Looking for the best Chalkboard NFL picks today? The 5-2 Jaguars visit the 4-4 Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night, with Jacksonville a roughly 9.5-point favorite and the total near 40. Below, we break down our top Chalkboard NFL picks for this Week 9 matchup, complete with player projections and the matchup angles behind each play.

Jaguars vs. Ravens: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Baltimore turns to undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano with Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley out, facing a Jaguars defense that ranks first in rush defense DVOA, while Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville bring a red-hot offense into a Ravens defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against WR2. Here's where we're finding the value on Chalkboard for this one.

 

 

 

Best Chalkboard NFL Picks for TNF, Week 9

Trevor Lawrence NFL Chalkboard Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs

Lawrence has thrown seven touchdown passes over his last two games, including three on 14 attempts against Indianapolis, and has 17 on the season, with four games of at least three touchdowns. He gets a Baltimore defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against WR1, 28th against WR2, and 29th against tight ends, and it plays zone coverage 78.6% of the time, which is where Lawrence has thrived. Jacksonville's passing volume is low, third-fewest in the league, and a big lead could mean even fewer throws, but his efficiency has been elite and Baltimore is starting a rookie quarterback who may give the Jaguars short fields. Clearing 1.5 touchdown passes looks like a strong play.

Derrick Henry NFL Chalkboard Pick: Lower 18.5 Rushing Attempts

Henry has 158 carries through eight games, the most in the NFL, but he has carried 17, 17, and 11 times in the last three games, all Ravens losses, and he is averaging just 4.0 yards per carry. Jacksonville ranks first in rush defense DVOA and allows a league-best 77.4 rushing yards per game, and the Jaguars are roughly 9.5-point favorites against a Baltimore offense that has averaged 11 points over its last three games. With rookie Joe Fagnano making his first start, the Ravens will try to run early, but falling behind would cut into Henry's carries. Under 18.5 rushing attempts looks like the right side.

Chalkboard NFL Player Projections for Jaguars vs. Ravens

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Lawrence and Henry as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Chalkboard pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

How to Play These Chalkboard NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Claim Your Welcome Bonus

Ready to build a lineup around these picks? Sign up for Chalkboard with promo code ALARM and claim the new-user welcome offer to get started. Just create an account, enter the code during registration, and follow the steps to activate your bonus. Check out Fantasy Alarm's Chalkboard promo code page for the latest offer details and even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Thursday night matchup that's already stacked with value.