Wednesday was exactly the bounce-back night we needed. Tyrese Haliburton handed out 12 assists to go with 23 points in his first game back from a torn Achilles, leading Indiana to a 123-120 win over New Orleans. Trae Young cleared his number with room to spare, finishing with 20 points and 13 assists as Washington beat Milwaukee 128-116. That's a 2-0 night, and our Underdog NBA picks are back to 2-2 on the season.
Thursday's slate is a two-game ESPN doubleheader, and our Underdog NBA picks take one player from each matchup. Tyrese Maxey and the 76ers host Cleveland at 7 p.m. ET, and Isaiah Hartenstein and the Thunder welcome Denver at 9:30 p.m. ET. We're going Higher on Maxey at 22.5 points and Lower on Hartenstein at 8.5 rebounds. Check Fantasy Alarm's NBA DFS Projections before you lock them in.
Underdog NBA Picks: Thursday, 10/22; NBA DFS Projections
A two-game slate means fewer Underdog lines to choose from, so every pick has to count. Fantasy Alarm's NBA DFS Projections give you a number for every player in Cavaliers-76ers and Nuggets-Thunder, so you can quickly find the lines that sit below a player's realistic output and skip the ones that don't.
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Tyrese Maxey NBA Underdog Pick: Higher 22.5 Points
Philadelphia added LeBron James and Jaylen Brown this offseason, but opening night made it clear that Maxey is still the first option. He scored a team-high 28 points in Tuesday's 106-100 win at Madison Square Garden, going 9-of-19 from the field and 8-of-9 at the line in 39 minutes. His 19 shot attempts led the team, ahead of Joel Embiid at 15, Brown at 14 and James at 13. That's the kind of shot share we need to see from him.
This line also sits well below what Maxey produced last season. He averaged 28.3 points across 70 games in 2025-26 and scored 23 or more in 52 of them. He kept it going in the playoffs, scoring 25 or more in five of seven first-round games against Boston.
Cleveland swept the season series last year, but Maxey still scored 27 and 22 points in two of the three meetings he played. The Cavaliers are opening their season Thursday with a thin frontcourt. Jarrett Allen is questionable with a knee issue, and Nae'Qwan Tomlin and Khalifa Diop are both out, which means fewer rim protectors waiting for Maxey when he attacks the paint.
The 76ers are at home for their opener with a total around 235.5, and Maxey is getting to the line and leading the team in attempts. Twenty-three points is a reasonable ask for a player who averaged 28 last season. Maxey at Higher 22.5 points leads off our card.
Isaiah Hartenstein NBA Underdog Pick: Lower 8.5 Rebounds
Hartenstein's workload is the reason we're going Lower. He started Tuesday's 116-104 win in San Antonio but played just 17 minutes, finishing with four points and three rebounds after picking up five fouls. Rookie Aday Mara played almost 12 minutes behind him and scored seven points on 3-of-4 shooting in his NBA debut, and he looked like a player who is going to keep earning minutes. Every foul Hartenstein picks up now opens the door for Mara.
The rebounding was spread around the Thunder roster, too. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams each grabbed seven boards, Alex Caruso added six, and Oklahoma City finished with 47 rebounds as a team. This group doesn't need Hartenstein to clean the glass by himself.
Yes, he averaged 9.4 rebounds last season, but that came in 24.2 minutes per game, and he still finished with eight or fewer in 24 of his 47 appearances. His average dropped to 8.3 rebounds in the playoffs, and he grabbed five and eight rebounds in his two games against Denver last season.
Then there's Nikola Jokic, who averaged 12.7 rebounds in three games against the Thunder last season and makes his season debut Thursday. Every board Jokic takes is one Hartenstein doesn't get, and Oklahoma City is favored by more than seven points at home, so a lopsided score could trim his minutes even further. Hartenstein at Lower 8.5 rebounds rounds out our Underdog NBA picks.
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New to Underdog? Sign up with promo code ALARM to unlock your $75 bonus and more, then put it to work on Thursday's Underdog NBA picks.
Download the Underdog app or visit the site, create your account, and enter promo code ALARM at sign-up. Build your first entry with Maxey and Hartenstein or your own plays from the two-game slate, and your bonus will be added to your account.
Then check back with Fantasy Alarm every day for new Underdog NBA picks and our NBA DFS Projections all season long.