Need the best PrizePicks NFL picks today to close out Week 4? The Falcons and Saints, both 1-2, wrap up the week in New Orleans with one of the better passing offenses in the league facing one of the worst pass defenses. Below, we cover our favorite PrizePicks NFL picks for this matchup, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.

Falcons vs. Saints: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

New Orleans leads the NFL in pass attempts and ranks third in passing yards, while Atlanta ranks 29th in pass defense and last in the league in turnover differential. On the other side, the Falcons average 173.0 rushing yards per game, second in the NFL, against a Saints run defense that has allowed at least 108 rushing yards in every game. Let's break down the PrizePicks plays we like most for this matchup.

 

 

 

Best PrizePicks NFL Picks for MNF, Week 4

Tyler Shough NFL PrizePicks Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs

Shough has been an early favorite for pick'em players, throwing eight touchdowns across three games (three, one, and four) and scoring at least 22 fantasy points in every start. The Saints lead the NFL in pass attempts, and the matchup is a friendly one, with Atlanta ranking 29th in pass defense at 263.0 yards allowed per game and carrying the league's worst turnover differential at minus-6. Etienne's move to injured reserve only tilts the Saints further toward the air, so clearing 1.5 passing touchdowns looks like a good number.

Brian Robinson NFL PrizePicks Pick: Higher 30.5 Rushing Yards

Robinson has produced a dependable floor behind Bijan Robinson, rushing for 31, 51, and 50 yards on nine, 11, and 10 carries, and he found the end zone for the first time as a Falcon in the win over Green Bay. The Falcons have the NFL's second-best rushing offense at 173.0 yards per game, and they face a Saints run defense that ranks 27th at 128.7 yards allowed per game and has given up at least 108 rushing yards in all three games. With a steady workload and a soft matchup, he has cleared this number in every game so far and should do so again.

PrizePicks NFL Player Projections for Falcons vs. Saints

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Shough and Robinson as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every PrizePicks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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