49ers vs. Dolphins Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 16, Sunday 12/22

The season has not gone according to plan for either the San Francisco 49ers or Miami Dolphins this year. Per ESPN Analytics, the odds of the both the 6-8 Dolphins and 49ers making the post-season are less than 5%. They need a lot of help and specific scenarios for that to happen.
But that doesn’t mean they just give up. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagailoa said that they “aren’t planning any trips to Cabo” yet and they play to finish the season how they planned. And both these teams are still dangerous so our 49ers vs. Dolphins predictions for Week 16 could be fun ones to make!
Even if you just want to see the 49ers vs. Dolphins odds and have 49ers vs. Dolphins picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus!
49ers vs. Dolphins Predictions For NFL Week 16, Sunday 12/22
There is a lot of “history” between these teams even if they don’t play that often. And that’s in large part of Mike McDaniel being from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. Since leaving for Miami, these teams have squared off once in 2022 with the 49ers winning 33-17 in San Francisco.
Last week was essentially a “must win” for the Dolphins. But they fell 20-12 to the Texans. They won four of their last six but were already in a hole from the stretch of games that Tua Tagovailoa missed with a concussion. The 49ers have dealt with their own injury issues and have dropped four of their last five with their only win coming against the Chicago Bears. Last week’s loss to the Rams in the rain was crucial.
San Francisco 49ers: Riddled With Injuries
On paper, the 49ers have a number of players that have a claim to being the best at their position. Unfortunately two of them, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams, are already out for this week. In fact, backup running back Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, and Isaac Cuerendo are also out leaving Patrick Taylor atop that depth chart. Brandon Aiyuk is already done for the season and Deebo Samuel has not had more than 22 receiving yards in five straight contests. George Kittle and Jauan Jennings have been the bright spots.
On defense Nick Bosa, one of the league’s best pass rushers, is also questionable. Star linebacker Fred Warner has apparently been playing on a broken ankle while De’Vondre Campbell literally quit on the team mid game. The 49ers have still managed to be pretty decent against the pass but they have struggled to stop the run.
Miami Dolphins: Also Missing Key Pieces
The Miami Dolphins have had their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back. But they have some other key injuries that have hampered this team. Tyreek Hill has been dealing with a wrist issue all season. Now Jaylen Waddle is listed as doubtful for this game. Terron Armstead, who is just as important as Trent Williams is to the 49ers in a very similar scheme, is also questionable to play this week.
The Dolphins' defense actually ranks 8th in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game, which is pretty solid. However, FTN Fantasy’s statistic DVOA, which attempts to factor in strength of schedule, suggests that maybe their opponents have been a little soft. There metrics rank them 20th against the pass and 24th against the run so perhaps not as good as the surface level stats suggest.
49ers vs. Dolphins Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
As promised, the latest 49ers vs. Dolphins odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: San Francisco 49ers +1 (-115) vs. Miami Dolphins -1 (-105)
- Money Line: San Francisco 49ers (-110) vs. Miami Dolphins (-110)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 44.5 (-110) vs. Under 44.5 (-110)
49ers vs. Dolphins Best Bet: De’Vone Achane Over 5.5 Receptions (+100 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
This might seem like a lot of catches for a running back. But this isn’t your typical running back. Not only does he operate out of the backfield but he runs legitimate routes from the slot. His 22 catches from the slot are 10 more than the next highest RB (Alvin Kamara). He’s already run 95 routes from the slot this year - the last running back to run 100 was Tarik Cohen in 2019 on the Chicago Bears.
Jaylen Waddle is doubtful for this week. So is Dee Eskridge. Braxton Berrios is already out. It’s basically Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, and rookie Malik Washington. The 49ers are thin at linebacker and star cover linebacker Fred Warner will have his hands full with Jonnu Smith. Achane catches 92.1% of his targets per Pro Football Focus and I would not be shocked to see him get double digit targets in a game like this. He doesn’t need that though, he needs 6 for us to hit.
49ers vs. Dolphins Injury Report & Latest News
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:
SF 49ers
- RB Isaac Guerendo - Out
- T Trent Williams - Out
- DL Nick Bosa - Questionable
- LB Dre Greenlaw - Questionable
- DL Robert Beal Jr - Questionable
MIA Dolphins
- LS Blake Ferguson - Out
- WR Jaylen Waddle - Doubtful
- WR Dee Eskridge - Doubtful
- OT Terron Armstead - Questionable
- OT Kendall Lamm - Questionable
- WR Tyreek Hill - Questionable
- LB Bradley Chubb - Questionable
- LB Cameron Goode - Questionable
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