Looking for the best Chalkboard NFL picks today? Week 8's Sunday slate features a Jaguars lead back facing the league's worst run defense by EPA and a Jets quarterback drawing one of the softest pass defenses against touchdowns. Below, we break down our top Chalkboard NFL picks for this Week 8 slate, complete with player projections and the matchup angles behind each play.
Colts vs. Jaguars and Raiders vs. Jets: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Bhayshul Tuten and the Jaguars host an Indianapolis defense that ranks last in EPA per rush and 29th in rush defense DVOA and has traded away DeForest Buckner, while Geno Smith and the Jets welcome a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA and 30th in passing touchdowns allowed. Both matchups feature offenses with clear routes to production. Here's where we're finding the value on Chalkboard for this slate.
Best Chalkboard NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 8
Bhayshul Tuten NFL Chalkboard Pick: Higher 66.5 Rushing Yards
Tuten is averaging 64.7 rushing yards per game on 94 carries through six games, with 73, 73, and 72-yard efforts in Weeks 3 through 5, and he has played at least 58% of the snaps in each of the last three weeks. He gets a Colts defense that ranks last in the league in EPA per rush and 29th in rush defense DVOA and is without DeForest Buckner following a trade, in a game where the Jaguars are favored by 7.5 to 10 points coming off a bye. Rodriguez has taken a bigger share of work in spots, including 11 carries against Houston, and Tuten's 4.1 yards per carry is modest, but the volume and the matchup both point in the right direction. Clearing 66.5 rushing yards looks like a solid play.
Geno Smith NFL Chalkboard Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs
Smith threw three touchdown passes in last week's 28-25 loss to Miami, going 23 of 30 for 287 yards, and he has 10 touchdown passes against two interceptions through seven games. He has only two multi-touchdown games this season, but he draws a Raiders defense that ranks 30th in passing touchdowns allowed, 27th in EPA per pass allowed, and 25th in pass defense DVOA, including 27th against WR1 and 29th against WR2. Rookie Omar Cooper Jr. has given him a deep threat, catching passes for 218 yards over the last two weeks, and Smith has thrown 60 passes for 539 yards and four touchdowns since Cooper's return. With the game a virtual pick'em and a total of 45.5, clearing 1.5 touchdown passes looks like a fair play.
Chalkboard NFL Player Projections for Week 8 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Tuten and Smith as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Chalkboard pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
How to Play These Chalkboard NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Claim Your Welcome Bonus
Ready to build a lineup around these picks? Sign up for Chalkboard with promo code ALARM and claim the new-user welcome offer to get started. Just create an account, enter the code during registration, and follow the steps to activate your bonus. Check out Fantasy Alarm's Chalkboard promo code page for the latest offer details and even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Week 8 Sunday slate that's already stacked with value.