It’s all that really matters, isn’t it? The breakouts? You’re going to draft your proven “studs” at the start of your fantasy football draft. The guys who have already broken out and top the fantasy football rankings. And you’ll wish on your lucky stars that the injury gods look down favorably upon you. But the way you really win your fantasy football league is by generating value with those later picks and waiver moves. Which player is going to breakout THIS year?

And, believe it or not, it’s never completely random. There is almost always some sort of catalyst that creates the “league winners”. Coaching changes, roster shakeups, injuries - you name it. Somehow, someway, the NFL world is shifted ever so slightly to open up new possibilities. And, every once in a while, we get the perfect convergence of talent, scheme, and opportunity to wake up these fantasy football sleepers. 

So that’s what we’re going to discuss today. The three pieces needed for a breakout player. If you can find talented players in the right scheme, who get the opportunity needed, you could change your whole fortune. Finding the perfect trifecta is not easy, but we’ll share some examples from the past that could make them easier for you to spot. 

Fantasy Football Breakouts - Talent

This is the most obvious one - and where the most emphasis is placed in research. And it’s generally a two-pronged attack. You have the analytics community, scouring the data to figure out what matters and what doesn’t. Then you have the film gurus pouring over hours and hours of football to figure out what allows this player to succeed, where the deficiencies are. You can debate til your last breath “which is more important” when it comes to analytics vs. film. But it’s hard to argue that knowing the numbers while also watching the games to understand the context isn’t a smart approach.

The important thing when identifying breakouts year to year is to have a grasp on what a player does or doesn’t do well. Is a wide receiver better in the short to intermediate area or on deep throws? Is this running back better at reading zone blocking or hitting the hole hard in gap schemes? Is my tight end athletic enough to run real routes and break off big plays? And can any of these guys block well enough to be on the field full-time? That’s going to dictate how they fit into their offensive scheme. We spend a lot of time analyzing talent and tools like our Running Back Questionnaire in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide, which attempts to break down the different running back roles for each team and help us visualize how it will be utilized. 

Talent Example: In 2025, second-round rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson was widely touted as a breakout candidate. The idea was that he would take the role from an aging, plodding Rhamondre Stevenson - or at least the pass work, given that is Henderson’s specialty. But Henderson was unable to fully take either. Why? Pass-blocking. There were 73 backs who got at least 25 pass-blocking snaps. Per Pro Football Focus, TreVeyon Henderson graded out as RB64. Stevenson, on the other hand, was top 10. That saw Stevenson playing on over 140 more pass plays than Henderson, limiting his upside. 

 

 

 

Fantasy Football Breakouts - Scheme

This is an often underrated aspect of breakout identification. Yes, the player is talented. But how do they fit within the offensive system? The issue oftentimes in the NFL, especially with the bad teams, is that changing the coaches does not release the players from multi-year deals. Oftentimes, especially on defense when converting from a base 3-4 to a 4-3, you are going to have guys under contract that don’t fit the scheme. When Bruce Arians took over the Cardinals, he traded Anthony Sherman to the Chiefs because he doesn’t use a fullback - Sherman went on to play 8 years in Kansas City. One scheme’s trash is another scheme’s treasure. 

Not only are there different schemes, but they often use completely different language that needs to be learned. Some offenses use a lot of three-wide receiver sets with an inline tight end, like Liam Coen’s. Some offenses use a fullback, blocking tight ends, and another tight end in a pseudo-WR role, like Mike McDaniel. The schemes can vary drastically, which is why our own Howard Bender breaks down the coaching changes every year as well as the scheme for every NFL team in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. 

Scheme Example: In 2018, Adam Gase was the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. His scheme called for an inline tight end, so Mike Gesicki only ran 23.8% of his routes from the slot and was asked to stay in and block on 17.7% of his pass plays. Gesicki finished as the TE52 in fantasy. Under Brian Flores the following year, Gesicki ran 82% of his routes from a WR spot and only blocked on 2.4% of pass plays. He finished as TE12. The next year they brought in Chan Gailey as OC, who had a history of using “big slot” players with the Chiefs (Tony Gonzalez), Jets (Eric Decker), and Bills (David Nelson). Gesicki finished as TE7.

Fantasy Football Breakouts - Opportunity

Unfortunately for us, it’s not always enough to be a talented player on a team that has a good scheme. You also need to have the opportunity. At the quarterback position, that becomes abundantly obvious - you can have Patrick Mahomes on an Andy Reid team, but if Alex Smith is the quarterback, he doesn’t have the opportunity to succeed. As soon as he did get his chance, he threw 50 touchdown passes.

At other positions, it can be a bit more subtle. First off, the quarterback might not even be able to run a competent offense. That right there can limit opportunities. Or maybe the defense and run game are great, which throttles pass attempts. There is also a reason the fantasy community collectively says that “targets are earned”. Antonio Brown was a talented player on an AFC Champion Steelers team with a Hall of Fame QB Ben Roethlisberger, but with Hines Ward, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, Antwaan Randle El, and Heath Miller also on the team, the opportunity wasn’t there. This is why we do the Target Totem Pole as part of the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide - to help identify where the opportunities could be.

Opportunity Example: CeeDee Lamb was picked in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Dallas Cowboys. A talented player with high expectations. The Cowboys attempted the second most passes of any team that year, so you’d expect big things. But Lamb barely snuck in to relevance as the WR24 in fantasy. Why? First off, they have Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on the team, which limited Lamb to a part-time role (he ran 94% of his routes from the slot. Secondly, Dak Prescott broke his ankle after 5 games, which saw four total different QBs start over the course of the season. The opportunity wasn’t there.

 

 

 

When It All Comes Together

Some folks view the “third year wide receiver breakout” as some mystical thing. Or they believe that that is simply when the player has developed enough to matter. And yes, players do get better. But that excuses all the rookie or second or fourth year breakouts that happen. The reality is that the third year is typically when talent, scheme, and opportunity often come together for a young player. Here’s a classic example.

Chris Godwin was a talented second-round pick out of Penn State, drafted in 2017. He joined a team with Dirk Koetter as head coach and Todd Monken as OC. They had Mike Evans as the split end, DeSean Jackson as the flanker, and Adam Humphries in the slot. There wasn’t much for Chris Godwin to do besides be the rotational wide receiver four. 

In the following year, DeSean Jackson got hurt. Now Chris Godwin is getting his first glimpse of real opportunity. But Adam Humphries is the incumbent slot player, so Godwin ends up playing in the DeSean Jackson role on the outside, with only 27.5% of his routes coming from the slot. That’s not likely the ideal role for Godwin, but he was the “next man up”. He’s a talented player, so he makes it work but finishes outside the top 24 wide receivers.

In 2019, there are major changes. Koetter and Monken are out in favor of new head coach Bruce Arians with OC Byron Leftwich. DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are both gone. They keep Mike Evans at X wide receiver but decide to use Godwin in the slot for three-WR sets (63.4% of his snaps). Godwin, now a full-time player, stays on the field as the flanker for two-WR sets. Despite missing two games, he finishes as the WR2 in all of fantasy football, behind only Michael Thomas and his 185 targets.

Breakouts like 2019 Chris Godwin are why we do what we do. And there’s even some evidence that Chris Godwin could be due for a bounce-back in 2026. It doesn’t always have to be a young up-and-coming player - there are so many moving parts around this league that breakouts can come from places you least expect. The Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide is dedicated to identifying the convergence of talent, scheme, and opportunity in any given year, so if you are committed to becoming a better fantasy gamer, the information contained in it is the first place to start.