Paying down at D/ST continues to be our saving grace in Cash games. I went heavy on the Houston Texans last week at the ripe price of just $2,600. It wasn’t pretty but they returned value. A late addition to last week’s NFL DFS D/ST Coach, the Jacksonville Jaguars, were a little tough to gauge once the news broke that Justin Herbert would suit up and play. Despite that news, the Jaguars still went out and put up nine points on DraftKings. And we’ll take that if we’re scraping around the bottom of the barrel for a paydown D/ST. This week is no different. We’ll find values for Cash games and see which groups are worth paying up for in GPP’s that have the upside to disrupt the opposing offense, force turnovers, and maybe get us a touchdown. The unique aspect of this particular slate is that we have 12 games on the main slate, but seven of them have projected totals at or below 44 points. So we have some options for Week 4. As always don’t miss out on all our NFL DFS offering each week. We give you the NFL DFS Watch List that is updated throughout the week, NFL DFS Projections, all the other NFL DFS Position Coaches, the NFL DFS Podcast, and more! It’s all at your fingertips to help you dominate the Week 4 main slate. Let’s dig into the trenches for this week’s NFL DFS D/ST picks!
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NFL DFS D/ST Top Plays For Week 4
Green Bay Packers
The easy D/ST to target if you can afford them this week. The New England Patriots will be without Mac Jones in Week 4 and will instead start veteran, journeyman quarterback Brian Hoyer. For his career, Hoyer has just a 3.5% touchdown rate which is not one bit impressive. The Packers defense has been a force the last two weeks. They’ve allowed just 513 total yards of offense and 22 points combined to the Buccaneers and Bears. The floor has been good the last few weeks, but in order to really reach their ceiling they’ll need to get pressure on Hoyer. That’s where we may have a difficult time getting a read. For all the negative reports we heard about the New England offensive line in the preseason, we’ve only seen the Patriots allow five sacks in three games. On the other side the Packers are top ten in pressure rate and tackles for loss. But the Pats haven’t given up a ton of pressure but opposing defenses so far have been a safe bet against New England. This group is fine for Cash games, but we likely want to pay down in GPP’s to be able to allocate salary for the positional studs. The Packers are ten-point favorites and the over/under has been bet down to just 40 points.
This could very well be a blood bath. The matchup is sublime especially with what we saw from the Cowboys on Monday night as they notched over 30 pressures on the Giants in Week 3 and the Eagles were able to sack Carson Wentz nine times last week. Opposing defenses have put up 6, 9, and 18 points in DFS against the Commanders and the Cowboys are easily one of the more difficult units the Commanders have had to face. The Cowboys have 13 sacks through three games and have held all three opposing offenses under 20 points. They’re only favored by a field goal but the over/under is sitting at 41.5 points.
NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Price Plays For Week 4
I’ll preface the Panthers by acknowledging that the mid-range isn’t great. It’s a great week for the D/ST slot in DFS because it seems easy to pay up or pay down. The Panthers are the only mid-price team that is interesting to me. Vegas is saying this game is basically a Pick ‘em and the over/under is currently at 42.5 points. Not to mention we get one of those “West coast teams traveling East” narratives, but the game will still be in the 4:00pm ET window so it’s not a massive advantage for Carolina. But what we’ve seen from Arizona through three games is that the offense will sputter and look unimpressive for three quarters until Kyler Murray starts running around making plays on his own. This isn’t a great play, but one that should be considered as a contrarian option in large-field Tournament contests. They had a very strong showing against New Orleans last week and they’ve allowed just 33 points in their last two games.
NFL DFS D/ST Value Plays For Week 4
I’m going to also touch on the Denver Broncos briefly, but both the Bears and Broncos are very close in pricing on both sites, but both are better values on DraftKings. The Bears have benefitted from a friendly schedule to start the year, but either way they’re doing what we like in DFS. They’re getting pressure on the opposing offense’s quarterback despite just six sacks to show for it. They’ve had success limiting the damage through the air. however, they can be run on. So this could be a big Saquon Barkley game if the Giants do decide to take the ball out of Daniel Jones’ hands (especially since Sterling Shepard is done for the year) and run all over Chicago. But the Cowboys did just pressure the Giants O-line into submission and Roquan Smith is playing at an absurd level right now and could have another big game.
But in pivoting to Denver, we just haven’t seen the Raiders perform like the explosive offense we thought they would be. The Broncos have allowed just 36 points through three games to go with 754 total yards. The defense has been good in reality, but just okay in DFS. If the trend of low-scoring games involving Denver continues, then we could see Denver hit value once again. The Broncos lost 17-16 to Seattle, won 16-9 against the Texans, and won 11-10 in a real barn burner against San Francisco. As you can see, these are ugly and low-scoring games. That’s the trend we want to see continue in Week 4 if we’re targeting this D/ST.
I went to the Texans last week for my Cash game lineup and it paid off. Honestly, the Houston D/ST has been viable in DFS each week so far this year. Through three games they’ve posted 7, 6, and 9 points and they haven’t been over $2,600 on DraftKings. So we’re still getting a good discount for a home matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Now we do need to be cautious. The Bolts come to town, but they do so without Rashawn Slater and Justin Herbert is still dealing with a rib injury. But they’ll likely get Keenan Allen back so don’t be surprised if Herbert relies on shorter passes to get rid of the ball. But remember, when we pay down here we’re only looking for six-to-eight points and the Texans have done that plenty this year with ten sacks and five forced turnovers. The Jaguars took advantage of this matchup last week and put up nine points. If the injury report later in the week isn’t in the Chargers favor, then we can look to Houston once again. This will be a 1:00pm ET game for L.A. and the over/under is around 44 points, but the Texans are five-point underdogs.
New England Patriots
It hasn’t been pretty for the Patriots this year, but the defense can still holds its own. I know the Patriots are trending toward being massive underdogs, but that’s because Mac Jones is going to miss the game. The Packers are a team that have scored 48 points through three games. The Packers can certainly rack up yards, there’s no doubt about it but the Patriots operate with a bend but don’t break mentality. They’ll let you move the ball, just don’t give up the big play for a touchdown. Coming off a week where the Patriots were torched by the Ravens offense, I don’t anticipate the Packers being able to do the same thing. Does that mean I think New England breaks the slate? No, but at this price tag it’s not out of the realm of possibilities where they can return six points in Cash games.
NFL DFS D/ST Fades For Week 4
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
These two teams are pretty good on the defensive side of the ball. And normally, I’m not opposed to paying down for a strong defense and taking the discount, which is what we have in the Ravens this week. But there’s no way we can possibly target either side in this game. And it’s not just that it should be a shootout, but in comparison to the rest of the slate, why take the risk and go here? This game is the only one with a projected total over 50 points on the main slate and with so many games projected for lower scoring, there are plenty of D/ST’s across the whole spectrum that are either better spend-up or spend-down options. The injuries to the Bills defense make it easy to spend a little more money and get to the Cowboys. And the value options adjacent to Baltimore present better floors. For this game, let’s target every other position but leave the D/ST’s out of our player pool.
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