Sentiment can change quickly in the NFL. One year, you are going to the Super Bowl, and everyone is lauding the combination of your coach and quarterback, Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, as the start of a new dynasty. Three games into the next year, folks are asking if maybe Drake Maye isn’t the answer at QB or if your coach has lost his fastball. Beating the Buffalo Bills would go a long way in changing that narrative.

The Buffalo Bills, however, have every incentive to further send the Patriots into a tailspin. For years, Tom Brady tormented the franchise. But the heartbreak in Buffalo started well before that, with the Jim Kelly era and four straight Super Bowl losses. From the Music City Miracle to the recent seasons, Bills fans deserve to actually make it to the mountaintop one of these days. Putting the New England Patriots even deeper in the hole would go a long way towards that goal.  

🏅 Patriots vs. Bills Expert Pick: DeMario Douglas Longest Reception Under 15.5 Yards (-122 on DraftKings)

We know that these books are using some sort of formula to come up with these lines. And there’s no doubt that recency bias is factored in to some degree. Otherwise, this line would most likely be set lower for Demario Douglas. But last week he had a single catch for 38 yards down the sideline, so the numbers seemed to be skewed.

Anyone who has been watching this Patriots team knows that that isn’t the typical role for Douglas. Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are the ones who operate on the outside while Douglas runs low aDot routes out of the slot. He has six other catches this year that have gone for 1, 1, 5, 5, 8, and 9 yards - all under 10 yards. Given his playstyle as well as the Bills' “bend, don’t break” defensive philosophy, we would need two fairly uncharacteristic long plays two weeks in a row for Douglas to hit here. 

 

 

 

👀 How To Watch Patriots vs. Bills NFL Week 4

  • Where: Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, NY
  • When: 1 PM ET on 10/4
  • Watch on TV: CBS
  • Where to stream: Paramount+

🔢 Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

 

 

 

🏉 Patriots vs. Bills Injury Report & Latest News

The Buffalo Bills aren’t just undefeated. They are leading the league in scoring with 33.7 points per game on 13 total touchdowns through three games. The Patriots will need to travel to their brand-new stadium to try to stop the hottest team in football. The main injury concern for Buffalo is cornerback Christian Benford, who left the Chargers game with a toe injury and was seen in a boot afterward. His status is still uncertain for this week. Wide receiver DJ Moore (shoulder/AC joint) played through it last week and is expected to be available again, while Keon Coleman (ankle) was also nicked up but was inevitably active in Week 3.

There is no shortage of negative storylines on the Patriots side. The coach had a dramatic offseason, to say the least. Drake Maye has fallen back to earth after almost winning both the Super Bowl and NFL MVP but coming up empty-handed. And a lot of the issues with the team have stemmed from injuries. The biggest blow is No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown, who landed on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain, the kind of injury that can hamper you well beyond the four-game minimum on IR. Guard Greg Van Roten (thigh) is also banged up after the Jacksonville game, and Dre'Mont Jones (shoulder) adds to a crowded injury list. The Patriots rank 31st in scoring at just 12 points per game despite having a top-five defense. And it will be hard to keep that defensive ranking after facing Josh Allen and company this week. 

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