Looking for the best Dabble NFL picks today to close out Week 5? Two Super Bowl contenders meet at SoFi Stadium on Monday Night Football, with the Rams favored by about three and a total of 54.5. Below, we break down our top Dabble NFL picks for this matchup, complete with player projections and the matchup angles behind each play.
Bills vs. Rams: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Los Angeles is coming off a 24-20 comeback win over Philadelphia, while Buffalo is looking to rebound from its first loss, a 29-26 defeat to New England in which DJ Moore left with a shoulder injury. Moore is questionable, and Joshua Palmer is out, which opens the door for Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir. Here's where we're finding the value on Dabble for this one.
Best Dabble NFL Picks for MNF, Week 5
Matthew Stafford NFL Dabble Pick: Higher 37.5 Pass Attempts
Stafford has thrown 55 and 51 passes in his last two games and is averaging 40.5 attempts per game, with 1,189 passing yards that rank fourth in the NFL. This game carries a 54.5-point total, and the Bills' defense ranks 27th in the league in total defense and 25th in scoring defense, allowing 26.8 points per game. With Adams leading Los Angeles in receiving yards and Nacua back in the lineup after nine catches for 125 yards in Week 4, the Rams have every reason to keep throwing against a Buffalo offense that scores 31.8 points per game. The line sits at 37.5, a number he has topped in each of the last two weeks, and a shootout points toward another heavy night.
Keon Coleman NFL Dabble Pick: Higher 36.5 Receiving Yards
Coleman has stepped up when Buffalo has needed him, catching six passes for 116 yards and a touchdown against New England after DJ Moore exited with a shoulder injury, and six passes for 63 yards in Week 2 when Moore left early against Detroit. That is 12 catches for 179 yards and a score on 13 targets in the two games Moore left. Moore is questionable for Monday night with an AC joint injury, and Joshua Palmer is out, which would make Coleman and Khalil Shakir the top targets for Josh Allen in a game with a 54.5-point total. Coleman has been quiet when Moore is healthy, so watch the inactive list, but the opportunity looks strong for him to clear 36.5 yards.
Dabble NFL Player Projections for Bills vs. Rams
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Stafford and Coleman as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Dabble pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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