UPDATED: Friday, Sept. 30 at 3pm ET
The NFL DFS community was visibly shook this past week and everyone is praying Week 4 NFL DFS does not turn out the same way. We saw nearly every high-priced player – Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill and Jonathan Taylor just to name a few – come up short on the production and several lineups got blown up because of it. Everyone has a bad week and it just so happened that they all decided to do it in the same week. Some players like D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery and Joe Mixon failed to produce because of injury and there's nothing you can do about that. It happens. We deal with NFL injuries like that all the time and just because you saw someone with a winning GPP lineup that may have included Khalil Herbert or Jamaal Williams, doesn't mean they were the right plays.
That's actually something everyone needs to pay attention to, especially if you aren't building more than five or six lineups. When you see a winning GPP lineup that has a random play like that, always check to see if the site indicates how many lineups that player has in the contest. I know DraftKings shows you that. Max-lineup players don't sit and build their lineups by hand. They use an NFL DFS lineup generator (a.k.a. DFS lineup optimizer) and the algorithm spits out 150 different lineups. Some are good and some are garbage and oftentimes those garbage ones are riddled with players who don't stand a chance of producing unless there's a big injury in front of them. Again, that's fine if you're playing the percentages and just maxing-out your entries, but for those of us who don't do that, stick with the NFL DFS Dart Board. Those players are researched and have a strong chance of performing well for a variety of reasons. Just ask anyone who took my suggestions of Mack Hollins, Romeo Doubs and Isaiah McKenzie this past week.
But enough explaining the difference between max-entering and building winning DFS lineups by hand. Let's get to this week's Watch List.
As we did last week, I'd like to start the NFL DFS Week 4 Watch List with a welcome to all of the new members of the Fantasy Alarm #FAmily. Our family continues to grow and I cannot express how thankful we are to have you join us.. Now it's up to us to help you cash consistently on your NFL DFS action and we are psyched to make that happen. Since you are new to the Watch List, allow me to share some thoughts real quick:
“If you give a man a fish, he’ll eat for a day. If you teach a man to fish, he’ll eat for a lifetime.”
We take this adage to heart when it comes to playing NFL DFS. The Fantasy Alarm Playbook isn’t just about handing you a list of players and a lineup to use each week. It is designed to help you learn to be a better DFS player. It’s about teaching you the process used in selecting which players to scout and, eventually, which ones to use.
Therefore, we will begin each week with the Weekly NFL DFS Watch List which is designed to keep tabs on marquee names, chalk plays and, of course, the weekly bargains who may not see the same coverage and exposure. This piece will be continuously updated throughout the week, based on the most recent news and injuries, which means you may see a name or two removed as we get closer to Sunday kick-off. You may also see a few late-week additions who pique our interest for some reason too, and by the end of the week, this Watch List will eventually become your Playbook. Again, it’s about teaching you the process.
So what exactly did last week's Playbook deliver? As always, we like to check in to ensure we remain on the right path.
Scoring The Playbook Week 3
Again, there's not too much to explain that we don't already know. When your top scorers from the week are Hollins, Herbert and Jamawful Williams, there's not much you can do. We had a strong Dart Board to help with your GPP lineups, but you really needed to hit the right mark in cash games after Jefferson put up fewer than five fantasy points and Montgomery left in the first quarter with an injury.
Here are the highlights:
- Seven of our eight QBs gave you 2x value and five of them gave you 3x
- Two of the seven RBs hit 3x value in Cordarrelle Patterson and Dameon Pierce
- Seven of the WRs provided 2x value
- Five of the eight recommended TEs provided 2x value
- The Dart Board crushed with four of seven hitting 2x value and three exceeding 3x value
- The top lineup from just the Playbook and Dart Board scored 216.36 on DraftKings
All set? Are you ready to start diving into an early look at Week 4 NFL DFS? Let's do it!
Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!