Whether you are sitting at the Draft Day table or clicking buttons in your digital war room, the most common question we as analysts are asked is, "Who do I take with the first pick?" It never fails. Everyone wants that magic bullet. Well, I’ve got good news for you. This article series, in conjunction with the Fantasy Alarm Ultimate Cheat Sheet and our brand-new Mock Draft Simulator, will not only help answer that question, but also help guide you with your subsequent picks so you aren't left stranded on an island after the first round.

Let's be real for a second: technically, the perfect draft doesn't exist. Injuries happen, depth charts shift, and chaos reigns supreme in the NFL. But if you follow the draft grid in our cheat sheet and select the proper players at your necessary positions, while keeping value at the forefront of your mind, you can build a team that will take you to the championship. Of course, you can deviate from the cheat sheet blueprint if you really want to—I won't send the fantasy police to your house. But be careful that you don't overlook strong value, especially at positions you may feel like you already have covered.

If there is a player available from an earlier round and it is from either the running back or wide receiver position, consider that player first regardless of what position they play. You can balance out your roster further into the draft! If your league is going to hand you a player who has second-round value in the fourth round of your draft, you should take it 99 times out of 100. We know the draft is just the first step in a long season, and your waiver wire work and lineup choices need to be on point, but if you start with this approach, failure is no longer an option. Let’s dive into the ultimate fantasy football pick 1 draft strategy using a fantasy football draft position strategy built for dominance.

Round 1, Pick 1: Draft a Running Back

Why: Whether you are planning to go Hero/Anchor-RB or Robust-RB, landing yourself a true bell-cow running back with your first pick should be a top priority. There aren't many remaining during a time when so many NFL coaches love to use a tandem running back strategy. When executing your fantasy football pick 1 draft strategy, you need a certified anchor.

Top Target: Bijan Robinson, RB Atlanta Falcons

To execute a premium fantasy football pick 1 draft strategy, you need a player with an undisputed elite floor and a matchup-winning ceiling. Robinson is the definition of a modern archetype bell-cow, fresh off a dominant season where he hit 2,298 total yards from scrimmage and handled over 360 touches. He commands a monstrous share of the Falcons' ground game while doubling as a hyper-efficient asset in the passing game. In high-stakes environments, Robinson's metrics are staggering—he routinely logs a snap share north of 75% and commands a target share that rivals top-tier wide receivers. He gives you a rock-solid foundation that guarantees elite production every single week.

Other Targets: Jahmyr Gibbs

 

 

 

Round 2, Pick 24: Draft Wide Receiver

Why: There are still a handful of elite-level wide receivers on the board at the back half of the second round, and you want to make sure you grab one while you can.

Top Target: Nico Collins, WR Houston Texans

Waiting 22 picks at the turn can test your patience, but executing an elite fantasy football pick 1 draft strategy means striking when top-tier talent slides. Nico Collins is your alpha target here. Collins has further solidified himself as a true WR1, coming off a spectacular campaign where he earned an elite 26% target share and averaged an incredible 3.11 yards per route run—ranking him among the top ten most efficient wideouts in the entire league. Catching passes in an improved offense as C.J. Stroud's number one option, Collins is a lethal threat downfield and an absolute machine after the catch. Snagging his explosive weekly ceiling at the 2/3 turn gives your roster elite balance.

Other Targets: Chris Olave, DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice

Round 3, Pick 25: Draft a Running Back

Why: We love a Robust-RB draft strategy, especially when you can anchor your roster with two true bell-cow performers. The last of the remaining bell-cow backs are still available, so grab your second and feel good about it. The position thins out really fast this year, making this a pivotal turn for your fantasy football draft position strategy.

Top Target: Kenneth Walker, RB Kansas City Chiefs

Fresh off a championship campaign where he earned an elite 88.4 overall PFF grade (2nd among NFL running backs), Walker excelled as a per-touch marvel by ranking 6th in explosive rush rate (12.3%) and capturing a massive 27% missed tackle rate. Landing a historic three-year contract to spearhead Andy Reid's offense, he steps into an uncontested backfield where models project his workload to skyrocket to 276 carries and 48 receptions. This workload creates an ironclad high-value baseline, while his 1.40 yards per route run signals untapped receiving upside alongside Patrick Mahomes—making him the perfect high-ceiling anchor for your fantasy roster in Round 2.

Other Targets: Javonte Williams, Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs

Round 4, Pick 48: Draft a Wide Receiver

Why: Unless there is a true bell-cow back mistakenly left available, you can move on to the other positions. You could take your tight end here, but ONLY if it's Colston Loveland. If he is already gone, stick to wide receiver and deal with your tight end later.

Top Target: Luther Burden, WR Chicago Bears

At this stage of the draft, we are hunting for elite, alpha-level upside to fill our WR2 slot. Luther Burden is coming off an impressive rookie campaign with more volume to come due to the departure of DJ Moore. He operates beautifully across all levels of the field and specializes in gaining massive chunks of yards after the catch. If Colston Loveland isn't on the board to tempt you at tight end, Burden's guaranteed heavy target volume makes him an easy decision. 

Other Targets: Christian Watson, Mike Evans, Davante Adams

 

 

 

Round 5, Pick 49: Draft a Running Back

Why: Even though you already have two bell-cows on your roster, you always want to make sure you are covered at the flex position as well as for your upcoming bye weeks. You can grab one of the remaining potential bell-cows, but you also have the flexibility to shoot for a real upside play at the running back position.

Top Target: TreVeyon Henderson, RB New England Patriots

Value is staring you right in the face at the 4/5 turn, and we are not about to pass it up. TreVeyon Henderson is a premier talent who boasts true elite metrics, having averaged over 5.1 yards per carry in his rookie season and could be in for even more work. While some fantasy managers might worry about split backfields, Henderson’s efficiency means he doesn't need 25 touches to change a fantasy matchup. In a small sample size, he has shown he can deliver elite RB1 weeks even on limited volume. Inserting a talent like this into your Flex position puts your roster miles ahead of the competition. 

Other Targets: David Montgomery, Quinshon Judkins

Round 6, Pick 72: Draft a Quarterback

Why: You don't want to be the first person to take a quarterback in your league, but by this time, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are long off the board. You still get a top-five player at the position here. You're getting either a mobile guy who runs with the football or a top-rated passer who has weeks where he is absolutely explosive.

Top Target: Drake Maye, QB New England Patriots

Orchestrating a dynamic, highly aggressive offensive turnaround in 2025, Maye finished second in NFL MVP voting by completing 64.8% of his passes for 4,394 passing yards and 31 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions. Crucially for fantasy managers, Maye weaponized his elite athletic traits to supplement his passing volume, slicing through defenses on the ground to rack up 450 rushing yards and an additional 4 rushing touchdowns—solidifying an incredibly secure weekly scoring baseline. Securing Maye in the fifth round offers a massive structural advantage, with a high-ceiling rushing threat at the quarterback position that could provide league-winning performances each and every week.

Other Targets: Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels

Round 7, Pick 73: Draft A Tight End

Why: If the rest of your league is following the cheat sheet, then now is a great time to get your tight end. Ideally, you want someone who will draw the second-most targets in his team's passing attack. But if it's a high-volume passing team, then being the third target is just fine. If your top target is unavailable, it's ok to look at the next round's options as well.

Top Target: Kyle Pitts, TE Atlanta Falcons

Proving his elite, fully healthy dynamic profile during the 2025 campaign, Pitts commanded a heavy workload by hauling in 88 receptions on 114 targets for 928 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns—ranking second among all NFL tight ends in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), his mismatch capability translated into an elite 82.0 receiving grade (6th at the position) and a robust 400 yards after the catch. Now, Pitts steps into an absolute dream scenario under Kevin Stefanski, a play-caller historically renowned for engineering elite, tight end-centric passing game concepts that lean heavily on multiple-TE sets and heavy play-action concepts. Fresh off signing a historic three-year, $54 million contract extension that cements him as the cornerstone of the franchise, Pitts will serve as the premier vertical seam filter for new quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Securing an athletic anomaly who already boasts a top-10 overall NFL reception baseline all the way in Round 7 hands you an astronomical structural advantage.

Other Targets: Tucker Kraft, Sam LaPorta

 

 

 

Round 8, Pick 96: Draft a Wide Receiver

Why: Many leagues have you starting three wide receivers, so now is a good time to grab your third and firmly establish the core of your starting lineup for the season.

Top Target: Josh Downs, WR Indianapolis Colts

Downs is a premier maneuver to anchor your fantasy football PPR strategy with an elite, high-volume slot asset at a massive draft discount. During the 2025 campaign, Downs struggled with the quarterback play after Daniel Jones was injured, catching just 58 balls on 88 targets for 566 yards and four touchdowns. His underlying efficiency metrics, however, paint the picture of a true PPR cornerstone; he commanded a robust 23.4% target share, logged a highly efficient 1.94 yards per route run, and ranked 11th among all NFL wide receivers with a spectacular 79.5% slot catch rate. With head coach Shane Steichen continuing to dial up a highly concentrated passing attack and with a healthy Jones at QB, Downs' elite 91.2% route participation rate ensures an incredibly safe weekly volume floor, allowing fantasy managers to capture a locked-in WR2 ceiling at a safe, late-mid-round draft cost.

Other Targets: Wan’Dale Robinson, Michael Pittman

Round 9, Pick 97: Draft a Wide Receiver

Why: If your league only starts two receivers, then you could look at the running backs here as well. But if you start three, you want to add a player who can serve as a premium depth option and bye-week replacement.

Top Target: Xavier Worthy, WR Kansas City Chiefs

While superficial box scores show a modest 42 receptions for 532 yards and 1 touchdown across 14 games in 2025, advanced analytical profiles reveal that Worthy maintained a dangerous 12.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and generated 207 yards after the catch, highlighting his continuous big-play threat. Furthermore, tracking data emphasizes his true ceiling when fully healthy: during a healthy stretch from Week 11 through the Super Bowl of his rookie campaign, Worthy averaged a robust 17.1 PPR points per game, which ranked as the WR15 overall. Now entering his third year, fully recovered from a torn shoulder labrum that limited the playbook, drafting Worthy in the ninth round secures a verified separator with record-breaking 4.21 speed inside Patrick Mahomes' explosive offense at a complete floor valuation.

Other Targets: Jayden Reed, Jordan Addison

Round 10, Pick 120: Draft a Running Back

Why: You can never have too much depth at the running back position. Injuries happen all the time in this league, and you're going to need capable bodies who can step up and play. And if there’s a guy on the board who could see the majority of the workload, you have to grab him

Top Target: Jordan Mason, RB Minnesota Vikings

Mason is priced as a backup despite out-producing teammate Aaron Jones across the board last season. Across 16 contests, Mason led Minnesota with 159 carries for 758 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns, registering a stellar 4.8 yards per carry compared to Jones’ 4.2 average. Advanced metrics highlight his physical rushing style, as Mason generated a powerful +1.02 Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE) per attempt and an explosive 56.0% rushing success rate, which easily bested Jones' 49.2% rate. Additionally, Mason ranked third among qualified league ball carriers in explosive run percentage after Week 10. With Kevin O'Connell trusting him near the goal line and a declining 31-year-old counterpart ahead of him, drafting Mason in the 10th round secures a starting-caliber early-down hammer with a top-24 fantasy floor inside Kyler Murray's newly led offense.

Other Targets: Zach Charbonnet, Chris Rodriguez

 

 

 

Round 11, Pick 121: Draft a Wide Receiver 

Why: Again, you're looking for depth and some crucial bye-week help in the double-digit rounds of your draft.

Top Target: Jalen Nailor, WR Las Vegas Raiders

During the 2025 regular season with the Vikings, Nailor proved to be an exceptional per-touch vertical weapon, maximizing a limited workload to catch 29 passes for a career-high 444 yards and 4 touchdowns. His underlying metrics scream high-upside breakout capability; he ranked seventh among all qualified NFL wide receivers with a spectacular 15.3 yards per reception and registered a deep-threat 13.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT), all while being charged with just a single drop on 49 targets. After securing a lucrative three-year, $35 million free-agent contract with Las Vegas, Nailor steps directly into an open starting role following the departure of top target Jakobi Meyers. Backed by an average draft position (ADP) around #148 overall, his elite efficiency metrics make him an absolute steal in Round 11 as he transitions into a high-volume offense.

Other Targets: Jalen Coker, Stefon Diggs (if he signs somewhere), Khalil Shakir, KC Concepcion (if he's your first rookie receiver)

Round 12, Pick 133: Draft a Wide Receiver

Why: Taking a receiver here will solidify your roster with regard to bye-week replacements. You now have strong depth, multiple flexible options, and a complete blueprint executed directly from the number one spot.

Top Target: Malik Washington

Following a massive organizational overhaul that moved on from the team's top options, Washington returns as the team's most experienced aerial asset. During the 2025 regular season, he flash-forwarded his breakout potential by hauling in 46 receptions on 65 targets. While playing a restricted underneath role that yielded a low 5.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT), Washington proved to be a premier yards-after-catch creator, generating an impressive 262 yards after catch (YAC) and an elite 25.9% target rate per route run. Stepping into the 2026 season as the projected starting slot receiver under new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, Washington is primed to serve as the high-volume security blanket for aggressive new starting quarterback Malik Willis. At a consensus draft cost of WR70 (#145+ overall), his cornered target market share offers a remarkably safe PPR weekly floor and immense late-round profit potential. Taking a final swing on a fast receiver in an explosive offense completely rounds out a lethal execution of the fantasy football pick 1 draft strategy.

Other Targets: Rashid Shaheed, Jauan Jennings, Tre Tucker

Round 13–18: Fill Depth

Use any additional picks to draft a kicker and team defense if required; otherwise, stock up on running backs and wide receivers unless you waited on tight end. If you did, then a second TE never hurts. It's all about the Yin-Yang draft philosophy and our Dynamic Tiers.