Fantasy baseball pitching matchups: is there a more important yet more unpredictable aspect of winning in your daily fantasy lineups? 

That's exactly why Fantasy Alarm is proud to introduce Fantasy Baseball Daily Pitching Matchup Rating Grid: a game-changing tool to arm you with the edge you need to destroy the competition. 

 

 

 

What is the MLB Pitching Matchup Grid? It is a simple yet powerful go-to tool for evaluating starting pitchers each day of the season. 

We will not just give the starters for the day; instead, we will take a deep dive into various important metrics such as opposing team batting statistics, pitcher ERA, strikeout rates, park factors, and weather conditions in order to deliver a thorough rating for every matchup. 

In the ever-changing world of fantasy baseball starting pitchers, there is daily movement with rising aces ascending the 2025 list and aging stars taking on new challenges. 

In fact, it becomes a critical component of DFS lineup selection, spotting sleepers, or steering clear of potential disasters. 

The colors in the rating scale will signify the matchups in the following way: 

  • GREEN - Elite Arms that will face more conducive conditions and thus possess high upside.
  • YELLOW - Slightly riskier plays, but they could have the upside of getting the win.
  • ORANGE - Plays that should be approached with caution.
  • RED - Those facing difficult matchups or in risky environments.

Updated: 4/29/2025

PitcherTeamMatchupKey Stats
Zack WheelerPhiladelphia PhilliesWashington NationalsStrong winds blowing out today in Philly, but Wheeler has been phenomenal at home this season, including a 46.0 K%! The Nats can be pesky against RHP, but don't overthink it.
Garrett CrochetBoston Red SoxToronto Blue JaysToronto has been tough on LHP this season, ranking top three in OBP, wOBA, and wRC+. Despite allowing four earned runs in his last start, Crochet still holds a 1.95 ERA on the season with an impressive 2.25 FIP. He allowed four runs (one earned) against Toronto earlier this season, but I expect better numbers today, as he's on the better side of his home/road splits (1.33 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 26.4 K-BB% on the road in 2025).
Nick PivettaSan Diego PadresSan Francisco GiantsPivetta has been excellent to begin the year, registering four QS in five attempts, and in three home starts on the year, he has a 0.45 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, and 20:2 K/BB ratio. The Giants only have a 16.7 K% over the last seven days, and are about league average versus RHP in that department for the season.
Logan WebbSan Francisco GiantsSan Diego PadresWe prefer Logan Webb at home, but despite San Diego being pretty good against RHP for the better part of the 2025 season, the Padres' bats have cooled off. In terms of wOBA and wRC+, they have been the league's worst offense over the last seven days. Some good BvP data against him in this lineup, but pitcher friendly park and the game total sits at just 6.5!
Freddy PeraltaMilwaukee BrewersChicago White SoxHas struggled with walks on the road this year, but soft matchup on a colder night in Chicago.
Bryce MillerSeattle MarinersLos Angeles AngelsThe Angels are striking out at an insane 33.7 percent clip over the last seven days, with just a .168 average and 39 wRC+. They have the second-highest strikeout rate against RHP for the entire season thus far, and as long as he can harness his command, his output this evening could be quite solid.
Mackenzie GoreWashington NationalsPhiladelphia PhilliesGore racked up 13 strikeouts over six shutout innings when he faced Philly earlier this year, and for the entire season, the Phils have the 10th-highest K rate against LHP (25.1%). Gore's numbers are more impressive at home than on the road, but hard to ignore/fade his elite strikeout upside.
Jacob deGromTexas RangersAthleticsDon't love the matchup, as the Athletics have a bunch of LHH who can give deGrom fits (.625 SLG vs. LHH for deGrom in 2025), but the veteran righty has been excellent at home this year (2.55 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), and he's doing a great job of getting swings out of the zoen (34.6 O-Swing%).
Carlos RodonNew York YankeesBaltimore OriolesThe Baltimore offense is struggling, they've been quite poor against LHP all season, and Rodon has a 2.37 ERA on the road this season. Are the stars aligning for a strong Rodon outing today?
Shota ImanagaChicago CubsPittsburgh PiratesSo long as the rain holds off, this is a great spot for Imanaga. The Pirates have a .273 wOBA, 68 wRC+, and the sixth-highest strikeout rate against LHP this season (26.6 K%). Again, need the rain to hold off to avoid a shortened outing from the Chicago southpaw.
Taj BradleyTampa Bay RaysKansas City RoyalsSlight wind blowing in, but it's still Steinbrenner Field, A bad start at home against the Yankees have inflated his numbers a bit, but this is a soft matchup for Bradley, as the Royals have the second-lowest ISO (.106) ad wRC+ (74) vs. RHP this season. Possible late start due to rain.
Brady SingerCincinnati RedsSt. Louis CardinalsKeep an eye on the weather, as there appears to be some rain leading up to and at various points during this contest. Don't love Singer's low ground ball rate on the year with tonight's game being at Great American Ball Park, but he's been solid at home, and a new cutter has helped him a bit with LHH. The Cardinals are about league average offensively over the last seven days, but they have been great at avoiding strikeouts (17.3 K%).
Andrew HeaneyPittsburgh PiratesChicago CubsHeaney has been great at home this year, posting a 0.63 ERA and 14:3 K/BB ratio across 14.1 IP, but the Cubs have been an elite offense against LHP, and they have a .428 SLG over the last seven days. Some weather in the area, too, so potential for an in-game delay.
Reese OlsonDetroit TigersHouston AstrosThe Astros are rather vulnerable to RHP, but Olson has really struggled on the road this year, serving up four ER in each of those two starts while failing to complete five innings in both outings. Increased usage of a sinker has helped maintain a strong ground ball rate, but I think we could see a little bump in his strikeout rate moving forward, as he's used his changeup more in the last three starts, leading to a 13.4 SwStr% over his last three.
Eduardo RodriguezArizona DiamondbacksNew York MetsTwo good road matchups this year have inflated his strikeout numbers a bit, but this isn't the best matchup for the veteran lefty. The Mets have a solid .402 SLG and 113 wRC+ versus LHP this season, and as a team, they are slashing .300/.378/.442 over the last seven days. Strong winds blowing out, and his current ground ball rate of 39.2 percent would be his second-lowest in a season over the last half-decade.
David PetersonNew York MetsArizona DiamondbacksStrong winds blowing out tonight in New York, but Peterson has a 55.7 GB% on the year, so hopefully that strong ground ball rate (combined with a lower walk rate) will keep him out of trouble. Arizona has the league's lowest strikeout rate against lefties at just 14.2%, but they also only have a .105 ISO and .298 wOBA.
Tanner BibeeCleveland GuardiansMinnesota TwinsBibee has struggled to begin 2025, highlighted by his strikeout and walk rates trending in the wrong direction! From an ERA perspective, he's been much, much better at home (1.69 ERA), and he holds the BvP advantage today over this Minnesota lineup. Need to avoid an in-game rain delay, and hopefully the wind stays blowing across the field, and doesn't shift outwards.
Michael LorenzenKansas City RoyalsTampa Bay RaysSlight winds blowing in today at Steinbrenner Field, but the Rays have been very strong in their home park this year. Lorenzen's stuff hasn't traveled well this year (5.74 ERA, 14:7 K/BB ratio on the road), so there is some risk.
Ryan GustoHouston AstrosDetroit TigersGusto has a 3.68 ERA when working as a starter this year, along with a solid 14:2 K/BB ratio across 14.2 IP. The Tigers' bats have cooled off a bit against RHP as the year has progressed, and Gusto's healthy 14.2 SwStr% gives him a solid strikeout floor on any given night. Like him as a streaming option at home tonight (2.78 ERA at home this year).
Bowden FrancisToronto Blue JaysBoston Red SoxFar better at home than on the road this season, but needs to keep the ball in the park and avoid damage from Boston's LHH, as the Toronto righty has served up a .545 SLG and .363 wOBA to LHH this year. Not the easiest matchup with Boston being pretty locked in at the plate over the last week (.361 wOBA, 132 wRC+).
Sandy AlcantaraMiami MarlinsLos Angeles DodgersAlcantara is doing a great job of inducing ground balls (59.2 GB%), but that's about the best thing that can be said for him. He's walking too many batters, not missing enough at bats, and he has a 6.56 ERA (4.82 FIP) to begin the year. Tread carefully with Alcantara today, because there are a lot of strong numbers historically in this lineup against him.
Chris PaddackMinnesota TwinsCleveland GuardiansHis 2.01 HR/9 and 6.45 ERA (5.93 FIP) are far from encouraging, not to mention that 12.5 BB%. The Guardians have only a .077 ISO and 68 wRC+ over the last week, so while there's some streamer appeal, there is some risk, of course.
AJ Smith-ShawverAtlanta BravesColorado RockiesYou can exploit this Colorado lineup, even at Coors Field, but Smith-Shawver's 4.61 ERA and 35.0 GB% doesn't inspire a ton of confidence in the best park for hitters across Major League Baseball.
Jack KochanowiczLos Angeles AngelsSeattle MarinersSeattle's offense has the league's best wRC+ over the last seven days, while slashing an impressive .284/.391/.476. Kockanowicz has a 7.04 ERA on the season, with just 13 strikeouts over 26.1 IP.
Miles MikolasSt. Louis CardinalsCincinnati RedsSome rain in the forecast, and Mikolas has just one start this season with more than four strikeouts. Limited upside, and has to go to Great American Ball Park today. Not for me.
Kyle GibsonBaltimore OriolesNew York YankeesThere's certainly strikeout upside against the Yankees, but there are likely better spots to go than with Gibson making his season debut against the Yankees at Camden Yards with relatively strong winds blowing out on a warm night.
German MarquezColorado RockiesAtlanta BravesSome rain in the forecast, but winds will be blowing out today at Coors, which doesn't bode well for Marquez's 38.0 GB%, a would-be career low for the veteran righty.
Tyler GilbertChicago White SoxMilwaukee BrewersOpener.
Jacob LopezAthleticsTexas RangersOpener.
Matt SauerLos Angeles DodgersMiami MarlinsSubject to change whether or not Sauer starts, but despite a soft matchup, not particularly interested, and likely works as an opener of sorts.