.Draft season is officially here, and the excitement in the fantasy community is palpable. Everyone is hunting for sleepers and league-winners, but I am here to tell you that winning your league is just as much about who you don’t draft. To build a championship roster, you must successfully navigate the landmines scattered across the early and middle rounds.

Below is a breakdown of exactly how to evaluate risk, identify overvalued fantasy football players, and protect your roster from the true fantasy football busts of the 2026 season.

Fantasy Football Busts Vs Fantasy Football Fades

Before looking at specific names, we need to clarify our terminology. The main difference is that a bust is an objective end-of-season failure, while a fade is a strategic pre-draft decision to avoid a player.

  • A fantasy football bust is a high-drafted player who finishes the season with severely underwhelming production relative to their draft cost, usually due to poor play or a bad team environment.
  • A fantasy football fade is a deliberate draft strategy where you choose not to select a specific player at their current Average Draft Position (ADP). Fading a player does not necessarily mean you think they are bad; it means you believe their market price is too high or that other players drafted near them offer better value.

Defining the "Bust" Exception

Injuries are the exception to the bust label. We cannot predict them, and they can happen to anyone. If a player gets hurt, we aren't calling him a bust.

If your first-round pick stays healthy all season, you start him every week, and he doesn’t return more than a sixth-round value, then he’s a bust. However, if your first-round pick tears his ACL in Week 3, he shouldn’t be labeled as such. It’s just an unfortunate occurrence. There is a significant difference.

In 2025, we told you not to take Ladd McConkey at his late second-round ADP. That was more of a fade. On the flip side, we told you not to take Alvin Kamara regardless of ADP because he didn't fit Kellen Moore's scheme, and that proved to be true. That is a true fantasy football bust.

 

 

 

First-Round Players We're Fading

You can make a legitimate argument against almost any player taken in the first round, but that becomes more of a fade than a bust because all of them are considered the elite at their position. If we are looking at the top-12 according to ADP, the primary fade for me is San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey.

This is more of a personal fade than anything else, as I know some Fantasy Alarm analysts don’t agree with my take. I will not tell someone not to take a player simply because of injury history and potential. But as someone who drafted McCaffrey everywhere last year because of the slight discount I got (very late first round and even the early second), I equate my championships with him on my roster to walking away from the blackjack table while being up a good amount of money.

Sure, I could stay with him, but I also watched as he slowed down towards the end of the season and had some shoulder issues during the 2025 NFL playoffs. He's now on the wrong side of being 30-years-old and has absorbed a significant workload over the years.

McCaffrey's touches may have finally caught up to him. Over his career, he has compiled massive volume, but the underlying efficiency numbers are flashing warning lights. In the 2025 season, McCaffrey's yards after contact per attempt dropped below 3.0 for the first time in his healthy 49ers tenure. His explosive run rate (runs of 15+ yards) plummeted by nearly 4% compared to his peak 2023 campaign. He could be the same guy and receive the same number of touches, but my experience has taught me that sometimes, you have to trust your gut and walk away.

Running Backs with Bust Potential

Identifying true fantasy football bust candidates at running back comes down to parsing backfield shares and tracking coordinator habits.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

His current ADP has him coming off the board as RB14, somewhere around Pick 30. While there is tremendous talent and the Jets just signed him to a three-year extension, you also have to take the words of head coach Aaron Glenn to heart when he said he was excited about the "three-headed monster" in his backfield. That means both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis will both be involved in the game plan and will likely pull critical rushing attempts and receiving targets away from him.

In 2025, Breece Hall managed to command an elite 73% opportunity share when active. However, when multiple backs are integrated into an Aaron Glenn-led game script, historical templates suggest the lead back's share drops closer to 52-55%. At pick 30, losing 15-20% of your expected volume makes it impossible to return value.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While he finally made an appearance at camp, there seemed to be a lot of things working against him. He is slow to recover from a shoulder injury that plagued him for much of the 2025 season. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson prefers a pass-heavy scheme, and the team jettisoned their 2025 pass-catching back Rachaad White so they could pay more money to Kenneth Gainwell, who can not only handle passing work, but could also eat into Irving's carries.

Zac Robinson comes directly from the Sean McVay coaching tree, where the offense consistently ranked near the bottom tier of the league in rushing attempts. Last year, Robinson's passing plays exceeded 62% in neutral game scripts. Furthermore, Kenneth Gainwell logged an impressive 11.2% target share in his previous roles, meaning Irving's upside in PPR formats is practically non-existent.

Travis Etienne, New Orleans Saints

This should serve more as a warning than a declaration of a potential bust candidate. While the Saints signed him to a four-year, $48 million contract, they have not parted ways with Alvin Kamara, who still has one year left on a two-year deal he signed in 2024. Could he share the touches in some way? And what about players like Devin Neal, Audric Estime, newly-signed Ty Chandler, or even the oft-injured Kendre Miller?

Etienne has never been considered a bruising back; you like to see him take it between the tackles on a regular basis, and anyone who has tracked Kellen Moore's history as a coach and coordinator knows that he doesn't like to throw to the running backs.

Remember Tony Pollard in Dallas from 2019-2022? Austin Ekeler in 2023? Even Saquon Barkley in 2024 saw the fewest targets he'd seen in his career under Moore, averaging just 2.6 targets per game. Etienne’s historical fantasy value has relied heavily on passing-game work (averaging over 45 receptions a year prior to this move). If Moore caps his targets, his ceiling shatters. People have hated me for saying it in the preseason, but they always come back to thank me when the season's over.

 

 

 

Wide Receivers We're Avoiding at Cost

When we talk about fantasy football fades at the wide receiver position, volume limitations are almost always the driving factor.

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

Drew Petzing takes over as the new offensive coordinator for the Lions this season, and if we've learned anything from his work in Arizona, it's that he likes a good pass-catching tight end and the scheme really only has one wide receiver shining.

Last season, Petzing used two-receiver sets nearly 50-percent of the time, and the bulk of the targets landed with Trey McBride and only one of the wide receivers, depending on who was healthy at the time. With Amon-Ra St. Brown consistently vacuuming a 29-percent target share and Sam LaPorta holding a 21-percent share, the math simply doesn't work for Jameson Williams. In Petzing's historic WR2 slots, players have averaged fewer than 4.2 targets per game.

DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers

New head coach Mike McCarthy prefers more of an old-school, run-heavy approach, and Aaron Rodgers is looking for a swan song here in his age-42 season. The team signed possession-specialist Michael Pittman in free agency, drafted Germie Bernard, and still has a plethora of tight ends they expect to deploy.

Metcalf saw a career low in targets, receptions, and receiving yards last season. Specifically, his target volume dropped to just 6.1 per game. Under Mike McCarthy’s expected slow-paced, run-first infrastructure and with Rodgers targeting tight ends and possession receivers like Pittman on high-percentage throws, Metcalf's deep-threat profile will suffer from a lack of sheer opportunity.

Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars

This might also be a fantasy football fade as opposed to a bust because we really need to see how things are lining up in Jacksonville this season. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence said that he and Brian Thomas are back on the same page and looking forward to a big year together. Jakobi Meyers signed a three-year deal to stay with the Jaguars back in January, and the handwriting is on the wall that head coach Liam Coen could go the multiple-tight-end route.

Coen’s history shows a heavy reliance on 12-man personnel (two tight ends), re-signing Brenton Strange, and selecting two more tight ends in the draft. Washington’s slot snap share, which stood at 68-percent when he was productive, will be directly cannibalized by Jakobi Meyers' presence and heavy tight end sets. In the final year of his rookie contract, Washington could be the odd man out.

Quarterbacks Being Drafted Too Early

How early is too early to draft your quarterback? Drafting a rushing or, at the least, a mobile quarterback remains all the rage, but given the overall depth at the position, many in single-QB leagues are realizing that the advantage may not be as big as it once was.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Currently coming off the board as the fourth or fifth quarterback in most single-QB drafts, Daniels might be going a little too high. The injuries from last season are what they are, and the Commanders wisely do not want him to change his style of play. But just how much is he going to be able to play at such a high level when defenses key in on him throughout the game?

The Commanders do not have a strong rushing attack, and as it stands right now, Terry McLaurin is the only proven wide receiver target on this team. Daniels averaged a high pressure-to-sack ratio last season, and without a diverse pass-catching corps to bail him out via quick outlets, he will struggle to match his high ADP. McLaurin, rookie Antonio Williams, and TE Chig Okonkwo could be all that he has.

Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins

Yes, an ADP of 146 just might be too high for taking Willis. Granted, he should only be a back-up in a 12 or even 14-team regraft league, but in a superflex league, far too many people are eyeballing him. It's all about the rushing upside. We get it.

Willis has historically put up an adjusted completion percentage under 64% and an abysmal touchdown-to-interception ratio in extended action. Without high-end depth around him, defenses are very likely to focus on stopping De'Von Achane and Willis rather than worry about Malik Washington or Greg Dulcich. You have to be able to throw the ball at this level, and Willis has not yet shown he is capable.

 

 

 

Players The Public Loves but We Don't

By now, the term "Big Fantasy" should be a part of your fantasy football vocabulary. Big Fantasy is the collection of masses who live by consensus rankings and push the "popular" players they like based on college careers and wish-casting-type projections. Over the years, we've seen Big Fantasy push names like Corey Davis, Dontayvion Wicks, Rashaad Penny, Eddie Lacy, and even the aforementioned Austin Ekeler back in 2023 when we told you not to bother. We don't like to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian, but you always need to ask the tough questions.

Luther Burden, WR, Chicago Bears

We actually like Burden and feel like he can really shine in Ben Johnson's offense, so long as he plays the slot/flanker role and Rome Odunze plays the X/split end role. If you want to equate it to Detroit, where Johnson was previously the coordinator, then we want Burden in the Amon-Ra St. Brown role, which, for all intents and purposes, is where he is expected to play.

Keep an eye on him in camp to make sure, because he is coming off the board as WR21 with an ADP around 43, which is a late fourth/early fifth round pick. If his slot rate falls below 65% in camp, he cannot replicate the St. Brown prototype, making that top-50 price tag incredibly dangerous.

KC Concepcion, WR, Cleveland Browns

Big Fantasy loves Concepcion, and while there is certainly talent there, there should be plenty of questions regarding opportunity. First off, who's throwing the football? No one has high expectations of either Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders.

New head coach Todd Monken is well-known for his lean on the tight end position, and last season in Baltimore, he used more two-receiver sets than three or four-receiver sets throughout the season. GM Andrew Berry said Jerry Jeudy wouldn't see his targets disappear when the Browns draft both Concepcion and Denzel Boston, and we know Harold Fannin will garner a strong target share as well. Concepcion will be fighting for scraps in an offense that projects to run 11-personnel (3 WRs) less than 45-percent of the time.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals

While Big Fantasy isn't technically pushing McBride on you, his second-round ADP should give you pause. Gone is OC Drew Petzing and in is Mike LaFleur (with a side of Nathaniel Hackett). Will LaFleur continue to funnel targets to McBride the way Kyler Murray and Petzing did?

We've heard rumblings throughout the spring where LaFleur is defining roles for Marvin Harrison Jr and Michael Wilson -- LaFleur, who comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, mentioned Puka Nacua and Davante Adams as comparisons. In systems where LaFleur or McVay call plays, the WR1 and WR2 typically combine for over 52-percent of the team's total targets, leaving the tight end position with a historical average of just 12-14-percent. Is that a second-round risk you want to take? Remember what we said about Sam LaPorta in the second round two years ago? We told you not to draft him.

Busts We Got Right Last Year

Our process works, and the proof is in the results from last season. We cautioned you about a number of potential underachievers, some of whom are listed below. None of them returned the value expected by those who drafted them.

  • C.J. Stroud: Barely startable at some points last season, as his touchdown percentage regressed significantly from his rookie season.
  • Saquon Barkley: Didn't see even close to the volume as he did the year prior, failing to hit the 20-touches-per-game threshold.
  • Alvin Kamara: Was a complete bust, averaging a career-low yards per carry and getting phased out of the passing game exactly as predicted under Kellen Moore.
  • Ladd McConkey: Failed to return that second-round value where he was being drafted, finishing outside the top-35 fantasy wide receivers.