Week 15 is here, and with it, we also kick off the fantasy football playoffs in season-long leagues! If you’re fortunate to have secured a Bye week in your respective league(s), then congratulations, you get to focus solely on dominating the NFL DFS Week 15 main slate!

The Bye weeks are all behind us. All 32 NFL teams are in balance with 13 games played, and from here on out, it’s a dog fight all the way to the playoffs. We have a baker’s dozen worth of games for this slate, and I don’t believe my eyes have ever seen so many big favorites for one NFL Sunday. Let’s lock in with the latest NFL DFS Week 15 D/ST Coach with the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel!

NFL DFS Week 15 D/ST Coach for FanDuel & DraftKings Fantasy

For the first time since early in the season, we do not have a 10-or-11-game slate on an NFL Sunday. We have 13 games to choose from, and it’s a vast player pool. Single-entry and three-entry contests probably become a little more difficult because you really have to pick and choose your spots and hope you nail the games that turn into shootouts.

And the unique aspect of this loaded slate is that eight of the 13 games have implied game totals under 43 points as of Wednesday night, and six teams are favored by at least a touchdown. Those teams are particularly pricy, so we need to be mindful of which ones we like for our NFL DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
 

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Top Tier Picks for Week 15

San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $4,700

I’m not going to force the 49ers into my lineups on Sunday, but they also are not a fade either. The matchup is great as they host the Tennessee Titans. But the Titans are coming off one of their best performances of the season, and it was largely due to their ground game, and this is definitely a spot where they could be served a reality check and regress to the mean.

The 49ers' defensive injuries are well-documented with the losses of Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and Mykel Williams. Last week was actually the first time the 49ers D/ST returned double-digit fantasy points all season. So the ceiling doesn’t strike me as all that high, but at the end of the day, they’re playing the Titans, who have been a team we target most weeks with success.

I just don’t love paying this price if there isn’t much of a ceiling. Truthfully, the next team in this article may provide more of the goods we desire for fantasy football. And I really like the Play of the Week, who is a bit discounted on DraftKings as well. The 49ers might be fine for cash games because of the matchup (-12.5 favorites), but we can save money elsewhere and likely get more of a return.

Jacksonville Jaguars – DraftKings: $3,900 | FanDuel: $4,900

This Jaguars team has been on a nice little run since coming off their Bye week. They’re winners of five of their last six games, including four straight where they’ve allowed 11.5 points per game and 233.5 yards per game over the last month.

They have been the beneficiaries of some soft matchups, but that’ll once again be the case on Sunday as they welcome the New York Jets to town. The Jaguars are massive 13.5-point favorites, and the Jets have an implied team total of just 14 points. 

The Jaguars' run defense has been very good this year, and they’ll likely force the Jets to try and beat them through the air. The Jags rank 11th in defensive EPA/Rush (-0.11), 3rd in rush success rate (35.3%), and 6th in yards before contact per attempt (0.91) according to Sam Hoppen. The pass rush isn’t all that good, but you don’t need it to be against the Jets, who may be starting Brady Cook in this game, and he threw two interceptions and had two fumbles after Tyrod Taylor was hurt last week.
 

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Tier Pick for Week 15

Houston Texans – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $4,400

The Houston Texans are not the biggest favorite on the main slate for Sunday. They aren’t even in the game with the lowest implied total. However, we’ve seen that this defense is absolutely terrifying. They are favored by 9.5 points at home against the Arizona Cardinals, while the Cards have an implied total of 16.5 points.

The Texans are certainly playing as if they’re the best defense in the league. I’ve featured them plenty as the Play of the Week, and they’ve certainly paid off for our NFL DFS lineups at times. Over their last four games, they’re allowing just 14.5 points per game and just 270 yards of offense.

The Texans only blitz at a 25.2% clip (18th in the NFL), but they’re 6th in sack rate (7.7%) and 3rd in pressure rate at 37.5%. The Texans lead the NFL in defensive EPA/DB (-0.14), and they play zone coverage on nearly 80% of their defensive snaps. Jacoby Brissett is posting -0.02 EPA/Play against zone coverage with a 1.7% touchdown rate per Sam Hoppen. Brissett can put up numbers, but he can also turn the ball over, and this Houston defense seems to get better and better each week, so I’m locking in the Houston defense once again for Week 15.

Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $3,300 | FanDuel: $4,200

The Chiefs are an outstanding GPP option this weekend. There is so much chalk in the top tier because there are plenty of big favorites. The Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers, who just went to overtime on Monday Night Football to get the win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Chiefs enter this matchup as 5.5-point favorites, and the game has an implied total of 41.5 points. Sure, there are plenty of low totals on the board, and the Chiefs might go under the radar because their fantasy output of late has been weak.

But we need to acknowledge that this is a short week for the Bolts. Moreover, their offensive line is depleted, and Justin Herbert is playing through a hand injury. Herbert’s been sacked 23 times in his last five games, including seven times just this past Monday. The Chiefs enter Week 15 ranking 5th in blitz rate at 30.9% and this is arguably a must-win game for Kansas City if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. I really like the upside in GPPs for this D/ST.
 

 

 

NFL Week 15 DFS D/ST Value Pick

Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $3,000

It’s not pretty, and this defense is by no means good. However, these two teams just met on Thanksgiving a couple of weeks ago, and the Bengals only gave up 14 points to this Baltimore Ravens offense, and they forced five turnovers.

Five turnovers may be difficult to repeat, but this is a defense with an improving pass rush, even if it is a lost year for the Bengals. But Lamar Jackson has not been playing well of late. He’s completed less than 60% of his pass attempts in five straight games with four interceptions and four fumbles (two lost) in that span. Derrick Henry has been carrying the torch, but this main slate is short of value D/ST’s that strike inspiration. At least the Bengals are in a spot where they could play spoiler and impact Baltimore’s playoff chances.

 

 


 

NFL DFS D/ST Fade for Week 15

Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $4,600

The Bears aren’t necessarily a horrendous play, but this is just a classic case of them being priced up because of the matchup against the Cleveland Browns. There are safer options likely priced just above the Bears, and there are probably teams with higher ceilings priced below them.

Even by looking at the output by fantasy points, there isn’t very much to get excited about with Chicago. Per DraftKings scoring, they’ve returned seven or fewer fantasy points in seven straight games, with just three sacks in their last four games. Now, while I’ll concede that they do play better at home, the Browns offense is finding a little rhythm with Shedeur Sanders, who is coming off a phenomenal game in Week 14.

The Bears rank 25th in sack rate (5.5%), and they’re 30th in pressure rate (24.1%). This feels like a spot where, even on a good day, they may only return six or seven fantasy points. So while they are sizable favorites (-7.5) at home, I just think we can find more production in other spots on this slate.

 

 


 

NFL DFS Week 15 D/ST Play of the Week

Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $5,000

We played the Seattle Seahawks as the Play of the Week two weeks ago when they were expensive, and they exploded for 30 fantasy points per DraftKings scoring. The Seahawks currently rank 3rd in defensive EPA/DB (-0.07), and they’ve allowed just a total of NINE points in their last two games to the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings.

Now their last two opponents didn’t have the greatest quarterback situations. And now they play the Indianapolis Colts at home, and sure enough, the Colts have a sketchy quarterback situation entering Week 15. They lost Daniel Jones last week, and Riley Leonard is dealing with a PCL strain. In their desperation, they’ve gone and signed Philip Rivers to their practice squad in an effort to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Regardless of who starts at quarterback on Sunday, this is once again another opportunity for the Seahawks to provide a spike week. In three of their last five games, this D/ST returned 19+ fantasy points, and they have seven takeaways in their last two matchups. The Seahawks are favored by nearly two touchdowns, and the Colts have an implied team total of 14.5 points, which feels somewhat generous by the sportsbooks.