What’s up FANation! This season we decided to add a new addition to our content plan with the “Homer Corner” where we breakdown the outlook for our favorite team. My favorite team, if you are unaware, happens to be the miserable Jacksonville Jaguars. Do I enjoy being a fan of this team? Most of the time the answer is no, but we all still love our teams even when they suck… right? 

2020 Summary

Oof. Where do we start? The Jags won their first game of the season and their record sat at a pretty 1-0. It was all downhill from there as they would finish the season with the same number in the wins column as they ended up with a 1-15 record after losing 15 straight games. Not exactly ideal for a fan, but it is what it is. Let’s take a look at the leaders at each position and the stats they produced last season:

QB

Gardner Minshew: 66.1% completion rate, 16 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 2259 passing yards, 153 rushing yards, one touchdown. There was some hype around Minshew following his strong rookie campaign in which he had 21 touchdowns with six interceptions and rushed for 344 yards. A guy with 37 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions in his career you would think would be looked at as an asset, but there are many flaws in his game. The biggest one is his deep ball or lack thereof, but also his inability to perform early in the game (a lot of production for him has been in garbage time), hence why he will no longer be the teams QB. 

RB

James Robinson: 240 carries, 1070 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, 49 receptions, 344 yards, three touchdowns. Robinson was an undrafted free agent, but he carried this team’s backfield. He was amazing in almost every way… except being a horrendous pass blocker. However, is that an area he is progressing in? Maybe…

Chris Thompson: seven carries, 20 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 146 yards, one touchdown. He was used as a change of pace receiving back, but was not a big factor. He is no longer with the team. 

WR

DJ Chark: 93 targets, 53 receptions, 706 yards, five touchdowns. Chark was the team’s number one receiver and the deep ball receiver counted on for big plays. He came into the season with massive hype after catching 73 passes for 1008 yards and eight touchdowns in 2019 and being named to the Pro bowl. He was a fantasy bust in 2020. 

Keelan Cole: 88 targets, 55 receptions, 642 yards, five touchdowns. Cole kind of played as the middleman receiver. He was a nice surprise, having a career year with his most receptions and touchdowns of any season. He is no longer with the team. 

Laviska Shenault Jr: 79 targets, 58 receptions, 600 yards, five touchdowns. The rookie was the short pass specialist and given Minshew’s struggles with the deep ball, Shenault was the beneficiary. 

Chris Conley: 63 targets, 40 receptions, 471 yards, two touchdowns. Conley operated as the team’s number four receiver. As you can see, he was not a major factor. He is no longer with the team. 

Collin Johnson: 31 targets, 18 receptions, 272 yards, two touchdowns. The rookie played a small part for the team in 2020 as the team’s number five receiver. 

TE

Tyler Eifert: 60 targets, 36 receptions, 349 yards, two touchdowns. Eifert finally stayed healthy, but he was a complete non-factor for the team. He is no longer with the team. 

James O’Shaughnessy: 38 targets, 28 receptions, 262 yards. He operated as the second TE and he was also a non-factor for the most part. 

K

Josh Lambo: The fantastic kicker was limited to just four games with various injuries but finished a perfect 5-5 on FG attempts. 

2021 Outlook

Massive overhaul. That’s how you can summarize the Jaguars offseason. Their offense is going to look completely different this season. Let’s go position-by-position for this upcoming season and with what changes were made, while also breaking each player from a fantasy standpoint and what they could provide to your fantasy football team this season. 

QB

Losses: None

Additions: Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Beathard.

They drafted Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick in the draft to be the team’s future (and present) at QB. The Jaguars still have Minshew, but it’s all but set in stone that he will move into a backup role to Lawrence. Lawrence had an incredible three years at Clemson, racking up 10,098 passing yards with a 66.6% completion rate and 90 touchdowns to just 17 interceptions. He also rushed for 943 yards and 18 touchdowns. He won a National Championship (showing he has no issue with the spotlight) and many awards during his time with Clemson. He looked good in his first preseason action, completing six of nine passes for 71 yards with no interceptions. 

Lawrence in Fantasy: Lawrence has been drafted at the QB14 over the last month with an ADP of 119. He has plenty of upside and makes for a rock solid pick here as a QB2 on your team. I don’t think anyone would be shocked if he finishes in the top-12 at the position by the end of the year. 

RB

Losses: Chris Thompson, Ryquell Armstead. 

Additions: Travis Etienne, Carlos Hyde. 

Chris Thompson is no longer with the team after the team chose to not re-sign him in free agency. Armstead missed all of 2020 with Covid and he has since been cut. They drafted Travis Etienne in the first round with the 25th overall pick and signed Carlos Hyde to a contract. Etienne was elite at Clemson, finishing with 4952 rushing yards and 70 touchdowns while also catching 102 passes for 1155 yards and eight touchdowns. 

Etienne in Fantasy: Etienne is being drafted as RB21 over the last month with an ADP of 45. I have a couple shares, but overall I feel like this is a steep price tag. His ceiling is extremely high with his ability to catch passes, but his floor is equally low which is a lot of risk for someone going at pick 45. In bestball it’s one thing, you get his big weeks without having to care about the lows, but in seasonal I can see him being frustrating. 

Robinson in Fantasy: Robinson is being drafted as RB27 over the last month with an ADP of 65. Want a similar write-up to the one Etienne got? It’s practically the same thing. I don’t see him matching his production from last season and at 65 he is a bit pricey. The upside is there, but the floor is low. Another fine target for bestball, but it’s hard to love him for seasonal. 

Hyde in Fantasy: No value, even if an injury were to occur. 

WR

Losses: Keelan Cole, Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook

Additions: Marvin Jones, Tavon Austin, Phillip Dorsett, Laquon Treadwell, Jamal Agnew. 

Cole is obviously the biggest loss here after posting the second best season on the team last season. He signed with the Jets. Conley is another somewhat significant loss; he signed with the Texans. Westbrook hardly played last season after being a key contributor in 2018 and 2019; he signed with the Vikings. Jones is the biggest new face in the WR room, but Austin, Dorsett, Treadwell, and Agnew could all play factors in different ways (not in fantasy though). Josh Hammond could also come into the fold after spending 2020 on the practice squad.   

Chark in Fantasy: Chark is being drafted as the WR34 over the last month with an ADP of 79. Chark has the biggest ceiling of anyone in this group, so it’s no surprise that he is the first WR off the board for this team. He should also benefit from Lawrence being the new QB as Lawrence throws a far better deep ball than Minshew does and as the field-stretcher for this team that is obviously a good thing. He is a fair value pick with upside. I think he’s a great pick in bestball type formats as he will likely have a lot of up-and-down in his game this season. 

Shenault in Fantasy: Shenault is being drafted as the WR40 over the last month with an ADP of 94. He is more of a safer floor type pick than Chark is. He will likely have weekly value as a flex, but I don’t really see him being a league-winning pick by any means, despite the fact that many are in fact calling him a potential league-winning sleeper pick. I see him having a lot of 10-15 point fantasy weeks in PPR leagues, which is fine, but nothing to get too excited about. We will probably see more of these types of plays from Shenault…

Jones in Fantasy: Jones is being drafted as the WR53 over the last month with an ADP of 128. Jones had a great year last year, catching 76 passes for 978 yards and nine touchdowns. It was his third year with nine touchdowns in his last four years. That was the most receptions he has ever had, the most targets, and the second most yards. He had a great first preseason game, catching three passes for 52 yards. Jones could potentially be a sneaky fantasy pick and a steal and there’s not a ton of risk in his price tag. He is growing on me in drafts even with a lot of mouths to feed in this offense. 

Johnson in Fantasy: No current value. Had one catch for zero yards in the first preseason game. It would take an injury for him to become a factor. I would consider him the front-runner to be the team’s #4 wide receiver heading into the year though. 

Austin in Fantasy: No value right now. He has reportedly looked really good in practice though and he did have a nice preseason game, catching four passes for 52 yards and a touchdown. Maybe he can fight his way into some snaps. 

Dorsett in Fantasy: No value. I would not be shocked if he gets cut. 

Treadwell in Fantasy: No value. Caught two passes for 18 yards in the first preseason game. I would also not be shocked if he (also) gets cut. 

Agnew in Fantasy: No value outside of leagues that put a high value on kick and punt returns. He was third in kick return yardage last season and fourth in average return. He didn’t have enough returns on punts to qualify, but his 12.7 average yard return on his 14 returns would have been second best in the league if he did. 

Hammond in Fantasy: It would take a lot of injuries for Hammond to see the field. He did shine in the team’s first preseason game, catching six passes for 55 yards. Meyer spoke highly of both Hammond and Austin after the game. 

TE

Losses: Tyler Eifert

Additions: Chris Manhertz, Luke Farrell 

Eifert was the Jags leading receiver for TEs last season and he is now gone. He did not make much of an impact though and I think we see a very similar situation this season with no Jags TE making any kind of impact in fantasy. I don’t see the point in drafting any of these guys as they will at best be the teams sixth offensive option behind Robinson, Etienne, Chark, Shenault, and Jones. 

Manhertz in Fantasy: No value.

O’Shaughnessy in Fantasy: No value.

Farrell in Fantasy: No value. 

K

Lambo in Fantasy: Lambo is being drafted as one of the last kickers off the board, which I find super interesting and I think he is a great pick. He has been incredible since joining Jacksonville, converting a ridiculous 76-80 field goal attempts with the team, good for a 95% conversion rate. That would be the best EVER, but adding in his stats with the Chargers pushes him down to the THIRD best conversion rate in NFL history. Not too shabby. His problem in fantasy has been the Jags lacking offense, but clearly we expect more from the Jags on offense this season given all their ADPs… yet Lambo is basically going undrafted. Why? If the offense is truly improved and Lambo continues to make FGs at a ridiculous rate, he will be a steal. 

Fantasy Verdict

If you haven’t figured it out, I don’t really love the Jags in fantasy. There is too much uncertainty at just about every position. I think Lawrence is a nice value, but I don’t really want him as my QB1. Etienne and Robinson both have upside, but I don’t love the price. The wide receivers all have a chance of outperforming their ADP, but have just as much chance of being nothing more than FLEX plays or bench fodder. 

Betting

Team bets:

Super Bowl Odds – The Jags are +13000 to win the Super Bowl. Not going to happen, I don’t care what the odds are, you aren’t winning this one. I would love to be wrong on this of course, but I will confidently say there is ZERO chance of this bet hitting. 

AFC South Winner – The Jags are +600 to win the AFC South. Pretty doubtful, but honestly probably the best bang for your buck in this division if you want to take a gamble and believe in Lawrence continuing his winning ways. I don’t see any of these teams as being obvious division winners like the Chiefs or Bucs are. The Jags could sneak this out even if it’s unlikely. 

Win Total – The Jags over/under is 6.5. I like the over here. Is that weird? That means they would need six more wins, but I think it’s possible. This team is vastly improved from where they were last season. Lawrence and Urban Meyer are both proven winners. Do I see them winning 10+ games? No, but can they reach seven wins? I think they can. 

Player Props I like:

James Robinson OVER 670.5 rushing yards – This 39.5 rushing yards per game. He rushed for 1070 yards as a rookie. The Jags drafting Etienne will likely mean Robinson does not match his total from last season, but I don’t really see him not making it to 700+ yards on the ground this year. This is an easy over for me honestly. 

Laviska Shenault OVER 60.5 receptions – Shenault had 58 receptions in 14 games as a rookie, which means he would potentially have three more games to haul in three more passes. He is no longer a rookie either, which usually leads to progression. He had at least five receptions in every game over the last four weeks of the season. If he stays healthy, he is going to beat this total. 

Trevor Lawrence UNDER 13.5 interceptions – I know rookies can struggle with interceptions, but this is a generational quarterback we are talking about. He only had 17 interceptions total across 1138 pass attempts in college across three years of playing. I am not as confident in this one as I am Robinson and Shenault, but I am confident enough to throw a little bit of money on the under here as I think he will be in the 9-12 range and not 14+. 

Go Jags!