Fantasy baseball pitching matchups: is there a more important yet more unpredictable aspect of winning in your daily fantasy lineups? 

That's exactly why Fantasy Alarm is proud to introduce Fantasy Baseball Daily Pitching Matchup Rating Grid: a game-changing tool to arm you with the edge you need to destroy the competition. 

 

 

 

What is the MLB Pitching Matchup Grid? It is a simple yet powerful go-to tool for evaluating starting pitchers each day of the season. 

We will not just give the starters for the day; instead, we will take a deep dive into various important metrics such as opposing team batting statistics, pitcher ERA, strikeout rates, park factors, and weather conditions in order to deliver a thorough rating for every matchup. 

In the ever-changing world of fantasy baseball starting pitchers, there is daily movement with rising aces ascending the 2025 list and aging stars taking on new challenges. 

In fact, it becomes a critical component of DFS lineup selection, spotting sleepers, or steering clear of potential disasters. 

The colors in the rating scale will signify the matchups in the following way: 

  • GREEN - Elite Arms that will face more conducive conditions and thus possess high upside.
  • YELLOW - Slightly riskier plays, but they could have the upside of getting the win.
  • ORANGE - Plays that should be approached with caution.
  • RED - Those facing difficult matchups or in risky environments.

 

Updated: 7/9/2025

PitcherTeamMatchupKey Stats
Kris BubicKansas City RoyalsPittsburgh PiratesAt home this year, Bubic has a 2.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 19.4 K-BB%, and he has the good fortune of drawing a Pirates squad that has not only struggled against lefties all year, but also has a 24.5 K% and .281 wOBA over the last two weeks.
Lucas GiolitoBoston Red SoxColorado RockiesGiolito is on an impressive run right now, posting a 0.83 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 24.8 K% over his last five starts. He'll look to continue this dominant run against a Colorado team that has punched out 24.6% of the time with a .66 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Andrew AbbottCincinnati RedsMiami MarlinsPrior to his last outing, Abbott had allowed just 3 ER across 26.2 IP and he's been one of the best surprises of the 2025 season. The Marlins have been solid against righties, but dating back to June 1, they have posted a .703 OPS, .307 wOBA, and 94 wRC+ against LHP.
Jesus LuzardoPhiladelphia PhilliesSan Francisco GiantsLuzado has a strong 28.0 K% and 3.29 FIP on the road this season, though he has a 4.38 ERA and .400 BABIP over his last 24.2 IP. I love his 2.35 FIP and 11.68 K/9 during that stretch, but it's been a bit inconsistent on the results front. Good spot today, as the Giants have a 23.5 K% and .297 wOBA over the last two weeks, and they have the fifth-highest K% on the year against southpaws.
Mackenzie GoreWashington NationalsSt. Louis CardinalsThe Nats gave Gore an extra day of rest before today's start, and while he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine, I can't help but call out that he has 11 walks over his last 17 IP. St. Louis' bats have been quiet over the last two weeks, registering a .216 average and .280 wOBA, and Gore has a strong 30.0 K% on the road this season.
Dylan CeaseSan Diego PadresArizona DiamondbacksWhen Cease pitches at home, we pay attention, as he has a 2.76 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 29.4 K% when pitching in home park. Arizona has some impressive numbers for the season against RHP, but they've been quiet over the last two weeks as an offense, striking out 24.1% of the time with a .309 wOBA and .211 AVG.
Eric LauerToronto Blue JaysChicago White SoxSince joining the Toronto rotation full time in Mid-June, Lauer has a 3.24 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 26.0 K% and 5.8 BB%. The White Sox do have the second-lowest strikeout in baseball over the last two weeks at 17.8%, for the entire 2025 season, only the Angels and Pirates have struck out more against southpaws than the White Sox.
Adrian HouserChicago White SoxToronto Blue JaysHouser has logged a quality start in all but one outing this year, and he's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any outing. Not many strikeouts to be had with Houser (6.57 K/9), but he draws a tougher matchup today against a Toronto team that doesn't strikeout whatsoever, and they also have a .341 wOBA and 119 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
David PetersonNew York MetsBaltimore OriolesPeterson has been better at home (2.11 ERA) than on the road (4.44), but that road ERA seems a bit inflated due to allowing 10 ER over his last 8.2 IP. The Orioles have a 25.1 K% and .100 ISO against lefties on the year, but Peterson needs to control the walks (4.84 BB/9 over last 22.1 IP).
Slade CecconiCleveland GuardiansHouston AstrosThe Astros boast the fourth-best OPS (.826) and wOBA (.356) over the last two weeks, but Cecconi has been great on the road this year (2.57 ERA & 1.18 WHIP), and his ability to handle RHH (.285 wOBA) should benefit him against a RH-heavy Houston lineup.
Brandon WalterHouston AstrosCleveland GuardiansWalter has had a couple of rough starts lately but there's been more good than bad from Walter on the season. He gets a great matchup against a Cleveland team that hasn't hit lefties all year, and they really haven't hit anyone over the last two weeks (.191 AVG, .588 OPS, .258 wOBA).
Tyler GlasnowLos Angeles DodgersMilwaukee BrewersGlasnow is making his first start since April 27, and across three rehab outings, Glasnow had an 8.31 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, and 12:5 K/BB ratio across 8.2 IP. I can't imagine he has an overly lengthy leash, though he did work up to 78 pitches in his last rehab appearance. If able, I'm waiting one start before running Glasnow out there in seasonal leagues.
Kumar RockerTexas RangersLos Angeles AngelsRocker has a 2.49 ERA over his last four starts, and while he's taken advantage of some favorable matchups during that stretch, he's finally showing those flashes we've been dying to see. The Angels are about as close to a two-outcome team as you can get (HR or K), and they have a 24.5 K% over the last two weeks.
Zack LittellTampa Bay RaysDetroit TigersLittell has a 2.39 HR/9 on the road this year, and a 2.11 HR/9 against LHH. This Detroit offense doesn't lack lefty power, and as a team, Detroit boasts the fourth-best ISO (.216) and a .338 wOBA over the last two weeks. Littell has tricked me before, but this could turn ugly.
Brandon PfaadtArizona DiamondbacksSan Diego PadresPfaadt has really struggled on the road this year, posting a 6.60 ERA,6.44 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, and 2.60 HR/9. The Padres have a .280 wOBA and .095 ISO over the last two weeks, and Pfaadt has been better of late, posting a 4.85 ERA and 29:6 K/BB ratio over his last 5 starts (26 IP).
Reese OlsonDetroit TigersTampa Bay RaysOlson has been dominant at home this year, posting a 2.01 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 16.1 K-BB%. His excellence against LHH this season (.261 wOBA) should benefit him against a Tampa Bay team that loves to load the lineup with lefties when facing a RHP.
Andre PallanteSt. Louis CardinalsWashington NationalsSince allowing 7 ER to the Royals on June 3, Pallante has posted a 2.22 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, and 0.32 HR/9 over his last five starts. He'll need to remain effective against LHH, as Washington has plenty of those, and as a team, the Nats are hitting .280 (3rd-best) over the last two weeks, but they also have the league's lowest ISO (.086) during that stretch.
Cam SchlittlerNew York YankeesSeattle MarinersSchlittler will make his MLB debut on Wednesday after posting an impressive 2.82 ERA and 31.9 K% across the Double-A and Triple-A levels this season. Needs to limit the walks, but a strong ground ball rate for the entirety of his minor league career should help navigate Yankee Stadium.
Bailey FalterPittsburgh PiratesKansas City RoyalsFalter hasn't been great away from home this year, as seen by his 1.80 HR/9 and 5.38 FIP, but he's pitching to a slightly better 4.30 ERA over his last 23 IP. However, he does have a 2.35 HR/9 and 6.39 FIP during that stretch, but the Royals are hitting just .235 with a .149 ISO and .300 wOBA over the last two weeks.
Logan EvansSeattle MarinersNew York YankeesEvans' 2.96 ERA is pretty good, but after that, there isn't much to be said. His 17.4 K% and 4.62 FIP are average at best, and his 1.64 HR/9 is a bit problematic heading to Yankee Stadium taking on a Yankees squad that has the second-best ISO (.226) over the last two weeks.
Sandy AlcantaraMiami MarlinsCincinnati RedsWas Alcantara's couple of start run just fool's gold? He's allowed 12 ER over his last 12 IP, though it could be worse than a 3.58 FIP and 8:1 K/BB ratio. Good matchup for the Miami righty today, however, as Cincy has a 26.0 K%, .596 OPS, and 62 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
David FestaMinnesota TwinsChicago CubsFesta has some reverse splits on the season, and other than his start against Detroit, he hasn't been overly sharp his last few times out. The Cubs have the third-highest OPS and wOBA over the last two weeks, and for the entire 2025 season, only the Diamondbacks and Yankees have a higher ISO against RHP than the Cubs.
Cade HortonChicago CubsMinnesota TwinsHorton is coming off the best start of his young career against a hapless Cleveland offense, but he used his changeup in that start more than any previous outing. His changeup has been excellent on the season (27.3 SwStr%, .164 wOBA), so I'd expect increased usage with that pitch again as he takes on a Minnesota team that has a 23.2 K% and .290 wOBA over the last two weeks.
Justin VerlanderSan Francisco GiantsPhiladelphia PhilliesVerlander is still searching for his first win as a San Francisco Giant, and despite a 6.27 ERA since returning from injury, he's striking out over one batter per inning, and he has a 2.87 FIP. He has a sub-4.00 FIP and 20.9 K% at home on the year.
Jose QuintanaMilwaukee BrewersLos Angeles DodgersDon't look, but Quintana's home ERA is pushing six, and he has a sub-2.00 ERA when pitching on the road. Today's game against the Dodgers is at home, putting him on the wrong side of his home/road splits, and over his last four starts (21.1 IP), he's served up a 5.06 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .282 BAA, and 4.2 K-BB%.
Kyle HendricksLos Angeles AngelsTexas RangersSome wind blowing out tonight, but Hendricks finds himself on the better side of his home/road splits against a Texas team that has been slightly better than league average over the last two weeks. They have struggled against RHP for the majority of the season, but he needs to limit the damage from the RH side tonight (.306/.335/.543 vs. RHP in 2025).
Tomoyuki SuganoBaltimore OriolesNew York MetsSugano has a 7.06 ERA and 2.45 HR/9 dating back to the beginning of June, and he's completed just five innings just once in his last five starts. The Mets have the ninth-highest ISO, and seventh-highest wOBA over the last two weeks.
Mitch SpenceAthleticsAtlanta BravesSpence has a respectable 3.64 ERA (4.97 FIP) and 1.28 WHIP since joining the rotation (6 GS), but beyond that, I'm not loving his 1.82 HR/9, 12.9 K-BB%, and .548 SLG against LHH. The Atlanta offense has struggled of late, and may be without Ronald Acuna this evening, which would make things a bit more appealing for Spence.
Bryce ElderAtlanta BravesAthleticsElder has a 12.64 ERA and 4.02 HR/9 over his last 15.2 IP, and now he has to face an Athletics team that despite a 26.5 K%, has an impressive .202 ISO over the last two weeks. A little bit of wind blowing out at Sutter Health Park tonight.
Antonio SenzatelaColorado RockiesBoston Red SoxThis Boston offense is humming right now, and even away from home, Senzatela has a 6.32 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, and -1.1 K-BB%.