After an extremely thorough look at the remaining NFL Week 13 slate, I am licking my chops when it comes to my best bets against the spread. Looking at a lot of game totals as well. It was a crazy time last week as 12 of the 16 favorites won and covered and had the Minnesota Vikings not let us down on Monday, we would have set a new NFL record for most favorites winning and covering in the modern Super Bowl era. But I'm not sure I'm expecting that once again. Now, apologies to those who were looking for me on Friday's Bettor Sports Betting Show with Dan Servodidio. I had a personal matter to tend to, but I know Jon Impemba filled in admirably. But while I've studied his and Dan's picks and player props, I've got some of my own to share with you here, so let's cut the pleasantries and get down to our football bets for Week 13.



NFL Week 13 Best Bets

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

All week long, I've been talking about how this is the third-straight home game for C.J. Stroud and the Texans and how no travel for such an extended period of time helps boost a team. Stroud's numbers at home have been stellar all season and though he may not have Tank Dell available in this game, I have no fear of him faltering. I also don't like the fact that so many people are hopping onto the Broncos bandwagon with their five-straight wins. Everyone loves Denver again. Everyone loves Sean Payton. They're going to the playoffs and everyone is even starting to turn around on Russell Wilson. Once the public starts clamoring like that, you know I head the other way.

Pick: Texans -3 (-115)

Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets

I did a spit-take when I saw Jon Impemba throw out the no-touchdown prop for +2200 on the show Friday. I don't believe it hits, but what I do believe is that we have two teams that are going to be all about running the football and that's going to keep the scoring down and chew up a ton of clock. This game has all the similarities to the Browns/Steelers game from two weeks ago and last week's Giants/Patriots match-up. I don't see much in the way of touchdowns in this game – maybe one for Bijan Robinson – but overall, this one is going to be pretty boring…but profitable.

Pick: Under 34 (-110)

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This one is about percentages as you've probably heard me say all week. Teams that fire their head coach during the season have won outright or at least covered almost 60-percent of the time in that next game over the last 10 years. Now, it's softened a bit over the past few seasons and the Panthers are a hot mess right now as they lost more than just their head coach, so there is some risk here. But the Bucs are dealing with a variety of injuries on defense – Devin White, Lavonte David and Jamel Dean to name a few – and it's not like they're some juggernaut offense either. We'll go with the overall trend.

Pick: Panthers +5.5 (-115)

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

If you read the NFL DFS Playbook, this pick should come as no surprise. Walking down narrative street, this game has me fading the public which has nearly 80-percent of its money on Detroit. But while, overall, I like the Lions and root for them to have a successful playoff run, this line feels awfully suspicious. Everyone loves the Lions and there's just no way they could possibly look worse than how they looked on Thanksgiving, right? Now I'm not saying they will look worse than they did against the Packers, but if we're so in on Detroit, if they're such a strong team and are 4-1 ATS on the road and the Saints are all sorts of banged-up and missing so many weapons, why is the spread only four points? I don't like it, so I'm going the other way.

Pick: Saints +4 (-110)

Favorite NFL Week 13 Player Props:

**all lines courtesy of BetMGM