2017 NFL Target Analysis: Week 12

Target Leaders

Welcome to the 2017 season, Julio Jones. Jones led all receivers in just about every category in Week 12 including targets. He saw 15 passes thrown his way and he secured 12 of them for 253 yards. Jones vaulted himself all the way to ninth in the league in targets -- the first time he’s been in the top-10 all season long. If you believe in the riding hot narrative, this is a good time for Jones to get scorching for fantasy owners as most leagues have one more week until their playoffs begin.

An interesting name that has crept onto our list after a big target week in Week 12 is Zay Jones. Jones was the last name that made the cut line for this week, but that’s because he saw 10 targets, which brought his season total to 61. That’s not something I realized, that he had that many targets, but Jones could be a sneaky pickup to round out the rest of your receiving corps heading into the postseason. Let’s not forget, these 10 targets were thrown by Tyrod Taylor and Taylor is the Bills quarterback going forward for the remainder of the year. If Jones continues to see this sort of volume, he could be an interesting WR3 to own.

It’s safe to say Keenan Allen is all the way back, right? Allen looks as good as ever as he responded to his 13 target Week 11 by upping that by one to 14 for Week 12. He’s soared through the ranks and now sits tied for fifth in the entire NFL in targets. The Chargers are rolling on both sides of the ball right now, but offensively the ball is primarily moving through the air. If that trend continues, there is no reason to think Allen won’t keep up WR1-esque production for the remainder of the year. I’m willing to call Allen a WR1 ROS.

It’s always interesting to see how players benefit from other players missing games, and one player that stood out like a sore thumb in Week 12 was Cooper Kupp. With Robert Woods sidelined, Kupp saw 11 targets which ranked eighth in the entire league for the week. Woods is scheduled to miss the Rams next game as well, so there’s no reason to think Kupp can’t repeat that output again. Jared Goff locks eyes with Kupp often when Woods is healthy, so that lovefest only gets a boost going forward. Kupp, especially in PPR formats, is as safe as they come as a WR2 with Woods sidelined.

Target Percentage

With Dez Bryant dipping below 30-percent, we once again sit at just two players over the elite marker. Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins are locked into monster shares of their respective offenses and they’re not dropping below 30. Book it.

It’s interesting to me about all the ranting and raving we did about Bryant that his production has actually dropped off the table with Ezekiel Elliott gone. With five targets last week, he saw just 18-percent of his team’s throws in Week 12. That’s unacceptable from a player of his caliber, especially when we note he has to step up in Zeke’s absence or the Cowboys offense will spiral into a deep dark hole they can’t get out of.

Julio Jones saw nearly 48-percent of his teams targets in Week 12. He went for over 200 yards and caught two touchdowns, so it’s safe to say he balled out of his mind and maybe 48-percent was a little too low. Jones now sits at a 27.90-percent target rate and could potentially reach 30 with a couple more big weeks or consistent target domination, which is obviously a possibility because of the elite talent he is.

Red Zone Targets

There is no doubt Jimmy Graham is back to where he was when he was playing with Drew Brees. Part of the reason is because he’s healthy and the other part is the Seahawks have finally come to realize maybe utilizing their 6’7” tight end a little more is beneficial. It also helps the league leader in RZ targets that the Seahawks can’t run the ball to save their lives. They seemingly elect to pass the ball every chance they get in the red zone because none of their running backs can get the job done.

It’s clear to me, even as Brett Hundley improves, that Davante Adams is the man in Green Bay and Jordy Nelson is an afterthought. That’s especially the case in the red zone as Adams is up to 19 red zone targets to Nelson’s 11. They were tied 4 weeks ago. Adams is someone you want in your lineups down the stretch of your fantasy seasons and DFS lineups going forward because anytime Green Bay is inside the 20, they’re drawing up ways to get Adams the ball.

Something worth noting about Jarvis Landry’s red zone targets is that 9-of-13 have come inside the 10-yard line. What does that mean? Miami wants Landry to SCORE! Why this is intriguing to me is because anytime they’re seemingly in the RZ, they’re looking Landry’s way. That hurts players like Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker’s fantasy value, especially if they’re losing looks to Landry.

Drops

Insert paragraph here about how Amari Cooper leads the league in drops. The good thing is he’s only dropped two passes over a five week span. The alarming thing is the amount of drops he had prior to the this recent stretch.

Evan Engram has really disappointed of late and it’s shown up in the box score as he’s now just one drop behind Cooper for the league lead. The Giants lead the NFL in drops and here’s the primary reason why. I’m not discrediting how good he’s been, but maybe if he could have held onto a few more of his nine drops Eli Manning would still have his job.

I’m now 2-for-2 in predicting the weekly leader in targets, so I’m basically psychic. I gave you Dez Bryant for Week 11 and Julio Jones for Week 12. Check and check. This week I’m going with Davante Adams against the Bucs last ranked secondary. I mentioned above how much Hundley loves Adams and I don’t think it stops here.