Thursday Night Football in Week 12 brings an intriguing matchup between the Buffalo Bills (7-3) and the Houston Texans (5-5) at NRG Stadium. With the Bills looking to keep pace in the AFC East and the Texans fighting to stay in the playoff hunt amid injuries, this game offers plenty of opportunities for player props. Houston's starting quarterback, C.J. Stroud, is sidelined with a concussion for his third straight game, paving the way for Davis Mills to start under center. The Bills enter as 6-point favorites with a total of 43.5, setting the stage for a potentially high-volume passing affair if Houston falls behind early. Below, we break down our top player prop picks, backed by key stats and trends.

 

 

 

Best NFL Monday Night Football Week 11 Player Prop Picks: Jayden Higgins Over 2.5 Receptions

In 10 games this season, the Texans' rookie has hauled in 23 receptions on 36 targets for 256 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 2.3 catches per game. However, his recent usage tells a stronger story as Higgins has totaled nine catches on 14 targets over the last two weeks. With the Texans as six-point home underdogs and likely needing to pass to keep pace with the Bills' offense, I’m looking for the Mills/Higgins connection to continue to grow in this Thursday Night Football matchup.
 

 

 

Bills vs Texans Best Bet: Josh Allen Anytime TD

Allen remains one of the most dynamic dual-threat players in the league, and his goal-line prowess makes this prop a standout. In 10 games this season, Allen has rushed for 351 yards on 65 attempts (5.4 yards per carry) and notched an impressive 10 rushing touchdowns, averaging one per game. His game log highlights his scoring consistency: He has found the end zone via rush in multiple games, including multi-TD performances like three against Tampa Bay, two against Kansas City, and two against Carolina. The Texans boast a strong overall defense, allowing just 79.2 opponent rushing yards per game and 14.8 points per contest, but Allen's mobility and designed runs near the goal line often transcend matchup challenges.

 

 

 

Bills vs Texans Best Bet: Davis Mills Over 32.5 Pass Attempts

With C.J. Stroud out, veteran backup Davis Mills steps in for his third straight start, and his recent usage screams volume. In four appearances this season (two starts), Mills has averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game overall, but that jumps to 43.0 in his starts: 41 attempts in a Week 11 win over Tennessee and 45 in a Week 10 victory against Jacksonville. Those games saw Houston in competitive scripts, but against a strong Bills team, the Texans could trail and rely even more on the air attack.

 

 


 

Bills vs Texans Best Bet: Nick Chubb Over 21.5 Rushing Yards

Chubb has been a reliable ground-game contributor despite sharing carries in a committee backfield this season for the Texans. In 10 games this season, he has averaged 41.9 rushing yards per game on 9.9 attempts, with a 4.2 yards per carry average. His game log shows consistency, hitting over 21.5 yards in eight of 10 outings, including recent performances of 47, 34, and 56 yards. Even in his lower-output games (16 and 17 yards), he was close to the mark. Yes, last week he saw a season low three rushing attempts against the Titans, but this matchup favors Chubb, as the Bills' run defense ranks near the bottom of the league, allowing 153.0 opponent rushing yards per game (31st in the NFL) and 25.6 opponent rushing attempts per game, indicating teams have success pounding the rock against them. 
 

 

 

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