Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Over/Under: 215
Spread: MIL -3
This is not what we expected. Through the first four games of the Eastern Conference Finals, we had multiple blowouts and one-sided affairs and now the biggest stars on each team are injured. To say that it makes building a lineup tricky tonight would be an understatement, but we will do our best to get you there based on the available information. The current assumption is that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be sidelined tonight (confirmed) while Trae Young will make his return after a one-game absence. If either play, there will be questions as to whether or not they will be limited, but we should have a clear roadmap of the beneficiaries if they are sidelined.
INJURIES
*Giannis Antetokounmpo – OUT (knee)
*Trae Young – QUEST (foot)
*Bogdan Bogdanovic – PROB (knee)
*Clint Capela – QUEST (knee)
Player Breakdown
CPT/MVP
Khris Middleton – We have seen variance at the highest level from Middleton so far this postseason and that was certainly on display the last two games as he went from 38 points to 16. The workload will be there, and even more so with Antetokounmpo sidelined. He failed to take advantage of that on Tuesday as the forward shot just six of 17 from the field although he did round out his stat line with eight rebounds and five assists. It’s hard not to consider Middleton here as he steps up to be the go-to option.
Trae Young – Young did return to action in Game 3 after his injury but it was clear the explosiveness wasn’t there despite his 35-point performance. After missing Game Four, the expectation here is that Young returns to action tonight and we know that the offense will be on display once again. The question is though is at the level his explosiveness will return and whether he will be able to improve on his four assists. With that being said, he is the best option on the slate, but I’m not sure he is worth the hit to your salary cap in the captain spot.
Jrue Holiday – With the biggest stars banged up, this is a slate where we can truly go anywhere in the captain spot. Holiday should get a bump here as his usage is one of the highest on the team, to begin with and will only spike without Antetokounmpo. In Game One, Holiday’s offensive upside was on display as he scored 33 points and I would expect a similar role tonight. On Tuesday we saw a well-rounded performance from the point guard with 19 points and nine assists and he should be able to reach the 40-fantasy point mark with ease tonight and there is upside for some more.
Bogdan Bogdanovic – While he is still listed on the injury report, I wouldn’t be too concerned about Bogdanovic and his knee after what we saw on Tuesday. There is a clear bump if Young is sidelined, but if we are going to assume he plays and perhaps is limited, then Bogdanovic stands to benefit. Even if Atlanta is at full strength, a healthy Bogdanovic has value now that he looks healthier and has found his shot again. The swingman put up 20 points on Tuesday while adding five assists and three rebounds while also picking up four steals.
MID-TIER
John Collins – This was a miss on Tuesday as Collins only managed to score four points in 29 minutes of action while grabbing seven rebounds. If Clint Capela is truly sidelined here, then we should be able to upgrade Collins but I think the forward is more reliant on Young being active and penetrating. However, if he gets to spend more time in the paint, double-digit rebounds are a possibility here.
Bobby Portis – In the regular season Portis was a popular pivot if Antetokounmpo was sidelined, and I would expect that trend to continue tonight. Portis has a high of 15 points so far against Atlanta and he played a series high of 20 minutes on Tuesday while scoring seven points and picking up seven rebounds. There is some offensive upside here and Portis’ ability on the boards also helps as there is 30 to 35 fantasy point upside here if everything goes right.
Clint Capela – At least with Capela it is cut and dry whether he will be in the lineup or not. He turned in a solid performance of 15 points and seven rebounds on Tuesday and aside from a few extra rebounds, that is likely where we can expect Capela to finish tonight.
DART THROWS
Kevin Huerter – While Huerter can put up 25 points with ease, it doesn’t happen often and he has had some duds this postseason. Against Milwaukee, he has played 36 minutes in three of the four games (30 in the other game) and the guard turned in a well-rounded performance of 15 points, seven assists, and six rebounds on Tuesday. His playmaking will likely depend on Young’s status and abilities but I would look for him to be involved regardless.
Danilo Gallinari – After scoring 18 points in Game Two, Gallinari failed to capitalize on Young’s absence Tuesday as he scored 10 points in just 19 minutes of action. Even at his best, the forward likely won’t get much past 20 to 25 fantasy points, but the price is right tonight and he could benefit if Capela is sidelined.
P.J. Tucker – Tucker has been getting consistent playing time throughout the postseason thanks to his defensive abilities and he has shown to be a solid DFS contributor at times. The offense hasn’t been there so far against Atlanta, four points per game, but he has averaged six rebounds per game and the playing time is there.
Lou Williams – Williams’ value is directly tied to Young’s status, and if the guard is out I would think about elevating him up to captain status. With Young in the lineup, Williams plays more of a supporting role and is relied on strictly for offense off the bench for about 15 minutes per game. On Tuesday though, he scored 21 points in 35 minutes of play while also handing out eight assists and grabbing five rebounds.
Onyeka Okongwu – If Capela is out Okongwu will see an increase in his playing time and will be a popular value play. In a limited role thus far Okongwu has shown the ability to produce and he is coming off a seven-point, three rebound performance in 14 minutes on Tuesday.