawks Player Props: Caleb Williams Over 0.5 Interceptions
Williams has been excellent since returning from his hamstring injury, completing 71% of his passes for 1,020 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception in four starts, but a big part of his game is creativity, extending plays with his legs (128 rushing yards and two touchdowns) and throwing off platform, and that style carries risk against one of the league's best takeaway defenses. Seattle is tied for second in the NFL with 12 takeaways, including eight interceptions, and leads the league in fewest total yards (233.9) and fewest passing yards (144.4) allowed per game. The Seahawks rank first in defensive DVOA, second in pass defense DVOA, first in zone coverage rate, and fourth in pressure rate, and they give up very few explosive passes. With big plays that hard to come by, Williams may press to manufacture something out of broken plays, and he has already been sacked 12 times on 150 dropbacks while holding the ball an average of 3.44 seconds. He even acknowledged this week how many turnovers Seattle creates. Without Kyle Monangai, the Bears average 98 rushing yards per game compared with 196 with him, which could put more on his arm. He does rank second in EPA against zone coverage and has thrown just one interception, so this is a bet against the trend, but a defense this good at taking the ball away makes an interception a fair price.
Bears vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets: D'Andre Swift Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
Swift has 22 catches for 152 yards on 26 targets through seven games, about 21.7 per game, and he went for 26 receiving yards in each of the two games before last week's 12-yard effort on four catches. With Kyle Monangai ruled out for a fourth straight game, Swift has been the clear workhorse, handling a season-high 26 opportunities against New England (22 carries and four catches) while Roschon Johnson plays a complementary role. He has caught 22 of 26 targets (85%), and PFF grades his receiving at 74.6, eighth among running backs. Seattle ranks second in pass defense DVOA but 16th in DVOA against running backs, and the Seahawks' league-best limits on explosive passes mean short-area targets to the backfield may be one of Chicago's best ways to move the ball. Clearing 18.5 receiving yards looks like a reasonable bet for a back who is again in line for at least 15 touches.
Monday Night Football Player Props: Sam Darnold Under 1.5 Passing TDs
Darnold has eight touchdown passes in six starts, about 1.3 per game, and he has been the league's most pressured quarterback per dropback this season, with eight interceptions on the year. Seattle's offense has leaned on its defense, scoring 20 against Kansas City in a 20-3 win last week in which he still threw a pick, and the Seahawks just lost left tackle Charles Cross to an ankle injury. Chicago ranks 15th in pass defense DVOA but ranks seventh against WR1, where Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Darnold's favorite target, lines up, and a pass rush that added Jeffery Simmons in a trade has plenty of juice. Seattle is expected to run more to take the heat off Darnold, and with the defense setting the tone, under 1.5 touchdown passes looks like the better side.
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